higney85

Why are you stirring a pot you can't look into? So this whole idea of new hires is now happening, with us having a "record" class next month at endeavor (largest to date in pure endeavor terms), and for the last 3-ish years we had a bankruptcy, merger, close of 2 pilot bases, loss of -900's, an entire airline, then -200's to staff the then new -900's... Followed by LOA's completely reversing the situation for those on property with money and high potential movement.

New hires allows for upgrades. For many years many, if not all, regionals had "street CA's", then 2008 hit. Nothing moved, pretty much anywhere in the industry, until 2011 when things started slowly moving again. Now it's 2015 and movement of both airframes and overall seats (due to major and LCC hiring) is picking up again. What an upgrade was yesterday is not necessarily what a upgrade is tomorrow. It comes down to aircraft to fly, seats to occupy, and money to bring new folks for the right seat and retention.

I'm not saying 9E is the coolest thing since sliced bread, but look at the industry and a realistic outcome for a new hire. $80k as a bonus regardless of seat and the likelihood of a left seat in a few years isn't a bad spot, especially with a possible movmemnt to DL if someone wants it. The hiring of PSA and TSA for the left seat has been done, so where else can you get in the left seat sooner, with more money, and a shot at one of the big 3 on an expedited basis? Sure, the last part can be fought, but the precedent is now in place, that nobody else has.

BATOL

When discussing time to upgrade, it's important to remember that industry wide, FO's lost 5 years to the overnight stagnation of the age 65 rule change. This was (hopefully) a one time event. But basically an 8 year FO has only been getting closer to upgrade for 3 years (8-5). So a 3 year or less upgrade for a newhire today is literally what we're already seeing when adjusted for extraneous factors.

FlyingOkra

Do you buy into the 30 Upgrades per month calculations Higney?

You maintain logical thought throughout your posts and adhere to realistic data. These other folks, not so much.

Just don't give guys/gals any false hopes. Whether currently at 9E or a potential new hire, they deserve better than that as your fellow pilots.

FlyingOkra

Everybody experienced 5 years of career stagnation during this time frame.

BATOL

Exactly, so a 12 year regional captain has only been getting closer to a mainline gig for 7 years. Everybody is whining about Endeavor having 8 year FO's but EVERYBODY had 8 year FO's a year ago. We're just slower to make the turn because we had to dump a bunch of unwanted airframes first. I'm just trying to further illustrate the point that current longevity of upgrades is no indication of future longevity to upgrade.

Bartok

All I'm saying is that it can turn on a dime.

Here's my experience at XJ:

FO for almost 7 years, then when they started bringing the 900's, I finally upgraded.

The new guys that were hired at the time I upgraded were upgrading within 2 years of their hire date. Then they were hiring street captains.

I'm just saying that a newhire can't judge upgrade time by previous performance.

As soon as they feel they can staff this place, things will move.

Avroman

Any thoughts on 15-01? If I read it correctly, almost all the captain seats went to pre merger Pinnacle with very few involuntary displacements overall.

higney85

The key will be if projections and reality are in the same ballpark. Last time this was attempted the company said "we are going to hire 300-350" and we got a total of, what 30? So believing will be a matter of seeing, although I believe the forecast wasn't for 30/mo anyway in terms of upgrades. There are less than 600 active FO's last I checked, and at 15 upgrades a month that's 40 months. Still comes down to new hires however you cut it. There will need to be over 150 upgrades in the remainder of the year alone to hit the 144 to DL and age 65 retirements alone. Add in United, American, etc- that number rises quickly but I can't forecast that total. Still pointless without new hires. So I say new hires!

PapaMike

Maybe you should read a little deeper. I even quoted the guy who said 30 upgrades and simply answered his question based on his numbers.

And to answer yours there have been stints of 30 upgrades at 9e in the past. 9e grew like crazy in the mid 2000s for one example, but who cares about facts, amiright?

Plus, if you can't reasonably see around 30 upgrades a month here, you are very blinded by past hatred. We are losing 20+ a month as it is with only a handful going to delta as street hires. And no, they aren't running to PSA/TSA anymore.

Once they start taking the SSP guys at 15+ a month there will be a lot of movement. Couple that with hiring 25-30+. We had almost 20 in the first month before the first 30k made its rounds and then near 30 hires slotted for Feb and now added an extra 50 thousand to the pot. What do you think that's going to do? Keep people away?

The numbers the company put out for a 39 month upgrade for a new hire was incredibly conservative based on 10 new hires a month and winding down to 81 aircraft, just to show that in the worst case, it still isn't that bad.

FlyingOkra

You were once a Captain. I don't have access to a seniority list. How many guys stand between you and the left seat? And I understand the Bloch factor.