Shiz, I posted about that over a week ago. It is one thing I can see DAL doing. Buying the DFW and MIA hubs and getting everything they can from NYC. I figured if we got DFW, they could shut down CVG, MSP, and SLC. It would give them two heartland hubs the four corner posts, and MIA. (MIA is really not needed, but the traffic to SA would be awesome)

MSP could survive this, but even as a profitable hub, it makes more sense to have two and offer mainline service to almost every city. There could be significant job cuts, but after looking at how I would envision the route networks with DFW most of the cities could be served by mainline, and the 70/76 seat jets we have. We would not need eagle and most of the DCI carriers for lift.

If I was RA, I would be watching AMR, wanting DFW, and MIA and hoping that B6 and LCC got the parts of NYC that were left. I would allow DAL to get the B6 terminal there with no ATI issues. To me the slot swap was always about de-conflicting LCC, AMR and B6 in NYC.

 

Think DFW would be the last to go before all other bases, NWA held MSP, DAL held ATL, USAir held PHL don't think it will happen. For the DFW commuters it would be nice, but remember...commuting is a choice

 

I think every USA Today I picked up at the beginning and mid part of last decade had an article about the pending liquidation of UAL. So with that in mind i just don't foresee AMR liquidating and a land grab occurring.

But let's just say that happens. I go with whatever gloopy says.

But as far as hubs in a no AMR scenario, I think Delta Air Lines will have 2 primary hubs where you see a lot of bulk domestic and international connection flying- ATL and DTW. I think DTW is your north/northeast hub without the headaches of NYC and ATL is your FL-rest of U.S. gateway. Both have capacity and international service and if they can work together it's pretty brilliant for connections.

Coming in third would be DFW as a mid-american hub giving you the O&D of DAL/HOU but also great east-west connection flying. All 3 of those are massive and well oriented to take the bulk population in the east and move them to wherever they want to go. It's too far west to trump DTW/ATL in connection possibilities when you consider the population locations but I still contend it's a fantastic location.

NYC like LAX gives you access to those cities. That's priceless but it's more O&D to me then connections. SEA gives you a Asia-West Coast feed while DTW gives you Asia-East Coast feed. MIA would give you SA-U.S. feed, again priceless.

As to MSP, SLC and CVG? CVG is still too close to big bad DTW. SLC still gives you SLC, why give it up? I think MSP is still your midwest hub and why give it up? Less international flying? maybe.

And I really only draw my conclusions looking at the population maps.



Still don't see that happening with AMR nor do I enjoy talking about it.

 

AA ain't going anywhere and will survive. At worst they will go ch11, shred the contracts, start a new B scale and kick our ass. Think about competing with an airline with AAs hubs, global network(oneworld) and a new efficient fleet. Now consider that they will have LCCs pay and workrules. No bueno for the profession.

 

They already work for LCC pay and workrules...

Agreed that AMR is going nowhere but possible BK.

 

Um, excuse me. So do we.

 

Did I say we didn't, newKnow esq.?

 

Nerd;

There are a couple of fallacies in your analysis IMO. First, I agree they will survive despite the 4th floor's apparent scheming to the contrary. The management team at AMR is awful, I mean they just f-in suck. They have painted themselves in a corner by focusing on their stock performance and bonuses, very much at the expense of running a company. Pilot pay does not make or break an airline, management, either good or bad does. The new fuel efficient fleet has to be actually flying in service and generating revenue to be competitive, until that happens, its just orders for press release. I agree that if AMR pilots vote for LCC pay and work rules, that will complicate our section 6.

If AMR enters ch11, which analysts are predicting, they (AMR management) have lost control and anything is possible. Who knows what handshake deals have already taken place with creditors and other airlines.

 

It is hard to see how they would get anything other than a staple even based on a ratioed list (all their A/C are smaller than our smallest A/C). I would think that a staple with credit towards years of service (you could have someone at the bottom of the list on 12th year Pay) might be acceptable to them. And even on a ratioed list they might have a few captains that would end up with something a little higher.

 

I suppose you didn't, Mr. Hostile (argumentative) witness.