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Old 02-04-2015, 07:39 AM
  #121  
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Another question ,for those on reserve, how many hours do you fly a month? And where is the junior base they are sending new hires? thanks
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Old 02-04-2015, 09:43 AM
  #122  
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I can't speak to number of hours you work on reserve, but the current plan is for new hires to go into the 200. The 200s are based in DTW and MSP with DTW being the traditionally junior base.
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Old 02-04-2015, 02:14 PM
  #123  
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Thank you for the response! Would you also by chance know the reserve and current upgrade times? Recruiters are saying 3.5 years for upgrade
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Old 02-04-2015, 03:58 PM
  #124  
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Well there are a ton of guys who have been there 7+ yrs and no upgrade yet as well as people still downgrades so your guess is as good as theirs
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Old 02-04-2015, 04:14 PM
  #125  
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Originally Posted by Bestshooter View Post
Well there are a ton of guys who have been there 7+ yrs and no upgrade yet as well as people still downgrades so your guess is as good as theirs
Never utilize past statistical numerics as a future forecast in aviation. Not saying it will be better or worse, but the margin of difference has no historical relevance and a high probability of error. What is current today, is different tomorrow. Historically, that can be proven true as a forecasting statement. I've said before, as I'm saying again, when I was hiredit was a "street CA" situation. 5 years later I upgraded, 3 years after upgrading I'm an FO. With new hires, yes, I will re upgrade. Point is that it's the same situation industry wide. What is happening now, won't happen tomorrow, and the past will not be a template for the future. This industry is ever evolving, and if entering or moving within the industry, history only shows that looking 3-5 years down the line by contractual agreements, pilot contracts, and overall industry evolution needs to be the forefront of the decision making process. Don't look at where you "would be", look at where you currently are and where you want to be.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:19 PM
  #126  
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Originally Posted by higney85 View Post
Quote:





Originally Posted by Bestshooter


Well there are a ton of guys who have been there 7+ yrs and no upgrade yet as well as people still downgrades so your guess is as good as theirs




Never utilize past statistical numerics as a future forecast in aviation. Not saying it will be better or worse, but the margin of difference has no historical relevance and a high probability of error. What is current today, is different tomorrow. Historically, that can be proven true as a forecasting statement. I've said before, as I'm saying again, when I was hiredit was a "street CA" situation. 5 years later I upgraded, 3 years after upgrading I'm an FO. With new hires, yes, I will re upgrade. Point is that it's the same situation industry wide. What is happening now, won't happen tomorrow, and the past will not be a template for the future. This industry is ever evolving, and if entering or moving within the industry, history only shows that looking 3-5 years down the line by contractual agreements, pilot contracts, and overall industry evolution needs to be the forefront of the decision making process. Don't look at where you "would be", look at where you currently are and where you want to be.
This statement couldn't be anymore false. I generally agree with you Higney on 99% of what you say, but past performance is the only data you have and should use. Doing otherwise can be very damaging to ones career.

I would say, if you have a business plan available to analyze for future reference, then use it. But in financial statements, they caution into forward looking statements. Even with an ever evolving industry, to advise against looking at past performance is veering people in the wrong direction.

You wouldn't invest your money like that, why would you treat your career any other way?

As far as 9E goes, look at your present situation and look at their past performance plus their future statements with caution knowing things could change. If the risk/reward is favorable or unfavorable, make your decision.

Not trying to start an argument, just adding some clarity. Good luck.
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:24 PM
  #127  
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Is there someone on property that I can ask a few questions too? Much appreciated!
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:26 PM
  #128  
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Originally Posted by beau172 View Post
Is there someone on property that I can ask a few questions too? Much appreciated!
Leaving soon, but I have some insight. What are your questions?
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Old 02-04-2015, 05:47 PM
  #129  
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Questions sent! Thank you!
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Old 02-04-2015, 06:05 PM
  #130  
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Originally Posted by Past V1 View Post
This statement couldn't be anymore false. I generally agree with you Higney on 99% of what you say, but past performance is the only data you have and should use. Doing otherwise can be very damaging to ones career.

I would say, if you have a business plan available to analyze for future reference, then use it. But in financial statements, they caution into forward looking statements. Even with an ever evolving industry, to advise against looking at past performance is veering people in the wrong direction.

You wouldn't invest your money like that, why would you treat your career any other way?

As far as 9E goes, look at your present situation and look at their past performance plus their future statements with caution knowing things could change. If the risk/reward is favorable or unfavorable, make your decision.

Not trying to start an argument, just adding some clarity. Good luck.
I'm not sure where the disagreement lies. By my understanding we are saying the same thing in different words.

Edit: past and future seem to be a disagreement. Where you are and where you want to be is individual. I don't recommend taking a regional track record as forward looking statements. It's where you are now and reality of where the company is going.
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