View Poll Results: What % of Envoy Pilots Get Furloughed?
0%
22
10.38%
1-10%
32
15.09%
11-20%
70
33.02%
21-30%
28
13.21%
31-40%
15
7.08%
> 40%
45
21.23%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll
Envoy Furlough Estimates
Envoy Furlough Estimates
05-28-2020, 05:04 AM
#2
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Position: CA
Posts: 191
Keep Tracking TSA Traveler Throughput Numbers
I am speculating here, but I doubt there will be any consolidation among the AA WO regionals unless it's forced in bankruptcy court. I think AA likes being able to drive labor costs down by pitting labor groups against each other (aka 'the whipsaw').
I just hope they offer extended leaves of absences well in advance of any cuts they make so people can start making plans sooner than later. There's no way we're keeping everyone on board unless travel rebounds significantly. I don't know what that threshold is, but I'd suspect it'd have to be greater than 80% of last year's travel numbers this fall to justify not cutting jobs.
Keep an eye on the TSA's traveler checkpoint numbers this summer, it will be telling as to what Envoy and AAG may be doing October 1st.
I just hope they offer extended leaves of absences well in advance of any cuts they make so people can start making plans sooner than later. There's no way we're keeping everyone on board unless travel rebounds significantly. I don't know what that threshold is, but I'd suspect it'd have to be greater than 80% of last year's travel numbers this fall to justify not cutting jobs.
Keep an eye on the TSA's traveler checkpoint numbers this summer, it will be telling as to what Envoy and AAG may be doing October 1st.
05-28-2020, 08:24 AM
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 150
Message from the Chairman:
TL;DR Things are either going to be okay or we're all royally screwed. YMMV. Take luck and maybe consider being a prepper, don't buy a boat, you may know more about your job status on 08/02/2020.
My fellow Pilots,
The events of the past two months have taken a toll on our industry that cannot yet be accurately measured. In my introductory comm in December, I said, "Our industry is fickle and susceptible to many outside factors. Terrorism, global economic downturns, disease, and bankruptcy can cause career stagnation in the blink of an eye." Never would I have predicted the events surrounding the spread of COVID-19 that have unfolded since that message.
Your ALPA leadership has worked with the Company over the past two months, and we will continue to do so. Additionally, we also work with other ALPA carriers so that we can strategize with and be informed of what our counterparts across the industry are facing. Compass and Trans States are no longer in business. Reductions have happened at Republic as well as ExpressJet. With the latest system bid at ExpressJet, because of the 175 leaving their fleet for SkyWest and downgrades, the junior Captain will have been hired in 1999. We still used pagers in 1999, along with dial-up modems and America Online. This is a devastating change to their airline, and the pain will be felt for a long time to come. Unless the economy recovers quickly, or Congress authorizes a second stimulus package, we will see more furloughs in the industry when the CARES Act restrictions end on 9/30/20.
The Company has been very forthright when it comes to the future. Pedro and the management team are working hard to maintain staffing levels. He, along with other members of senior management, are aggressively pursuing additional flying opportunities. Evidence of this happened in DFW, where we saw the addition of almost 1,500 block hours, of what has traditionally been MESA flying, added to the May open-time schedule. While this flying comes at the expense of another carrier, we are in self-preservation mode and encourage AAG to continue bringing as much flying to the Wholly-Owned carriers as opposed to the Fee For Departure carriers. The Envoy July schedule includes (as of now) significant increases in block hours on both fleets. As stated above, Envoy will be an integral part of keeping the feed going at American Airlines until mainline aircraft are needed once again. Doug Parker and Robert Isom have also publicly discussed that they believe that American is making the necessary adjustments to be in the best competitive position as the economy recovers and passengers return to the skies. We can see this reflected in the advanced load factor numbers
All this being said, we need to look at the best-case and worst-case scenario. In the best-case scenario, the economy reopens and experiences the "V-Shaped" recovery that some analysts have predicted. Passengers will return to flying, and airlines quickly ramp up schedules to return to previous demand. New deliveries of 175's begin in the 4th quarter, and the 19 aircraft that have been parked in KAVQ, as well as one in KBNA, filter into the Envoy network this summer. The first two of those 19 airplanes have made their way to KABI, where they are undergoing conformity checks and will soon be flying the line. Since 9/11, the regional carriers have filled in as the "go-to" when mainline demand slows. We anticipate this historical trend to continue.
