Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
01-08-2010 | 01:28 PM
Gets Weekends Off
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How true is that? TPG was involved with stealing the US Airways' pilots' pension. TPG practically showed the other carriers how to do it. TPG was also heavily involved in Midwest two years ago. How did that turn out?
Last edited by hockeypilot44; 01-08-2010 at 02:14 PM. Reason: gramar
01-08-2010 | 02:00 PM
Works Every Weekend
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From: 737 ATL
01-08-2010 | 02:01 PM
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From: A320
You're correct on the Amex cash. Only $1.5 billion has been delivered so far. $500 million remains to be paid.
Take a look at Delta's Investor Day presentation (it's on Delta.com under Investor Relations). You'll see that June corporate revenue was down 45% YOY. The trend line is encouraging, but that's because the YOY comparables are so bad (Oct-Dec 2008 was awful as well). We're still down about 10.5% full year comparing 2009 with 2007. Those are SEC disclosed facts, not urban legends. Oh, our peak annual revenue was $34 billion in 2008, falling to less than $28 billion this year. While some of that decline (about 30%) was mitigated by lower average fuel prices and lower operating costs due to reduced capacity, the net effect was $4 billion less in cash flow for debt service, fleet renewal, and payraises. Put any of those facts into the premerger standalone Delta/NWA business plans and tell me what they look like.
Take a look at Delta's Investor Day presentation (it's on Delta.com under Investor Relations). You'll see that June corporate revenue was down 45% YOY. The trend line is encouraging, but that's because the YOY comparables are so bad (Oct-Dec 2008 was awful as well). We're still down about 10.5% full year comparing 2009 with 2007. Those are SEC disclosed facts, not urban legends. Oh, our peak annual revenue was $34 billion in 2008, falling to less than $28 billion this year. While some of that decline (about 30%) was mitigated by lower average fuel prices and lower operating costs due to reduced capacity, the net effect was $4 billion less in cash flow for debt service, fleet renewal, and payraises. Put any of those facts into the premerger standalone Delta/NWA business plans and tell me what they look like.
Wall Street and analysts tend to look at a one month period as guidance .... the company reports quarterly results. When you just throw out a number with no qualifiers.... people may tend to believe that revenue was down for the quarter or year over year. I was not stating that the facts you were reporting where in error or urban legend. You have stated that revenue was down 45%.... (it was for June 09... not the quarter or year). I was using numbers but together and given during the investor report that talked about the 4 corner briefing. I thought I heard on the last investor conference call during earnings that the company was projecting about a 20% revenue drop in 2009 over 2008. Thanks for the additional numbers. I will re-research my information.
01-08-2010 | 02:08 PM
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From: A320
I think the main point is that no one knows what would have happened at a standalone Delta in the last year. We may have grown, we may have shrunk, we may have stayed the same. Most analysts think we would have shrunk and probably more than what happened with the merger. It is just a fantasy for someone to say, "but for the merger, my career would have been.....". All you can really say for sure is the pay rates would have been lower, the retirement worse, and I wouldn't have $50,000 worth of stock in my 401K. (I know, I know, it only has value when you sell it)
All of those points and several others have not been lost on me. Although I technically would have retired on the 747-400 under a stand alone NWA, it was never going to happen. Fuel prices, 787's A350's , China , open skies in Asia would have long affected that dynamic before I could grab a fist full of throttles on the 747-400.
01-08-2010 | 02:12 PM
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From: B757/767
My point exactly. They tend to destroy what they touch.
01-08-2010 | 02:15 PM
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01-08-2010 | 02:33 PM
Gets Weekends Off
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01-08-2010 | 02:33 PM
Works Every Weekend
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From: 737 ATL
You're all about managing expectations downward.
Here's something productive that I would add. Our payrates suck. Our retirement sucks. Don't sign any more LOAs or MOUs or codeshare deals or anything else with management that doesn't make progress toward fixing that.
Your last apology for DALPA attacked the critics by saying they favored the Cleavon Little approach from Blazing Saddles. (meet my demands or I'll shoot myself) That's not an accurate analogy however. I think we should throw every roadblock we can think of in front of this JAL thing. It may hurt us but it will also hurt the company. That's the same principle underlying a strike. Mutual pain.
We've been helping management rebuild their empire for long enough now. Its time for a little return on our investment.
01-08-2010 | 02:34 PM
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From: A-320A
Sadly for both Delta and Alaska pilots there wont be much choice in the matter. Once the JAL deal is done look for the loser to go after Alaska. If Delta gets JAL then I think AMR will come after Alaska in a big way. If AMR retains JAL then Delta will move to protect the Alaska feed.
They prefer the current arrangement as they get all of the benefits on owning then with none of the mess, but AMR and LUV are going to be spoiler in that desire.
01-08-2010 | 02:37 PM
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What TPG is doing makes a lot of sense, and it connects dots that could not be connected with words that were being spoken about Republic. It now makes a lot sense why they are siding with Republic and AMR. They are betting against us.
Makes sense to me now. Been waiting for that piece, but have not had time lately to point it out!
Makes sense to me now. Been waiting for that piece, but have not had time lately to point it out!
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