According to the projections that AA just put out, Envoy will flow 20/month for 2020.

20 per month, assuming AA hires 960 pilots or more per year.

There are approximately 140 in this next group. If they flow at rate of 20 per month we're looking at about 7 months for this group to flow at which point the flow should pick back up to around 25 a month starting August 2020. These are just rough numbers I came up with based on the latest seniority list so they could be wrong.

It will still be about 20 per month after the L10-11 group. We would need 3000 pilots on property (currently around 2380) and AA would have to also hire at least 100 per month for us to flow 25 per month.

This is the correct answer. With the PP gone, it’s now about 20/mo for the foreseeable future... at least for rough math figures anyway. 25/mo is hard to see.

20 per month

Hiring projections for 2020 are shifting fairly substantially from 2019 in terms of the ratio of street hires to flowthrough pilots.

In 2019, 927 pilots were hired. 54% were flowthrough pilots vs 46% of street hires (498 pilots vs. 429). Of the 498 flows, 322 were from Envoy, 110 PSA and 66 Piedmont.

For 2020, the company would like to hire nearly 1,400 pilots. 69% would be street hires, 17% Envoy and 14% for PSA/PDT combined. That breaks down to 966 street hires, 240 Envoy flows, and 192 PSA/PDT.

That does indeed correlate with 20/month from Envoy.

That sounds like great news, for military guys and guys at Skywest and Republic.

Your numbers are very, very rough.

To flow 25 a month, we need 3000 pilots on the list.
5 + 1 for each 125 less 480 on the list.

Pretty confident most of the OTS hires will still be military folk. Why would they start picking up Skywest/Republic guys? They get enough of their civilian fill from the WO's. Not trying to argue, genuinely asking the question.