Lol, precisely.

Any idea how much profit sharing (percent of 2015 earnings) would be paid out to each pilot if oil dropped to $30/barrel after eating the hedges for 2015? Also, assuming management doesn't double down on pre-paid engine overhauls and other "use the money instead of paying out too much profit sharing" techniques?

FTB?

Canadian Oil CEO Sees Crude At $30 - Business Insider

That's a tough one b/c with oil that low a significant people that would normally buy a plane ticket might drive if gas prices are way lower.

OPEC is trying to drive the fracking/pipeline group out of the market, and if they succeed, then oil is back up. But I think they are too late. The infrastructure is already there, they can stop production, then start up again.

Couple of things here.

First, fracked wells are not like Saudi wells that can be turned on and off. The production drops off very rapidly once the well is fracked. Once production drops off it can be increased by "servicing" the well which helps, but the production still drops off significantly.

U.S. Shale-Oil Boom May Not Last as Fracking Wells Lack Staying Power - Businessweek


If companies want to wait on production they drill the well then don't frack it. This is called a "completed non-producing well" vs. a "completed producing well". You can see the stats and see how many wells are drilled and waiting to be fracked and how many have been fracked and are producing. So basically U.S. shale producers will stop drilling and fracking if they want to reduce bbls they put into the system.

Second, the amazing thing about the U.S. shale boom is the pace that we as Americans have gained efficiencies in obtaining very expensive oil. I don't have exact numbers, but I know that they have almost cut the cost to get a single well producing in half within the last 4 years. That is an amazing number in the oil world.

It used to take 3 weeks and over 6 million bbls of water to get one well to production stage. Now using zipper frac and eco-pad technologies they can frac 8 wells within the same amount of time using the same amount of water. They are now working on 16 hole pads and recycling water which will further drive down costs. Halliburton is also looking into using CO2 instead of water to frac with. They are saying they believe that will help in the rapid drop off of production vs. using water.

So while right now they are saying U.S. shale producers are not profitable at $60 oil, I think Americans can continue to innovate and drive the costs down to where we can profitably using fracking technology to extract oil at $30bbl.

America will be the worlds leader in energy production within 10 years and the Saudis can't do anything about it.

Compact fusion is going to change all of this though so it won't matter. :)

Exactly! And if the technology behind fracking (etc.) continues to evolve, the companies involved will still be able to remain competitive at lower prices...

Denny

^^^^^^

Much lower prices.

Billionaire Shale Pioneer Sees Drilling Slowdown on Oil Price Drop - Bloomberg

Hamm has said in the past that his company can turn a profit at prices of $50 a barrel. Continental plans to boost output by as much as 29 percent next year, while holding spending at 2014 levels, according to a Nov. 6 company presentation. Hamm declined to say how those plans may change if prices fall further.

In the most profitable areas of the Bakken, producers can turn a profit on average with oil prices above $65.03 a barrel, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Prices may fall to $50 a barrel by early next year, according to Wolfe Research LLC.

Just curse the irony. By the time Delta started hiring pretty and hot, we are old and not.

Iran attacked ISIS with F4's in Eastern Iraq. This is the first time I can ever remember thinking anything Iran did was, "cool."

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/...setgejx1ah.jpg