Yeah if you're a read between the lines kind of guy the company just told us the extent of the furloughs.

well, sucks to be them now that they will be an FO for at least 5 years.

I see this as a paradigm shift, not a temporary inconvenience. There are a lot of structural changes occurring, the effects of which won’t be known for quite some time. I’m hoping this get back to mostly normal but I don’t see that happening in the next year.

If there are furloughs of any kind, I'd bet those that downgrade will be FOs for well more 12-15 months. Probably FOs longer than that regardless of furloughs but with furloughs, I don't think 5 years is much of an exaggeration for the most junior.

There will be very few upgrades until AA starts hiring again. That's at some point in 2022 I'd guess. 5 year upgrade for a 2020 hire sounds plausible. I'm guessing it will be 4 years.

If AA furloughs 1000, it will add another year before we flow again from when they get recalled.
So let's say they furlough 1000 until October 2021, then there likely won't be any flow until end of 2022.
If they furlough 2000, add another year, no flow until end of 2023.

This is obviously pure speculation but they will have to recall their furloughs before they take flows, and it takes a long time to recall and train thousands of pilots.

I don’t think they’ll furlough if they think they’ll be calling them back already in 2021. I’d guess if they furlough they think they are over staffed until at least Summer of 2022. Subtract a few months for retraining. The math of 1000 pilots recalled per year is probably about right, but it’s on the optimistic side.

Everyone seems to be treating hiring like its 100/month or nothing. When they get going again the training dept probably won’t be able to handle that many. It’ll take time to ramp up.

Those numbers were pure speculation. The only fact is that our upgrades are tied to AAs hiring. And if AA furloughs, our upgrade window extends way out to the future.