With 22 140's no longer flying, the Company may need to run a displacement bid at some point to move pilots to the 175 to staff the Compass airplanes. We will also continue growing and need to staff the additional 175s coming from the factory. We have stressed to the Company that having a displacement bid sooner, rather than later, will be beneficial for everyone as we can minimize the impacts of any "training bubbles." The Association is standing by to discuss ways to make the total training footprint as short as possible from INDOC through consolidation. We understand the importance of having qualified pilots on property so that we can be adaptable in this time of dynamic scheduling.
On the opposite side of the spectrum stands the worst-case scenario, in which the economy does not recover as quickly as anticipated. If our passengers do not come back, AAG will be forced to make staffing decisions that affect us all. We have now seen two rounds of CSLOA's and VEOP's offered to help reduce the payroll obligations across the Company. We must remember that Envoy intends to be a profitable entity for AAG, and if they are overstaffed for what the market will bear, they will adjust their staffing numbers accordingly. If revenue does not meet or exceed costs, we may very well see staffing reductions as soon as October 1st, 2020.
The WARN Act (Worker Adjustment & Retraining Notification) of 1988 requires employers of over 100 people to give 60 days' notice of a potential staffing reduction. This would mean that by August 2nd, 2020, we would need to be notified of such a reduction planned to occur on October 1st, 2020. Per Section 16.A.1 of the contract, reductions start with the most junior pilot, irrespective of status. This means that the Company must start from the bottom of the system-wide seniority list and work their way up in reverse seniority order when making such reductions. There is no opportunity for the Company to implement these reductions out of system-wide reverse seniority order. Should there be reductions, there is a very high probability of displacements as well (between seat, base, and fleet type). Again, this is a worst-case scenario, and we believe that the Company is working diligently to avoid this scenario as it comes with significant training costs.
While we wait for the future to unfold, I want to give some advice that ALPA shares in the Planning For the Unknown document which pertains to before and after a furlough:
Again, this entire situation is fluid and continually shifting. The current trends are showing improvement when it comes to passenger numbers increasing. As you can see in the table below, there is a steady upward trend, but we are still only at 10% of the numbers seen last year. Our counterparts at United and DELTA are preparing for much lower staffing levels due to the structure of their route networks and the complexity of their fleets. American has been ahead of the curve and in the next year will be down to four fleet types, 737-800/MAX, Airbus A319/A320/A321, 777-200/300ER, & 787-8/-9. DELTA on the other hand will still operate nine fleet types, 717, 737/700/800/900, 757-200/300, 767-300/400, A220, A319/A320/A321, A330-200/300, & A350. United is also continuing to fly a diverse fleet of 737-700/800/900, 757-200/300, 767-300/400, 777-200/300, 787-9/10, and A319/A320 with the 757/767 possibly being retired.
Additionally, the early out retirements and leaves of absence AA has awarded their pilots puts them in a situation where they believe that they will not need to make further reductions so long as customers return. Should this plan work, there is a chance that AA will begin to accept Pilot applications in Q3 2021 and begin to hire soon after. Envoy has taken steps to save money on a corporate level by eliminating discretionary spending, as well as convincing AAG to begin heavy checks of PSA CRJ's by Envoy mechanics in Marquette rather than sending them to outside vendors. Our mechanics are highly skilled in the maintenance of these aircraft and will provide an enormous saving over Bombardier's maintenance. Additionally, Envoy in ABI continues to provide heavy maintenance to Piedmont for the 145's. These sorts of endeavors are excellent sources of revenue for Envoy, help keep jobs at Envoy, and shows that management is thinking creatively of ways to increase revenue.
