[QUOTE=dera;
I know this is not a popular opinion here, but I'm betting the flow time will drop dramatically.

I'm gonna bet a beer on this - there will be 3 year flows within the next 5 years.[/QUOTE]

I'm with dera on this. I'll gladly let you buy me that beer in 23 when Envoy is flowing guys with 3 years on property.

 

So you are saying that someone hired today, would flow in 3 years? How is that possible when we have people hired a year ago scheduled to flow in 5 years? I have warmed up to Dera over time, but I have to disagree with them on this one.

Show me the math, I hope I am wrong. It just doesn't add up to me. We are hiring about 20-30 a month, flowing about 20-25 a month. We cant flow more than what the company can replace without something serious changing the dynamic.

 

That's not what I was saying. I meant there will be pilots who have only been at Envoy for under 4 years and are flowing before 2023. For someone hired today, heck no.
Looks like I was off by a bit. just over 4.5 years(4 years 7 months to be exact) seems to be the shortest it'll be. The 4.5 year guys start flowing later this year and on to 2021. I'll be glad to buy those beers. What I was right about was that the flow time really did drop, and it has dropped pretty nicely for everyone this year.

 

Just take a look at the retirement numbers. Over 900 this year and only increasing over the next 5. There aren't enough military pilots in the pipeline to fill the gap between the flows and them. Something will have to happen. Do you think AA will increase the flow or start hiring more RAH, SkyWest and ExpressJet guys? I'm banking on the flow increase. Think about it. Envoy already is part of AAG, flies AA routes, same computer system, NN numbered aircraft, same uniforms, paychecks, etc. Yep, I could see the flow increasing and the time dropping in the future. No doubt.

 

It makes sense to increase flow at WO carriers in order to preserve hope and hiring intake. The flow is a definite attractor as long as it is at a reasonable time frame. Presently, it has exceeded an attractive threshold.
It makes sense for AA to additionally raid other regionals for pilots. Twofold benefit. 1. Preserves manpower at WO carriers, ensures a fairly predictable staff level.
2. Raiding other airlines for pilots creates disruptions for competitors.
The routes and computer issues really mean nothing.
If the Max issue carries on too long and pilots become too scarce, you are going to see JBlue, Spirit and Frontier get acquired for planes AND pilots.

 

Ok fair enough and I agree with you when stated this way. Any idea what the seniority numbers would be for those people flowing at 4.5?

All valid points, except I just dont see them being able to hire more pilots than they are flowing to facilitate a flow increase. It really will come down to a training threshold and a hiring threshold. Once we hit that point, we just won't be able to move more people through quicker without hampering the WO operation. If you are arguing that AA would rather flow more while also removing flying from their WO's, I could see the numbers working that way.

This is what I see happening, poaching from other regionals. Why hamper their own WO's when they can hire pilots away from other competitors. There are thousands of highly qualified pilots that could easily meet AA's hiring standards sitting left seat at Endevor, Republic, Skywest, Wisconsin, Express Jet etc. I feel this is the much more likely scenario.

I just want to add, that as much as I call ThKooj out on the over the top statements, I do in fact hope they are right, sadly I just dont think they are.

 

RW was came to my new hire class and said flow will increase “soon”

take it for what it’s worth

 

Right after he fixes the scheduling and the reserve rules...

 

hope he is right but he is also the same one saying an LAX base for the last three years.

 

He has toned it down lately. Now it's "we get the planes but not the base".