I think everyone knew guys would stay past 60. The big question is what would they do at 62.5 which is when if makes sense to bail out with regards to retirement accounts, Medicare, etc. I think we will see alot more guys start leaving between 62.5 and 65. If the market would rebound a little more that number would go even higher....I think that is what is keeping guys around. Nobody want's to leave when all their investments are still down.

 

Like it or not on the south side, that retirement medical thing seems to prevent a lot of potential retirees from pulling the trigger.

 

Do many or any of the rumors discussed here come to fruiation?

 

Depends which ones you're referring to.

SOME of the rumors on here have been started by devious individuals, just to see if their rumor will make it all the way back around to them.

OTOH, there is something to the whole "where there's smoke, there's fire." Several folks on this board seem to be pretty well connected, and it seems that most (not all) big announcements are led a little bit by chatter on the L & G thread.

In my unscientific observation, AE plans/dates/alignment discussions are the most accurate. Aircraft acquisitions/fleet plans tend to border more on the imaginative end of the spectrum. The accuracy of most other rumors (including hiring rumors) tend to fall somewhere in between. Of course there is a reason for this. AE's WILL happen will some regularity, allowing the rumor sources to appear a little more accurate, where if/when we actually take delivery of aircraft is anyone's guess.

Hope that helps, unless you were being rhetorical, in which case I just wasted 3 minutes of my time

 

Yes. It was rumored LM would run for ALPA National president and he did.

But after spending just a tiny little bit of time with a bonafide 4th floor type, I think the key word I picked up on was briefing book.

So the word on the street is briefing book.

And stuff like 717s, cockpit upgrades, 773s, 748s, 787s, used 772s, white tailed A330s, Guam, buying all of the MD90s possible (which is indeed happening), et. al., is because somewhere somebody (mainly a management pilot who was obviously a former line pilot) has probably gone and done some research and assembled some information that was handed over and put into a briefing book.

Then let's just say said pilot or another pilot or a non-pilot who has friends that are a pilot or who is connected in the Peachtree City club leaks some information and on going activity. It may be presented as "we're totally going to do this!" or "they're looking into..."

Now, that information they worked on may make it into a book, may pass several reviews, might be with Anderson, might make it to the board, might get approved, might not, but it doesn't mean the rumor wasn't a valid possibility.

Now I think there is high level stuff that never comes down the pipeline, such as let's say Airbus came to Delta and pushed the A380. The money guys are not impressed and they say no and therefore nobody below them, the leaking class, ever works on a project related to the A380 and thus never a rumor.

But, as an example, let's say Boeing comes and says, 10 A330s we sure in the hell don't want, do you want them in exchange for eliminating penalties on the 787 and XYZ, and then someone down below in the leaking class (such as crew resources and training) is asked to work up some numbers on 10 more A330s, well, then there is now a juicy possibility for an A330 rumor! But the board might not approve of it. But it's made it to this forum as "I heard that we are looking into buying 10 A330s..." Heck, I've heard A330 rumors on 123.45 while crossing the tracks.

So is what I said true? No freaking clue. I just picked up on the word briefing books and it made me think, huh, I wonder if all of the rumors we hear about are because someone was putting together a briefing book.

Now I'm going to go back to sitting SC.

 

You know the thing about rumors, they really need to be predicated with the key words "I've heard that..." or "Rumor is..."

 

I'm not going to get into what people thought or didn't think about retirements.....

I think most guys are going to stay until close to 65. Why? They are healthy, the job isn't too hard, by the time you're in your 60s you're senior - how hard is the job anyway for a senior guy? He can already drop any trips s/he wants, and because they are senior, they are good trips others will pick up.

Guys are turning 63 next month, I don't see much in the way of a wave of retirements in the last month or two. I'm all for guys staying or leaving - it's their choice and I can't say what I'd do when I turn 60 either, I'm a long way from that.

For my peace of mind, I assume everyone is staying until 65.

 

Dude,

Even if I wanted to, I have not passed my AE bidding class yet. On the last one that came out, they only awarded two captain positions and they were in MSP. Meanwhile, my classmates that bid it last January and May are living la vida loca in NYC:

1.) Holiday's off as a blockholder/regular.
2.) Long LAX, SFO, MIA, LAS, ect. layovers.
3.) 80+ hours a month.

I guess I'm stuck here, which isn't so bad (when I don't have to sit reserve.)


New K

 

Thx both you and forgot to bid have put this subject into a better perspective.

 

They make an ointment for that T...