TSA Travel Numbers
As you can see, there is progress being made in passenger demand returning, but there is a long way to go. This means in the short term that We hope this trend continues and affords Envoy, and American, the opportunity to resume hiring so they may achieve the coveted "five-year flow" sold to so many of us when we were recruited. As always, the Association will continue to work with the Company to attempt to improve the quality of life for our pilots. We need your input. Despite the economic downturn, we still have a cost-neutral amendment round this fall that is crucial to our pilots. Remember that ideas have to be cost-neutral in aggregate. If you have an idea that costs money, then it also needs to be balanced with an idea that saves money. Our pilots will be an essential part of the comeback story of AAG. Please ensure that you take steps to adhere to the CDC COVID-19 guidelines at work and at home. Healthy pilots and flight attendants are crucial when it comes to keeping our aircraft in the air.
Finally, the MEC, as well as Central Air Safety Committee, ask that you stay vigilant when it comes to the cleaning procedures of the aircraft. If you see that your aircraft is not being cleaned properly, please call Operations to have the situation rectified. We also ask that you fill out an ALPA DART report on any discrepancies that you see. Soon Envoy will be rolling out the full DART program, making it much easier for our pilots to ask questions and receive answers from Subject Matter Experts who will soon be receiving training in the program. Additionally, we will be able to catalog these questions and have them available for quick reference.
As always, please reach out to us or your Reps if there is anything that we can help you with. Please continue to fly safe, fly smart, and take care of your passengers and crew.
The events of the past two months have taken a toll on our industry that cannot yet be accurately measured. In my introductory comm in December, I said, "Our industry is fickle and susceptible to many outside factors. Terrorism, global economic downturns, disease, and bankruptcy can cause career stagnation in the blink of an eye." Never would I have predicted the events surrounding the spread of COVID-19 that have unfolded since that message.
Your ALPA leadership has worked with the Company over the past two months, and we will continue to do so. Additionally, we also work with other ALPA carriers so that we can strategize with and be informed of what our counterparts across the industry are facing. Compass and Trans States are no longer in business. Reductions have happened at Republic as well as ExpressJet. With the latest system bid at ExpressJet, because of the 175 leaving their fleet for SkyWest and downgrades, the junior Captain will have been hired in 1999. We still used pagers in 1999, along with dial-up modems and America Online. This is a devastating change to their airline, and the pain will be felt for a long time to come. Unless the economy recovers quickly, or Congress authorizes a second stimulus package, we will see more furloughs in the industry when the CARES Act restrictions end on 9/30/20.
The Company has been very forthright when it comes to the future. Pedro and the management team are working hard to maintain staffing levels. He, along with other members of senior management, are aggressively pursuing additional flying opportunities. Evidence of this happened in DFW, where we saw the addition of almost 1,500 block hours, of what has traditionally been MESA flying, added to the May open-time schedule. While this flying comes at the expense of another carrier, we are in self-preservation mode and encourage AAG to continue bringing as much flying to the Wholly-Owned carriers as opposed to the Fee For Departure carriers. The Envoy July schedule includes (as of now) significant increases in block hours on both fleets. As stated above, Envoy will be an integral part of keeping the feed going at American Airlines until mainline aircraft are needed once again. Doug Parker and Robert Isom have also publicly discussed that they believe that American is making the necessary adjustments to be in the best competitive position as the economy recovers and passengers return to the skies. We can see this reflected in the advanced load factor numbers
All this being said, we need to look at the best-case and worst-case scenario. In the best-case scenario, the economy reopens and experiences the "V-Shaped" recovery that some analysts have predicted. Passengers will return to flying, and airlines quickly ramp up schedules to return to previous demand. New deliveries of 175's begin in the 4th quarter, and the 19 aircraft that have been parked in KAVQ, as well as one in KBNA, filter into the Envoy network this summer. The first two of those 19 airplanes have made their way to KABI, where they are undergoing conformity checks and will soon be flying the line. Since 9/11, the regional carriers have filled in as the "go-to" when mainline demand slows. We anticipate this historical trend to continue.
