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Interesting to say the least.......
The Export-Import Bank of the United States gave an $84 million loan to Brazilian airline VRG Linhas Aereas (GOL) to support engine maintenance services by Atlanta-based Delta TechOps.
GOL will ship engines from Sao Paulo City to Atlanta, where Delta Air Lines Inc.’s (NYSE: DAL) maintenance, repair, and overhaul unit will take care of heavy maintenance. In December 2010, GOL inked a deal with Delta to perform heavy maintenance on GOL’s CFM56-7B engines from its Boeing 737 next generation aircraft fleet. Delta TechOps will provide GOL with up to 253 scheduled engine removals and additional unscheduled removals. Ex-Im Bank’s loan guarantee will cover the first two years of GOL’s five-year contract with Delta TechOps. In December 2011, Delta reported its plans to invest $100 million for a minority a stake in GOL as part of a long-term exclusive commercial alliance. Ex-Im Bank loans $84M to GOL for Delta work - Atlanta Business Chronicle |
Originally Posted by Razorback flyer
(Post 1164537)
Absolutely correct. We’ve had 600+ pilots depart the property from 2009-2011. I find it hard to believe that less will leave in the next 3 years. Projections from R&I about a year ago had roughly 750 pilots leaving from 2012 – 2014 (based on 45% leaving prior to 65, which seemed to jive with the data on when pilots were actually punching out at the time.) Add some more for lead time (a member of the crew resources team said about 12-16 months to replace a retiree, though that was a few years ago,) plus extra bodies we likely need for the rest rules, (plus elimination of recovery obligations) and you could easily see us being 1000 pilots behind the curve by the time the sun comes up in 2015. We actually look like we will have a net *gain* in airframes in 2012, and stay basically status quo in 2013.
So as it stands right now, they basically have 2 choices going forward: Hire fairly soon, or continue to reduce mainline block hours. If they don’t, this summer will likely be “interesting,” with overheating likely occurring next summer, and the chance of a full blown operational meltdown in 2014. I know they state we have a surplus, but I think they overstate how large it is, and I expect that will evaporate within 18 months. Plus, you actually need a surplus to have the operational flexibility that network demands. I think you’re also correct in that this is being put out to manage expectations. They need to be careful, though, as this could backfire. Faced with a bleak prognosis for advancement such as this, some of the members of the bottom of the list may begin to “shop around.” Of course, there may be additional reasons for their methods. If we were to acquire something (another airline or piece of one,) there would likely be redundancy, and being lean to short when that happened would help to minimize that. As everyone has stated, there’s probably one more shoe to fall in the U.S. airline consolidation game, and it likely hinges on what happens to AMR – which I think everyone believes will be decided towards the end of the year. Crew Resources is just publishing what is "known" at the current time. We are about 1000 bodies over. With no real "growth" they do not see a need. Now our international block hr plan is going to increase steadily towards 2014 and if you combine this with retirements, it will drive hiring. Add a narrowbody jet order, or any equipment staying around, and they will need bodies. I suspect that we will see a need nlt than next spring. I would be surprised to see them not hire this winter, but if they plan on acquiring an airline or parts of an airline, there is no need to hire. They most certainly would run the operation on the red line waiting for that. |
Originally Posted by acl65pilot
(Post 1164500)
Gloopy, I disagree. DAL just agreed to this on a 1 for 1 with them. This is a new deal. Previous deals were 2 for 1 on 50's for 76 seat jets. DAL seems to be boxing themselves in to a corner wrt to 50 seat replacement. I am sure they will push us for this relief stating that the agreements require a 1 for 1. Well, they just penned it. To me that is significant.
