Repeat this frequently:

Outsourcing is good for me. Alaska is good for me. Koolaid tastes great.

 

When Wilson picked a very stout Wisconsin team in the off season as his next stop I think it was easy to see Wisconsin 2011 = Auburn 2010, especially given the Big 10 would be even easier than last year. Although, I thought Nebraska might be a threat but it wasn't even close and I don't think UM will be close and OSU has disappeared. It's a green light.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say WIS vs... a 1 loss ALABAMA for the national championship. A 1 loss Alabama leap frogs an undefeated OU because frankly, nobody wants to see OU in a national championship game anymore anyways. Call it the Oklahoma rule, no matter your record, you're not invited to the national championship game. Oh and Clemson and OU may go undefeated and be left out.

As for Tsquare, you thought I was crazy and I might still be crazy because there is a season left to play but I still think UT wins the SEC East. Of course, a lot of that is lucky, who'd though UF would be in the predicament they're in with such a good team?

And to make this thread pertinent, I predict, that despite a low low ball opener that Delta management will press for a quick resolution and probably go with a 40% pilot cost increase in the interest of expediency and ease. It will fall short of restoration or parity. I might add, the company may settle for something above what ALPA asks for knowing the pilots would vote anything less down. That's my ALPA/DPA tweak of the day.

We'll see how long it takes till my:

 

Not directed at anyone in particular. DAL trading at 6.78, this is not what I would consider to be a level to sell.

 

Nope, not with a big Q3 just finished and oil a droppin.

 

Not to change the subject but didn't I read somewhere a while back that we can now allow offline (CASS) jumpseaters to ride in the cockpit on international flights? Looked in the FOM and it still has the old policy. Any ideas where it says this now or am I dreaming? Thanks,

Denny

 

Columbia,

I too think DAL is oversold and close to where I might find it a buy. But, the market is looking at:

1. The reason oil is falling ... an anticipated recession beginning in Europe, then spreading to China and the US. Given the shallow to non existent "recovery" a recession is going to be painful.
2. Whatever happens to American folks like those at Motley Fool will assume applies to Delta.
3. The market will forget Delta's (and the other airlines') capacity restraint. There usually would be about 20% greater capacity out there.
4. Delta's seats are a perishable good. Our schedule is brought to market and if the market turns, our business is one of the first to feel it.

I think DAL is setting up for a short term trade. The technical charts show a nearly bottomless bottom (going back into bankruptcy). I don't think so and even if that is the result, there are a lot of numbers out today that point to a 4th quarter recovery. Buy on the fear, sell on the upswing prior to the news.

 

Whatever the opener ends up being, do you think they will pretend inflation doesn't exist and base that percentage as an "over the life of" statistical lie? If so they could easily ask for "30%" while giving us a cost neutral contract or less. Compounding negative interest is a beast.

That is why we need to hold them accountable by not falling for the soundbites anymore. Full expected inflation, compounded yearly, over the life of the contract, needs to be backed out of any and all claims of "a raise over the life of" nonsense.

 

You are assuming progress at the table though. If the opener and/or the over all tone of expectations we are getting from DALPA suggests that all we can expect is a small raise with partial to maybe full COLA year over year with minor work rule improvements and maybe a give back or two here and there, and no scope improvements, is that really worth keeping said bargaining agent?

And if DALPA can't/won't get SWA plus reasonable premiums plus full COLA over the life of the contract, significant scope recapture (we will be watching for the "meet and confer" as that better happen and there's too many parties involved for it to be kept secret) plus work rule improvements, etc then why keep them around?

Because no matter how bad it ends up being, it theoretically could have been worse? Wasn't that Leo the Ceo's mantra for why he deserved massive retention bonuses (before he left)?

 

Not going to disagree with you on this one.

 

There is no suggestion, there is no detailed analysis of pilot sentiment and desires until the survey results are known.

BTW, I flew with 2 pilots in the last 30 days that think we should only approve an extension with minor/no adjustments to our current PWA... I've only flown with 5 guys in that time span.....YIKES! I hope my sampling isn't a picture of the overall sentiment....... I know my thresholds are WAY HIGHER than those piggybacking slackers at SWA! (think FDX+ 20-25%)