That’s why I say fall back. Like a safety net. A lot of people these days are staying with their current regional for 5+ years. So if I did the same, because maybe I liked where I was or comfortable with the seniority and my time happens to come, it’s a good option, one that not many regionals have.

 

The theoretical max number of Envoy flow is determined by percentages of AA's hiring, but we flow the minimum allowed pace and probably always will. The flow is actually less valuable when AA is hiring like crazy, because you won't get out of here any faster but when you do, you'll spend the rest of your career stuck underneath everyone hired during the spree.

Optimum AA hiring for flowbots is a trickle but enough seats for min flows < percentage of class.

 

I'm saying that I was close to passing (I botched the second to last maneuver of the recheck), so repeating essentially the entire program elsewhere and going through all the sims again would in fact be a guaranteed pass.

It's not that I didn't know how to fly the thing. I received complements from both instructors and APDs on my hand flown approaches, etc. It was that I did not receive enough repetition on three manuevers to become sufficeintly comfortable with them. Not surprisingly, these maneuvers are also the cause of a majority of the checkride failures. So it's not just me.

 

This is true if you’re relying only on the flow. If you were at a wholly owned there’s no reason you couldn’t apply before it’s your time to flow. So there’s definitely multiple options, but the flow will be there just in case.

 

Just in case what?

Assuming you don't have unfixable resume issues, what scenario is there that flow will get you to a major faster than an OTS?

 

The point I was trying to make is that if hiring comes to a stand still, so does flow. It's being metered to less than the percentage because the percentage is higher than the metering rate. But if AA is not hiring, or is hiring very little, that flow slows down or stops as well. It's not a guarantee like, "well, in 9 years I'll be at American" kind of guarantee.

 

You guys seem stuck on this thought that I’m saying the flow exists as the only avenue to a major. When I say “just in case”, I’m talking about those instances where someone doesn’t bother applying at a major prior to the flow. Not because of some unfixable thing on a resume or something stupid. I say this because I know of very few individuals who have spent just a year or two before going off to a major. A lot of people spend a long time at a regional, usually 5+ years. So the flow being there provides another avenue to AA if you just never applied elsewhere.

 

OK, if you're AA or bust this makes sense. But that begs the question, why are you AA or bust? Otherwise:

Well yeah, if you just never applied anywhere. But just want to make sure you know where the flow is for a new hire. Union projection is 9 years based on metered rates (metered rates has always been maximum rate).

And why wouldn't you apply everywhere? Based on hiring forecasts for the next several years, you should be getting hired in less than... correction... MUCH less than 9 years. And what I've been trying to say is that if industry hiring slows, so does flow. Slow flow means worse than 9 years.

I just don't see the value in flow for a current new hire unless they have some kind of issues like a history of training failures or a DUI or something like that OR if they're an AA or bust kind of pilot.

No college degree? Well that's certainly fixable in less than 9 years even if starting from scratch and may not even be an issue for some carriers in the not to distant future so I personally won't put that one in the non-fixable category.

 

If you don’t mind me asking what did you fail on? And was it the first time or 2nd try ?

 

Not AA or bust. Not saying I wouldn’t apply anywhere else. Projections aren’t worth the paper they’re written on. A couple years ago the projections were 3 years, then 10, now I guess it is where it is. We don’t know where the industry is gonna be in 6 months let alone a decade. And not everyone decides to move on after the regionals as soon as they can. While you may, and most may plan to, it’s not always the case. So like I said, IF you find yourself at a wholly owned with a flow and IF you find yourself comfortable where you are and decide to stay for 7-10 years and then decide to go to a major, guess what, the flow is there. To me, that is valuable. May not be to you, but it is to me.

Not once have I mentioned anything about any sort of resume fixing, not even worth a discussion.