You forgot-->"Silence the Bell"

TEN

 

tis true

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzY9a-WmE6o


What Top Gun is really about.

 

Looks like there is a new projected retirements list out.

Only 663 retiring over the five year period, 2012-2016, for an average of only 132/year.

Barring an economic recovery, which results in growth, it could be another four or five years of stagnation considering that we have over a 1000 guys out on MIL/LOA/SIC. Obviously, some of the SIC guys might not return, but you would think that the majority of the MIL/LOA guys are going to return fairly shortly and they represent almost 35% of that number.

At least once we hit 2017 and beyond, things should start looking better...

 

doesnt that assume everyone goes to 65? which is worst case scenario right?

 

Well - I think it's a very realistic scenario. Some guys are leaving early, but not many.

 

the majority of CA's i fly with have no intention on doing so, i guess we'll see. With that said the guys i fly with are MEM guys and are being forced into commuting etc

 

Yep. When (not if) this massive money printing fiat Keynesian bubble economy experiment fails it will be the biggest global mega-depression (in the form of long term stagflation, not anything Mad Max, etc) ever seen on a long term basis and China will be the hardest hit by far. This little fake stock rally built on the booby trap foundation of debt/stimulus and liquidity by edict is a great time to bail out of the market before all this fake wealth goes to "money heaven". There may be a little more upside before the fall, but realistically this is a good floor to get off on.

As for DL, we need to be able to compete and win. Everyone, not just "HVC's". We need to win coach pax and even belly cargo to survive the new economic reality that's coming. We need to take back control of our brand and wind down these inflexible long term outsourcing contracts and start insourcing. If we start it now and do it right, we might be able to avoid furloughs and maybe hire even as we shrink (and we will shrink...the entire industry will for a while before it grows again) and do so with a respectable contract of SWA plus reasonable premiums including scope. Our brand just may depend on it.

 

I think most guys that say they are leaving around 61/62 are wishful thinking. They are going to get to that point and realize that they are going to need some extra money for their retirement. College tuition has wiped them out and they are going to want to recover from that. They have decent seniority so they can build pretty easily.

I hear a lot of guys say 62. But I have my doubts. I hate to say it, but most guys probably just have nothing better to do. Of course this doesn't only apply to pilots, but that whole age group. The rare few actually will actual retire at 60 and go fishing, travel, and visit their grandchildren.

 

Buy on fear, sell on greed.

The doom and gloom is getting old in this country. You should probably get out of aviation and work for the media. If you are able to predict the market and world economy so well, why are you wasting your time flying airplanes? You could be a millionaire pretty easily.