Any "Latest & Greatest" about Delta?
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Looks like there is a new projected retirements list out.
Only 663 retiring over the five year period, 2012-2016, for an average of only 132/year.
Barring an economic recovery, which results in growth, it could be another four or five years of stagnation considering that we have over a 1000 guys out on MIL/LOA/SIC. Obviously, some of the SIC guys might not return, but you would think that the majority of the MIL/LOA guys are going to return fairly shortly and they represent almost 35% of that number.
At least once we hit 2017 and beyond, things should start looking better...
Only 663 retiring over the five year period, 2012-2016, for an average of only 132/year.
Barring an economic recovery, which results in growth, it could be another four or five years of stagnation considering that we have over a 1000 guys out on MIL/LOA/SIC. Obviously, some of the SIC guys might not return, but you would think that the majority of the MIL/LOA guys are going to return fairly shortly and they represent almost 35% of that number.
At least once we hit 2017 and beyond, things should start looking better...
Also, there will be a FOM change soon that allows two over 60 guy's to be in a control seat for TO/LNDG on international flights
Not reading the PWA, but I believe the automatic release is only if you are going on to golden days. If you are going on to "off days" you must call after 1200 to get an official release.
Contract gurus' ??
Last edited by johnso29; 12-02-2011 at 01:38 PM.
Not reading the PWA, but I believe the automatic release is only if you are going on to golden days. If you are going on to "off days" you must call after 1200 to get an official release.
Contract gurus' ??
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
In light of these numbers, I'll repost this math. The company can shrink/outsource 200 jobs/year without even trying. We ABSOLUTELY need to recover scope in this next contract. Anyone who is interested in moving up on the seniority list needs to vote NO to a status-quo Section 1.
One scenario: company gives another little bit of flying to AS. ALPA and MGT: it's nothing, just .5% of our flying and plus it helps us make money. Company finds a way to end around the AF JV restrictions. DALPA and MGT: don't worry, they are only out of compliance by 1%...we will give them a break for now because we are actually making money. Company pulls back flying by another 1% YOY like in this AE. ALPA and MGT: well we have to do this. This is a bad economy and look how high fuel prices are. Company replaces a few more 88/90 routes with the big RJs they already have. ALPA and MGT: don't be concerned, it's only .5% of our flying, and plus look at all the 50 seaters we are parking!
Well, none of those sound too horrible, but add up those block hour cuts. 12,000 x (.5% + 1% + 1% + .5%) = 360 pilots not needed in a year. And how many retirements do we have coming, on average? I bet a the next 5+ years (maybe even 10) would average to around 360. So I don't put too much stock in the consolation "it'll happen soon enough, and once they start hiring they won't be able to stop."
"Show me the money" is great, but you damn well better show me an iron-clad scope wallet to put that money in. We gained a little stock in the merger, but I guarantee we lost much, much more than that in $ and in QOL as we have stagnated and slipped backwards.
One scenario: company gives another little bit of flying to AS. ALPA and MGT: it's nothing, just .5% of our flying and plus it helps us make money. Company finds a way to end around the AF JV restrictions. DALPA and MGT: don't worry, they are only out of compliance by 1%...we will give them a break for now because we are actually making money. Company pulls back flying by another 1% YOY like in this AE. ALPA and MGT: well we have to do this. This is a bad economy and look how high fuel prices are. Company replaces a few more 88/90 routes with the big RJs they already have. ALPA and MGT: don't be concerned, it's only .5% of our flying, and plus look at all the 50 seaters we are parking!
Well, none of those sound too horrible, but add up those block hour cuts. 12,000 x (.5% + 1% + 1% + .5%) = 360 pilots not needed in a year. And how many retirements do we have coming, on average? I bet a the next 5+ years (maybe even 10) would average to around 360. So I don't put too much stock in the consolation "it'll happen soon enough, and once they start hiring they won't be able to stop."
"Show me the money" is great, but you damn well better show me an iron-clad scope wallet to put that money in. We gained a little stock in the merger, but I guarantee we lost much, much more than that in $ and in QOL as we have stagnated and slipped backwards.
Sad thing is, your numbers are off...
For the current compliance period we are 8-9% below AFKLM/AZ and projected to stay that way next year. The PWA requirement for 50% won't kick in till 2014. We might just come into compliance in a few years by having AFKLM/AZ shrink.
With MOU14 we got promised something in the future (50% flying in 2014) and gave up our present rights (no ability to enforce a production balance from April 2011 to March 2014)
Ironically the dysfunctional family over at airways actually has a capacity floor for flying and the company can't cut anymore...
I happen to think we can do better, that shouldn't be a controversial thought, that should be the mission objective!
Cheers
George
P.S. I'll use your math
10,000 Delta pilots (cause we keep getting smaller)
Delta capacity in EASKs is 8-9% below AFKLM/AZ's
Makes for 800-900 pilots, no big deal, right!
Last edited by georgetg; 12-02-2011 at 11:54 AM. Reason: Added math
One thing to remember is that we are having an increasing number of over 60 fo's. I have been doing a lot of line checks for these guy's recently.
Also, there will be a FOM change soon that allows two over 60 guy's to be in a control seat for TO/LNDG on international flights
Also, there will be a FOM change soon that allows two over 60 guy's to be in a control seat for TO/LNDG on international flights
Somebody on here mentioned that regardless of the ASM split between us and AF/KLM/AZ, the revenue split will be 50/50. Is that true? If so, it would seem that Af/KLM/AZ would want to get their flying into compliance ASAP. They are bearing the production costs of 58% of the flying, yet only getting 50% of the revenue.
