20 per month x 12 months x 10 years = 2400 over 10 years.

 

Assuming this projected increase is accurate, I don't know if AA will be able to fill the OTS slots with military hires.

If this is the case, the question is will AA hire Republic / Skywest pilots or will they prefer to hire WO pilots outside the flow? I think only time will tell.

 

I feel one of the advantages of working for a WO is the opportunity to go to AA. If AA starts hiring non mil OTS guys who work for regionals with better pay/QOL then what would be the incentive for people to come work at a WO. I think AA picking up non WO civilian guys would only hurt recruiting at the WO's. I personally feel that the status quo will hold true, if you want to go to AA, it'll either be through mil or through a WO.

 

I'm already wondering why.

Why come here when AA is going to let THOUSANDS of pilots cut you in line for the rest of your career? Pilots that had higher pay, better QOL, more days off, more base options, faster time building, less hostile management practices. It seems like coming here is turning into a handicap, not a help.

 

As I see it, most of the military pilots that want to fly civilian as a career are already headed on that path. (How many do you know that just cannot get hired at the majors or regionals, or are just not trying? Not many, I would guess.)

Hard for me to see a big increase in military being hired; all the majors are increasing their hiring this year. Majors will all be competing for the same fixed pool of military pilots.

Likewise, if flow numbers stay the same, AA will not be getting increased numbers through the flows.

That leaves hiring more civilian from these WO and/or others.

Remember this is not a one shot deal. We are looking at the large hiring numbers, year after year, for the next decade.

 

Yes, the pool of "surplus" military is largely tapped out now (guys who took non-airline or non-flying jobs, rotor, etc). From here on out the only folks available to the airlines is really going to be the steady-state output at the usual gates (10, 20, 24, 30 years). They might be able to entice a few more at the 20-year gate.

Pretty much all FW UPT-grad mil pilots leaving AD with normal flight times (for their community) are petting snapped up immediately by one of the big six right now. No more blood in that stone.

And the mil CAN do STOPLESS if it gets bad enough, so even the steady state is not a guarantee.

 

The Navy rather dramatically underfunded their fixed wing flying slots from 2005 to 2012. They are still 1200 plus below their requirements. There flight training slots were fully funded in 2019 for the first time in over a decade. They hope to be caught up with requirements by 2023 but they are still losing pilots at historically high rates from those smaller classes as their active duty service commitments expire. Over the last decade they averaged a loss of 465 pilots a year peaking in 2018 (the last year for which figures were available) at 611 pilots.


https://federalnewsnetwork.com/navy/...llenge-begins/

The U.S.A.F. is similarly short on pilots for many of the same reasons. It is 2000 pilots short of its requirements and under totally optimum conditions can produce approximately 1400 pilots per year, something it has managed only once since 2007. The rest of the years have ranged between 1350 and 1100. They ASPIRE to produce 1480 pilots annually and are planning on cutting UPT by five weeks to do it. That may or may not work. Sometimes the shoe clerk’s bright ideas turn out to be pretty stupid (See Carter-era “dynamic duo” Air Training Command program).


https://federalnewsnetwork.com/dod-p...ilot-shortage/

The point is, if both the USN and the USAF both solve their funding and instructor programs they will STILL only be producing about 2000 fixed wing pilots a year. Except for the Reservist pilots, all of those will have a ten year active duty service commitment, meaning for the next decade all you can draw from are the already fairly depleted and under strength year groups. Of that number, some will hang in there until retirement at 20 years before starting their post retirement second career, some will go on longer to become Captains/Admirals/Colonels/Generals delaying and shortening their potential post-retirement civilian Careers, some will become medically disqualified or due along the way.

But the absolute MAXIMUM you are going to see going to the airlines is only going to be ~1900 a year and the average will be even less because that’s all the people still left in those year groups. Realistically, 1600 is probably about right - maybe even less since the USAF is contracting out their adversary air business.

But assuming these are divided up equally among the ‘big six,” that’s only about 300 military flyers per year per airline.

American Airlines alone is going to retire 900 pilots a year for the next six years, Delta another 800 a year, United 500... That doesn’t count expansion, the ULCCs, UPS or FEDEX, SWA...

The numbers of active duty military trained Pilots simply aren’t there, guys, it’s as simple as that. Nobody is going to be able to avoid civilian OTS hiring, especially since flow is designed to keep the regionals staffed, not to staff the major.

 

No-one can predict the hiring that's going to happen in the next 6-7 years at legacies/LCC's. All we know is that it won't be anything like in the past 6-7 years.

Saying that "flow is just to staff the regionals" or "they won't hire from their WOs because they don't want to kill that feed" is just ignorant. That same issue affects every single major. DL doesn't "want to" hire from EDV, UA doesn't "want to" hire from CommutAir, etc.

They will get their pilots from wherever they can get them. And if you say working for AA WO means you won't get hired at AA outside the flow, well, there's SW/UA/DL/UPS/FDX for you. And from CommutAir/XJT, go to DL/AA and so on. The non-WO regionals can't supply the pilots these airlines need.

The regional affiliation won't matter much in the next 5-6 years. The need for pilots will be so huge that "traditional" rules won't apply.

My crystal ball says Spirit/JB/F9 will have hiring bonuses in the next 5 years or so.

 

This the same crystal ball that provided this hot take?

Trust me, I'll hold you to that beer in 2023.