Ferd,

Me too. If this deal was so bad, I think we would have been much (much) more vocal in opposing it. One letter by Moak, and one letter by congressional members asking for reasonable terms does not a spirited opposition make. I don't care what AMR says about our lobbying: it doesn't look like an effort to kill a deal. Just to make a deal bearable. 5th Freedom rights go away, and we're not in the streets with pitchforks?

And now... we applaud the results. That could tell you we're trying to put a brave face on things and trying not to look even more desperate for a JAL deal. Or maybe not.

Here is another thing I find interesting. Our stock on Friday during the day went up about 50% more than AMR. Our stock Friday after hours went up over 100% more than AMR's. I wonder why.

I don't know the answers to all the questions, but I'm going to sit tight and see what happens. Besides, I've said it before: this maybe a case of "winners lose". As an investor, I want JAL. As a pilot, I'm not sure. Not everything that's bad in the medium-term for Delta is bad for me in the short-term, or long-term. Maybe it's better if we scramble for a competitive response.

 

Re: The choices of flex temps, an analysis was done and approximately 80% of the pilots make the same choice on flex.

Not sure we still have an operable gate conex feature anymore.

 

Ferd's right, hope we got something for the open skies...don't think its going to work well...the 78 was selected for the overflights, anticapating this probable outcome in the Asian market.

 

The answer to your winfall question lies in the future of Tokyo, and of the DC-9. The term "winfall" sort of implies something gained at the expense of someone else, so maybe it's disingenuous to use it.

Let's just say that I think the merger is still a plus, but that I think the fNW guys should breathe a sigh of relief if NRT takes it on the chin, considering the B742 is already toast, and the DC-9's are looking a little tanned.

Again, the merger will probably be a win-win, and I have no problem with it. Now that the SLI is settled, a lot of the fables heard at the hearing are being exposed, and fortunately the bed-time stuff isn't turning into a "Nightmare in the North".

 

Now that there is the 767 in the mix, that might find it's way to the Far East. Great for a market where a 757 is too small, but an A330 is too big. Plus, you don't have to change equipment!

BBQ in SYR - are you talking the Dinosaur BBQ? I haven't been there since I was flying turboprops. Great food there!

 

Heyas Sink,

This is because nobody outside of NWA and a few airliners.net types understood that NRT is more than just a connection point for people going to/from Asia.

With 5th Freedom, NWA was able to solicit and carry Japanese O&D traffic, not just to the US, but to all points in Asia, just as if it was a native Japanese Flag carrier.

This is HUGE. This is something that no other airline (other than UAL, to a limited extent) could do. Did a majority of the traffic go US-Asia at some point? Sure, BUT, what it allowed NWA (and DAL) to do is to "top off" those flights with local traffic. Sure, a lot of it was comparatively low yeild, but it WAS yeild for a seat that would have otherwise gone out empty. Pure profit, in other words. Everybody is so darm US centric, they don't see the big picture.

Now as far as the 5th freedom rights mentioned here:

*Removal of restrictions of 5th freedom rights beyond each country (but approval from 3rd country remains required)


That sounds like a relaxation in 5th freedom restrictions, NOT tightening them. And it states that approval from 3rd country is STILL required...if 5th freedoms are eliminated why state this? This makes it sound like 5th freedoms are still in place.

THAT could be why DAL isn't causing as much of a fuss as they might have...I mean, look at the NMB voting rules dust up, or heck, even the LGA deal ("write your congresscritter! your job is COUNTING on it! Here's a link! Do it NOW!"). When this issue came up in the 90's, NWA brought every trick and legislative effort they could muster, even to the point where non-NWA types noticed what was happening...we're talking full page ads in the Washington Post, every day, for months at a time.

40 slots a day, for the whole world at Haneda will dent NRT traffic, but I'm not guessing quite as much as the pundits might say.

Plus there is the whole slot issue. So what if it's open skies? If you don't have landing slots, it doesn't matter. Just like Heathrow. We can't even fill a DC-9 from ATL to Birmingham, and you're telling me you're going to fill a 787 from Nowheresan, Japan to East Butthole, Minnesota? Ain't going to happen. Traffic flows the way it flows for a reason.

Do we need a partner in Asia? It might help, but I'm not seeing this as the epic fail some are seeing.

Nu

 

Sailing, you are right it was not contactual, it was policy and had not been revoked at anytime...mostly because the company knew it would result in delays and cancelled flights. It was also policy so the "me too" did not apply. As you know DL has changed and will continue the evolution of "right sizing," commuting will become a fact of life. It is interesting that the individuals that say we can't have the policy because of some hypothetical union issue, are the ones that normally have positive space.

 

Agreed, for the reasons you stated.

One unknown is that I saw an article stating that the Japanese eventually want to have international ops out of HND during the daytime, i.e. after the agreement is passed they will (magically) open it up.

And, surprise, surprise, the Japanese carrieres have all the slots they need at HND. Gone is the seventh daily to Osaka (I'm making up an example), in comes a round-trip to ORD. Gone is the third daily to Okinawa. In comes LAX. Etc.

 

...or did I get that wrong, and the bilateral only allows for 40 slots total, forever, from HND to the US?

 

The way I read it is that it's 40 slots to cover ALL international flying, not just to/from the US.

20 go to Japanese carriers. The remaining 20 are divided up amongst everyone else with 4 going to the US.

Not all of those 20 slots going domestically are going to go to the US. My guess is a lot will be to Europe.

Nu