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Originally Posted by Razorback flyer
(Post 1164537)
Absolutely correct. We’ve had 600+ pilots depart the property from 2009-2011. I find it hard to believe that less will leave in the next 3 years. Projections from R&I about a year ago had roughly 750 pilots leaving from 2012 – 2014 (based on 45% leaving prior to 65, which seemed to jive with the data on when pilots were actually punching out at the time.) Add some more for lead time (a member of the crew resources team said about 12-16 months to replace a retiree, though that was a few years ago,) plus extra bodies we likely need for the rest rules, (plus elimination of recovery obligations) and you could easily see us being 1000 pilots behind the curve by the time the sun comes up in 2015. We actually look like we will have a net *gain* in airframes in 2012, and stay basically status quo in 2013.
So as it stands right now, they basically have 2 choices going forward: Hire fairly soon, or continue to reduce mainline block hours. If they don’t, this summer will likely be “interesting,” with overheating likely occurring next summer, and the chance of a full blown operational meltdown in 2014. I know they state we have a surplus, but I think they overstate how large it is, and I expect that will evaporate within 18 months. Plus, you actually need a surplus to have the operational flexibility that network demands. I think you’re also correct in that this is being put out to manage expectations. They need to be careful, though, as this could backfire. Faced with a bleak prognosis for advancement such as this, some of the members of the bottom of the list may begin to “shop around.” Of course, there may be additional reasons for their methods. If we were to acquire something (another airline or piece of one,) there would likely be redundancy, and being lean to short when that happened would help to minimize that. As everyone has stated, there’s probably one more shoe to fall in the U.S. airline consolidation game, and it likely hinges on what happens to AMR – which I think everyone believes will be decided towards the end of the year. While I agree that there will be more consolidation, I think we're running out of capacity to shed unless something very negative happens to the economy (which is very possible but so far is not what's going on today). Any more capacity dicipline beyond what we and others have already done will be instantly be backfilled by predator LCC's with plummeting unit costs because of their future growth that we'll be funding compared to our higher costs from self imposed stagnation. We can't keep burining the furniture to heat the house forever. Today's "pull capacity, make more profits" will soon become "pull capacity and lose permanant revenue" and I think we're getting really cose to those lines intersecting. When they do, something is going to have to give. The LCC's have many, many hundreds of growth mainline aircraft on order. The only way for them to get even a significant minority of that collective fantasy order book is for it to come out of the flying legacies are currently doing. Someone is going to have to lose and lose big. I hope we're not selling out the medium and long term just to wow the crackberry day traders for a few more quarters with the tantalizing financials of unsustainability by canabalizing tomorrow's posterity for today's conference call. |
Originally Posted by SailorJerry
(Post 1163896)
At what level though? Regionals, or the Majors who have had the opportunity to cherry pick for the better park of a decade? I really hope we didn't hire a bunch of substandard pilots in 2010.
One only has to look as far as the safety record in India to tell you what a chronic pilot shortage gets you. Completely agree with you about safety inertia too, or as I call it the kind of luck that wakes you up in the middle of the night. |
Originally Posted by acl65pilot
(Post 1164542)
Fyi; the company is stating that the get an increase of 1% of the new rest rules. Now I am sure they are just modeling after the rules and not the PWA, but that is what they have said.