Yep. When (not if) this massive money printing fiat Keynesian bubble economy experiment fails it will be the biggest global mega-depression (in the form of long term stagflation, not anything Mad Max, etc) ever seen on a long term basis and China will be the hardest hit by far. This little fake stock rally built on the booby trap foundation of debt/stimulus and liquidity by edict is a great time to bail out of the market before all this fake wealth goes to "money heaven". There may be a little more upside before the fall, but realistically this is a good floor to get off on.
As for DL, we need to be able to compete and win. Everyone, not just "HVC's". We need to win coach pax and even belly cargo to survive the new economic reality that's coming. We need to take back control of our brand and wind down these inflexible long term outsourcing contracts and start insourcing. If we start it now and do it right, we might be able to avoid furloughs and maybe hire even as we shrink (and we will shrink...the entire industry will for a while before it grows again) and do so with a respectable contract of SWA plus reasonable premiums including scope. Our brand just may depend on it.
As for DL, we need to be able to compete and win. Everyone, not just "HVC's". We need to win coach pax and even belly cargo to survive the new economic reality that's coming. We need to take back control of our brand and wind down these inflexible long term outsourcing contracts and start insourcing. If we start it now and do it right, we might be able to avoid furloughs and maybe hire even as we shrink (and we will shrink...the entire industry will for a while before it grows again) and do so with a respectable contract of SWA plus reasonable premiums including scope. Our brand just may depend on it.
People think this is nuts. Why? Because they believe the value assigned the paper they call money. It would not be surprised to see a lot of debt forgiveness between governments. It allows the paper to still be used as currency, and the current governments and political systems throughout the world to stay in power. Our crisis is about debt, and as soon as the Europe, US, China, and Japan realize that the paper currencies that only have value in their promise to pay the debt are about ready to implode, we will see a lot of government to government and bank to bank loan/debt modification/forgiveness to allow the fiat money supply to continue. We trade paper with little to no backing anyway.
The world's people will go on without much of a hiccup if this occurs because after all we live and work based upon a piece of paper that someone else assigns value to. We cal always inflate our way out of it, but the current debt crunch is so large that drastic measures may need to be taken.
Heck our Fed is backing the Euro right now. When this fails, there will be another extreme measure. The markets may balk, but when they realize that their good deal goes with the current governments of the world, they will begrudgingly play along. Of course this may take a few more decades to be realized, but inflating our way out of this debt would be very painful for the average citizen, and has dangerous repercussions. If they want the world to "right" itself, the paper fiat mediums will have to be adjusted. How and when this will happen is unknown, but I do agree, the current trajectory is unsustainable.
80, no tin foil hat, but one must realize that all of the major governments and their banks own a lot of each others' paper. They can create a solution that keeps them and their way in power.
Somebody on here mentioned that regardless of the ASM split between us and AF/KLM/AZ, the revenue split will be 50/50. Is that true? If so, it would seem that Af/KLM/AZ would want to get their flying into compliance ASAP. They are bearing the production costs of 58% of the flying, yet only getting 50% of the revenue.
Because all parties agreed to this, a new three year reporting window was stated in April of this year and will not end until March 2014. At any time that the EASK balance is above 49.75% the parties are considered to be in compliance of the new agreement and a new three year reporting window starts. There is no look back to the previous years. Current projections show us being there in 2013. Currently we are on a three year average of about 48.3%.
City pairs like SEA-CDG are going to us because they want the balance to be in compliance for the reasons you stated.
This JV is a percentage only JV it does not have EASK floors. We could conceivably get in to compliance as both parties pull capacity. The change from our percentage of 51.7% to 50% and a new three year reporting window that includes AZ, were agreed to in MOU 14. It modified LOA 16.
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From: Boeing Hearing and Ergonomics Lab Rat, Night Shift
Somebody on here mentioned that regardless of the ASM split between us and AF/KLM/AZ, the revenue split will be 50/50. Is that true? If so, it would seem that Af/KLM/AZ would want to get their flying into compliance ASAP. They are bearing the production costs of 58% of the flying, yet only getting 50% of the revenue.
And in this JV it is possible for Delta to make money without having to shoulder the "burden of flying."
So Delta is "less interested" in fixing the imbalance.
(and they don't have to worry about it until after March 31, 2014)
The Transatlantic JV Protocol specifically states that each pilot group can only bring up issues with the respective corporation...
AFKLM/AZ makes money because the JFK-Berlin pax now connects via AMS or CDG. The transatlantic profit is still shared 50-50, but the Inter-European beyond profit is not an even split. AF or KLM get to fill their European network with Delta connecting pax from the cancelled European destinations.
(how many city-pairs did Delta cancel and how many city-pairs did AFKLM/AZ cancel? Who provides the feed for the Transatlantic JV partners SEA SFO and LAX flights? Who will feed the upcoming Virgin Australia JV?)
Cheers
George
Last edited by georgetg; 12-02-2011 at 12:25 PM. Reason: Speeeeliiing profit vs revenu
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Somebody on here mentioned that regardless of the ASM split between us and AF/KLM/AZ, the revenue split will be 50/50. Is that true? If so, it would seem that Af/KLM/AZ would want to get their flying into compliance ASAP. They are bearing the production costs of 58% of the flying, yet only getting 50% of the revenue.
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