In the most likely scenario, they will have 75 somewhat senior CA's moving from 145 to 175, where they need them. And then they downgrade 60 junior CA's back to FO.
End result, less captains. The bonus is water under the bridge, can't do anything about that. I'm sure it seemed like a great idea at the time.

“Cost effective” Do you think it’s cost effective to pay 60 CA 145 7-10K a month to fly 0-15 hours?

The fact is over the long term it’s more cost effective.

Envoy is at the planning mercy of AA and this happens more often than not due to the language of our CBA.

75 new CAs - 60 former CAs booted to FO seems to be a net positive but the union/dera keeps saying we will have less CAs.

I guess I’ll just wait for it all to happen.

Not necessarily 75 upgrades. It will be at least 30% transitions from the 145, and if the company waives that rule, it could be just 75 senior 145s CAs moving over to 175 resulting in 0 new CAs.

People keep saying this but from the 3*s that I have seen I don’t think you are going to be right. Here’s my take... Seniorish DCE aren’t going to 3p to DCL unless you are a lifer. 9 DCE may transfer over (30% rule). From this I’d be shocked if we don’t have 20+ DCE have their PDIS in to transfer to the 175 to get the 5 hour bonus for the voluntary seat lock. The DFLs that are senior enough to bid and get the DCL are going to get displaced back down to FO OFL because they screwed up their bids.

I don’t think 175 guys are going to want to get pushed to the 145 so they may go to ORD. I don’t think very many senior DFE/DFL will want to be the plug at the bottom doing airport standby so they may stay as FOs.

LGA CAs..... well I don’t have a clue how this is going to shake out. Looks like most of the DECs in LGA are up a creek without a paddle on this bid.

Rule 1- People are going to screw their bids up.
rule -2 you never know what people are going to bid

They waived all seat locks which had the effect of eliminating all the pilots currently collecting the 5 hour displacement pay. There's nothing stopping someone from submitting the RF 1 VOL if displaced to a CA position on this next bid. Of course, the company could just waive all seat locks again and wipe those out too.

IF I thought I could displace to a CA seat either via proffer to displace or a traditional displacement, I'd still give it a shot. Despite what I think would happen, if I was displaced, I'd definitely give it a shot. Why not? It doesn't effect flow (like that matters anyway right now) and there's not another airplane to bid to now anyway. Might as well be seat locked... company will probably waive all seat locks each month for a while though.

MY thoughts are shifting to base seniority at this point. If we do have more senior 145 captains move over to the 175, which base is going to have the better QOL? I mean I know DFW is senior now, but they also have a lot more lines. ORD on the other hand could only handle so much in terms of added seniority before it may be a better option to transfer to DFW.

Not sure if that makes sense or not, but any who. lol

The thing to focus on is the vacancies. There are 120 FO vacancies, with 60 FO displacements and 60 CA displacements that means 60 CA are going to be downgraded. The 75 CA vacancies represent a shift from 145 CA positions to 175 CA. They can be filled by anyone—including someone who was displaced, but if a displaced CA can hold one of those slots, an FO slot opens that the junior most CA (or senior most proffer) will have to fill.

This bid is also a tell: between the 60 downgrades and 75 additional CA vacancies to absorb a shrinking 145 fleet, there will be a surplus of 60 + 75 FO’s (at a minimum). This may be the first of several displacement/vacancies, but for now the company will be set up with 135 surplus FO’s on October 1st.