Crew Resources is just publishing what is "known" at the current time. We are about 1000 bodies over. With no real "growth" they do not see a need. Now our international block hr plan is going to increase steadily towards 2014 and if you combine this with retirements, it will drive hiring. Add a narrowbody jet order, or any equipment staying around, and they will need bodies. I suspect that we will see a need nlt than next spring. I would be surprised to see them not hire this winter, but if they plan on acquiring an airline or parts of an airline, there is no need to hire. They most certainly would run the operation on the red line waiting for that. And I still can't see us being 1000 pilots fat unless that's a once again out of context statistic calling the gap between the natural ebb and flow of peak summer and trough winter staffing a "surplus" but that's hardly honnest accounting. As for the merger aspect of it all, maybe if we buy/merge with AA and/or USAir (both of which I highly doubt) there would be a surplus, but even then much of that would be at the regional levels. A B6 merger with an outright integration of operations would create the biggest surplus but I really don't see us doing that just for a so so terminal and being forced to gift massive capacity to SWA. If we gobble up Hawaiian and/or AS, far more likely, I doubt there would be any measurable overlap that could be cut to create a surplus. Where would it come from? HI is only 400 or so pilots total and AS has very little overlap with us (thanks to our generosity). |
Originally Posted by chuck416
Seriously. Is that YOUR plan. "...the kind of luck that wakes you up in the middle of the night..."? Exactly what rock were you found under anyway... Of course it's my plan. Safety won't improve once you find your(ego)self immune to risk. |
Originally Posted by Razorback flyer
(Post 1164537)
Absolutely correct. We’ve had 600+ pilots depart the property from 2009-2011. I find it hard to believe that less will leave in the next 3 years. Projections from R&I about a year ago had roughly 750 pilots leaving from 2012 – 2014 (based on 45% leaving prior to 65, which seemed to jive with the data on when pilots were actually punching out at the time.) Add some more for lead time (a member of the crew resources team said about 12-16 months to replace a retiree, though that was a few years ago,) plus extra bodies we likely need for the rest rules, (plus elimination of recovery obligations) and you could easily see us being 1000 pilots behind the curve by the time the sun comes up in 2015. We actually look like we will have a net *gain* in airframes in 2012, and stay basically status quo in 2013.
So as it stands right now, they basically have 2 choices going forward: Hire fairly soon, or continue to reduce mainline block hours. If they don’t, this summer will likely be “interesting,” with overheating likely occurring next summer, and the chance of a full blown operational meltdown in 2014. I know they state we have a surplus, but I think they overstate how large it is, and I expect that will evaporate within 18 months. Plus, you actually need a surplus to have the operational flexibility that network demands. I think you’re also correct in that this is being put out to manage expectations. They need to be careful, though, as this could backfire. Faced with a bleak prognosis for advancement such as this, some of the members of the bottom of the list may begin to “shop around.” Of course, there may be additional reasons for their methods. If we were to acquire something (another airline or piece of one,) there would likely be redundancy, and being lean to short when that happened would help to minimize that. As everyone has stated, there’s probably one more shoe to fall in the U.S. airline consolidation game, and it likely hinges on what happens to AMR – which I think everyone believes will be decided towards the end of the year. When a large number of guys have Master's Degrees, Delta can't honestly expect for them to be content with a ten year span of being a FO on entry level equipment and making less than they were in the 1990's. A pay cut is one thing, this sort of stagnation is something else. It took several displacements to get me to where I am today. While Richard might enjoy sitting at C E Woolman's desk, none of of kid ourselves with nostalgic notions about the way the Company sees itself. Delta is a brand manager which cares not who makes the product. In turn, our loyalty is about as deep as an excel spread-sheet. We will do a good job while we are here. When it is time to move on, it will be time to move on. ACL is the only reason I'm here now. Hey, ACL, my projections on stagnation post merger, was I right, or was I right? |
Originally Posted by SailorJerry
(Post 1164560)
Apparently the rock that disagrees with your rock. You're obviously very certain in your abilities to not cause a fatal accident. Kudos to you. You deserve a 60% raise. Hey someone get Chuck here a raise.
Of course it's my plan. Safety won't improve once you find your(ego)self immune to risk. |
Originally Posted by acl65pilot
(Post 1164542)
Fyi; the company is stating that the get an increase of 1% of the new rest rules. Now I am sure they are just modeling after the rules and not the PWA, but that is what they have said.
Crew Resources is just publishing what is "known" at the current time. We are about 1000 bodies over. With no real "growth" they do not see a need. Now our international block hr plan is going to increase steadily towards 2014 and if you combine this with retirements, it will drive hiring. Add a narrowbody jet order, or any equipment staying around, and they will need bodies. I suspect that we will see a need nlt than next spring. I would be surprised to see them not hire this winter, but if they plan on acquiring an airline or parts of an airline, there is no need to hire. They most certainly would run the operation on the red line waiting for that. |
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