Show me the errors. Please.

 

Bolded your estimate.

I thought Profit Sharing was "at risk pay"....yet you include it.

That is called "intellectual dishonesty". You know it's a false premise yet you include it.

How many times does this grass roots effort to save our jobs have to say:

IT'S NOT ABOUT THE PAY! It's about the concessions!

So let's just sit back, get parked by the NMB, cash our profit sharing and say...

 

I'll take a stab...

Your TA PS % is too high. $600M is too high. (definition change) The PTIX should be less $231M Management Incentive plan times whatever increase you think management will get for their performance in a year where they make $6B. Let's say it's a 30% raise. That would make PTIX $6B-($231Mx130%)=$5.7B. This means $570M PS.

If we get a raise of 14-21%, the wage pool increases by that amount for at least a third of us. But your wage pool is too low. It's closer to $5.5B. 1/3x$5.5Bx121%+$5.5B=$7.7B wage pool (for 2018 as an example)
$570M/$7.7B=7.7% not 15%
It's even less if the other employees get a raise.

So your 15% estimates for TA PS are too high.

Also, $950M/$5.5B=17.3%. So your C2012 PS is too high as well.

As a fact check, in 2014 we had a PS% of a little less than 17%. That was with a PTIX of $5.853B (before adjustments it was $4.5B as reported by press)

You may want to re run the total compensation numbers using a wage pool closer to actual. $4B is too low.

 

What would 1B look like as a straight pay raise? Rough mental math gives me $35/$22k) (ca/fo) over 3 yrs. Can't be right- our "historic contract" is our current contract adjusted for inflation!!

 

I agree the PTIX calculation for TA 2015 is high, I don't have the details on future Management compensation.

Our share of the wage pool is 37.5%. Corrected for future increase this could go up but we are 12500 of 80000 domestic employees, they will get raises to if their profit sharing is reduced.

Based on Q1 at $136M and Q2 at $400M profit sharing expense we are $536M for the first half of the year with the good quarters coming. This number outpaces the total 1.1B from last year by 22%.

These are all moving targets. Would you agree that the premises is correct. What would you use for wage pool numbers and profit sharing?

 

Current contract wage pool should remain unchanged, $5.5B. If you want to add effect of other employee groups getting a raise and us not over the next 3 years, it might look like:
2016 $5.5B+(2/3x$5.5Bx4%) = $5.65B
for a 4% non contract raise
2017 $5.65B+(2/3x$5.65Bx4%) = $5.8B
2017 $5.8+(2/3x$5.8Bx4%) = $5.95B
Although fairly, that decreases the PTIX for each of those years by the respective amounts of $150M, $300M, and $450M

Similarly, the TA changes the wage pool too. If we get raises and the other employee groups don't, it would look like this:
2016: $5.5B+(1/3x$5.5Bx14.5%)= $5.77B
2017: $5.77B+(1/3x$5.77Bx3%)=$5.83B
2018: $5.83B+(1/3x$5.83Bx3%)= $5.89B

If we add in other employee groups getting a 4% raise each year in addition to our raises, the TA pool jumps to:
2016:$5.91B
2017:$6.13B
2018:$6.35B

 

What is profit sharing? Why did they agree to it in the beginning? Why do they want to change the terms of the agreement? And why did they want the contract done so early? Why did they want to give us a 8% pay raise early?

If a 6th grader can answer the questions, or if you can figure out between the OM and landing, it's probably safe to say go around on this TA.

 

If you take the above wage pool increases and subtract them out of a $6B PTIX, you get calculations like this:
C2012
2016 PTIX $5.73B PS $896M % 15.6%
2017 PTIX $5.67B PS $884M % 15.6%
2018 PTIX $5.89B PS $872M % 15.5%

TA (assuming conservatively management incentive plan cost of $250M every year)
2016 PTIX $5.59B PS $534M % 9%
2017 PTIX $5.37B PS $512M % 8.3%
2018 PTIX $5.15B PS $490M % 7.7%

 

Let me correct some fat fingered math:
1/3x$5.5Bx ----21%-----+$5.5B=$5.885B
$570m/5.885B= 9.7% vs 15%

 

Would you guys for yes for this TA if the only change was to keep the TA's PS reduction and pay rate increase?

I know I don’t have a dog in this fight as of right now but since I am waiting for a class date I do have an invested interest in how things go on this TA. I personally think that if they took out all of the concession and only did the swap of PS for Pay rates it would be good. Pay rates increase protect you for low profit times. So as long as there is a raise after you take out PS it is a plus for the Pilots.

I would be a no vote purely because of the concession during a time when things are on a major upswing in pilots favor. We were supposed to have a lot more 200 at Endeavor but we can staff them. There are very few new pilots entering the airline world. Eventually the big 3 will have to do more of their flying to pick up the slack of their regional partners. This also makes me ask, “How did selling scope work out for the pilots at the majors?” From my understanding a lot of pilots said it would not affect them and wanted the pay raise to give it up. So for those saying sick time and taking trips away from the bid pack for OE will not affect them, I urge you to look at the last time pilots said that to get a pay raise.