Thanks for that. And if I understood that correctly, we could have more than 60 captains downgrading, depending on how many FOs upgrade.

No. Only a few of the FOs getting displaced are senior enough to get a CA seat, and you can only be kicked from your seat by a displacement, not a preference. PDIS uses the seniority of the pilot being displaced, so a senior guy can't just PDIS to CA unless the displaced pilot can hold it (which most of them can't).
There will be 60 fewer captains after this run. Either the 75 vacancies go to CA-to-CA transfers, or they go to new FOs upgrading. But those pilots will be senior to the pilots getting displaced.

Displacements are run AFTER the vacancy bid. Even if these junior CA's are bidding for those 75 vacancies, when the displacement run is done, there will be 60 fewer captains. 3D/3P settings will not change this fact. The way people bid just adjusts the most junior CA DOH point.

Ok so I think you are misunderstanding the way PDIS works.
When you PDIS, you are using the seniority of the pilot actually getting displaced, you can only PDIS to a seat he could hold, not what you can hold.
Out of the CA's getting displaced, only a small portion can hold any CA status. So no-one will PDIS because you would PDIS to an FO, nothing else.
If one of these displaced CA's have 3P for the vacancies listed, they might get the award as a "paper captain", but that will be taken away when they run the displacements.

Let me try to explain it a bit.

CA seniority #2000 is the most junior pilot who is on a status that is being displaced, let's say DCE.
He has 3P for DCL, and 3D for every possible status there is.

During the vacancy run, let's say he is senior enough to get DCL awarded. At this point, he is not a DCE any more on the bid run but he has been awarded DCL.
Then they run the displacements. They will move from the bottom of the DCE list and look at the 3D of the most junior pilot, let's say he is #1900 (remember, #2000 is now DCL on paper).
If #1900 has DCL as his 3D, he will then get that award, pushing out the #2000 who was a DCL for 30 minutes without ever even knowing about it.
They will then look at the #2 choice of mr. #2000. Maybe it's another CA seat. Can he hold it? No he can't because he is junior to the most junior pilot at that status.
In the end it rolls down and the only status he can hold is an FO seat. So he is downgraded.
If #1 in base then wants to PDIS, he can only PDIS to whatever #2000 can hold, not what #1 could hold. And since that would be an FO seat, the #1 in base would be downgraded. Either way, someone will lose their CA spot.
This can happen through 50 runs, it takes forever to do, but the end result is the same, there will be one fewer CA.
Only 10 or so CA's getting displaced are senior enough to hold DCL or OCL. So absolute best case scenario would be 50 downgrades, and this assumes there are only 10 or so FO's, or CA's bidding 145 to 175 who are senior to these displaced guys. It's just not realistic given that the most senior displaced CA is barely under #1000.

I have to edit this. Since 60 CA’s are downgrading in this bid, that results in 60 fewer CAs and 60 additional FO’s. So 120 surplus FOs plus the 75 CAs being moved off the 145 equals 195 surplus FOs as a result of this bid. Plus any surplus FOs we already have. So we will be fat by a couple hundred FOs on October 1st.

This should be put on an email from the union so people understand it better. I finally “got it” after reading this

why would the #1 be downgraded? Are you assuming he PDISed for FO? Why would he do that? Since the junior guy can’t hold the CA position that the #1 guy PDISed for won’t they just leave him alone?

As I recall there were 45 thousand reasons to come as a DEC. Hope they enjoyed the hookers and blow.

He won't PDIS because it would be crazy for him to do so. It was just to show PDIS won't save downgrades.

dera-Who are likely to take these 20 DFL seats?