I'll admit I don't know much about the nature of an epidemic, but don't you think that we have much better medicine now than we did in 1900? It is just another form of the flu. Thousands of people die each year with the normal flu and we don't panic over that so why should we panic over 20 people in Mexico dying from the swine flu? They have already said that the Tamiflu shots are effective at fighting off this virus if you get it so it shouldn't be that big of a fear should it?

FYI, 36,000 people die annually in the U.S. from the flu. http://www.flufacts.com/about/default.aspx

I don't see why 20 people dying in Mexico from a variation of the flu that can be treated with Tamiflu is such a big deal. Recession is ending so the media needs something else to strike fear into the nation.

Good one !
 

Oh that was a good one! http://usera.ImageCave.com/Dr5115/rotfl.gif

Heyas,

Sure, a lot of people every year croak from "the flu"...usually elderly and those who are immunocompromised.

The problem is there are all kinds of influenza. This particular brand of influenza kills the healthy, and THAT is what has people's attention. Some speculate that this is due to the triggering of a "cytokine storm", which I could explain, but you can look it up on Wikipedia just as easily.

Influenza like this can go bad, and bad quickly. When you have the healthy and productive part of your workforce start dropping dead, you have bad problems.

Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) will work, but there have been some cases of resistant strains. Viruses work on a completely different mechanism than bacterial infections, and can grow out of control very rapidly.

It's only been in the last 10 years that they've found ways to really interrupt viral mechanics, and it ain't like getting a shot of penicilin.

Nu

I think i'll stay away from Aeromexico's terminal for a while...

crap, we share the same one in LAX...

Panic isn't rational. That's why it's called "panic", so nice sounding arguments from your government health officials won't necessarily have any impact (assuming you trust them anyway). Panic is also a well-evolved survival mechanism that isn't necessarily bad, either.

Most of the people who die from the flu in the US annually are the old and infirm. Virulent (and this case, new) strains of something like swine flu actually impact the young and healthy disproportionally. As I understand it, their stronger immune systems actually goes into overdrive so much, it kills them trying to fight off the disease.

Officially, the dead count in Mexico is actually over 100, and rising. Considering the comparative backwardness of the Mexican government, the actual number is probably far, far higher. As to the "better drugs" argument, I certainly hope you're right. The fact is though, there's a great deal about the flu and epidemics experts don't know . . . like why the 1976 flu strain just seemed to die out on it's own, for example.

There's already been one school closing in Queens, NY due to several students having been diagnosed with this flu. It's here in the US already, and there's no getting the genie back in the bottle at this point (it's also in Canada, New Zealand, France, and Israel)

In keeping with the "latest and greatest" Delta thread though, the impact is obvious. EU health officials are already recommending against travel to the US and Mexico. Delta stock has taken a pretty big hit this morning. Even if it doesn't spread throughout the general populace, it could really impact the amount of people who want to share a small space in a tube with strangers.

I think this has the potential to derail summer traffic in a significant fashion.

Yeah, I think your right. I remember SARS and the loads really sucked. The good thing is this usually passes quicker than a recession.

The sky is falling!!!!! :eek: :eek:

Well this little issue could cause a lot of issues for us. Given the fact that DAL has decided that we are Fat for the winter and opted not to furlough, a sharp decline in passenger traffic may make them revisit this decision.

Remember that the people that are panicking are the ones that buy tickets to travel. If our loads go through the floor, we could see people on the street.

Let pray this is just a short term issue that the World governments can deal with quickly!

Ya know, it's always something in this industry. I'm sick of worrying. I just don't care anymore.

If your being sarcastic, I agree with you. I don't see why everyone is so concerned about this pig flu thing. However, it looks like the WHO will declare it a pandemic within a couple of days and that will prompt travel bans to countries that are infected. The sky may really be falling for legacy airlines if the WHO declares this a pandemic and people are dying in the U.S.

Some of the "experts" are saying it already meets the definition of a flu pandemic and the WHO is holding off for political reasons. As soon as we see deaths in the U.S. it will be declared a pandemic and travel to the U.S. may be halted until this is dealt with. A travel ban into the U.S. will drive ALL the U.S. legacy airlines into bankruptcy very fast. What would it do to Delta to have ALL international flights halted for a month while this flu things dies down??