With 22 140's no longer flying, the Company may need to run a displacement bid at some point to move pilots to the 175 to staff the Compass airplanes. We will also continue growing and need to staff the additional 175s coming from the factory. We have stressed to the Company that having a displacement bid sooner, rather than later, will be beneficial for everyone as we can minimize the impacts of any "training bubbles." The Association is standing by to discuss ways to make the total training footprint as short as possible from INDOC through consolidation. We understand the importance of having qualified pilots on property so that we can be adaptable in this time of dynamic scheduling.
On the opposite side of the spectrum stands the worst-case scenario, in which the economy does not recover as quickly as anticipated. If our passengers do not come back, AAG will be forced to make staffing decisions that affect us all. We have now seen two rounds of CSLOA's and VEOP's offered to help reduce the payroll obligations across the Company. We must remember that Envoy intends to be a profitable entity for AAG, and if they are overstaffed for what the market will bear, they will adjust their staffing numbers accordingly. If revenue does not meet or exceed costs, we may very well see staffing reductions as soon as October 1st, 2020.
The WARN Act (Worker Adjustment & Retraining Notification) of 1988 requires employers of over 100 people to give 60 days' notice of a potential staffing reduction. This would mean that by August 2nd, 2020, we would need to be notified of such a reduction planned to occur on October 1st, 2020. Per Section 16.A.1 of the contract, reductions start with the most junior pilot, irrespective of status. This means that the Company must start from the bottom of the system-wide seniority list and work their way up in reverse seniority order when making such reductions. There is no opportunity for the Company to implement these reductions out of system-wide reverse seniority order. Should there be reductions, there is a very high probability of displacements as well (between seat, base, and fleet type). Again, this is a worst-case scenario, and we believe that the Company is working diligently to avoid this scenario as it comes with significant training costs.
While we wait for the future to unfold, I want to give some advice that ALPA shares in the Planning For the Unknown document which pertains to before and after a furlough:
- Start saving. If possible, you should always have 3-6 months of income saved to combat any loss of income. If things start to get tough, consider increasing that to at least eight months of income. (We know that this is a challenging goal to accomplish)
- Do not count on overtime as a part of your budget. OT will not always be available in large quantities.
- Create a budget—eliminating unnecessary expenses—and stick to it!
- List all your current and short-term expenses. Review them with a critical eye.
- Review all possible income streams—e.g., savings, selling assets, tapping 401(k) (get tax advice first!), unemployment, loans, grants, etc.
- Create a rough plan that includes your financial considerations, include planned and foreseen future expenses such as interview clothing, shoes, travel, etc.
- Don't forget to include necessary medical, dental, vision, and prescription drug expenses
- Avoid unnecessary purchases (jet skis, boats, etc., as these items, can wait)
- Manage your existing debt; cash is king
- Examine your living situation
Again, this entire situation is fluid and continually shifting. The current trends are showing improvement when it comes to passenger numbers increasing. As you can see in the table below, there is a steady upward trend, but we are still only at 10% of the numbers seen last year. Our counterparts at United and DELTA are preparing for much lower staffing levels due to the structure of their route networks and the complexity of their fleets. American has been ahead of the curve and in the next year will be down to four fleet types, 737-800/MAX, Airbus A319/A320/A321, 777-200/300ER, & 787-8/-9. DELTA on the other hand will still operate nine fleet types, 717, 737/700/800/900, 757-200/300, 767-300/400, A220, A319/A320/A321, A330-200/300, & A350. United is also continuing to fly a diverse fleet of 737-700/800/900, 757-200/300, 767-300/400, 777-200/300, 787-9/10, and A319/A320 with the 757/767 possibly being retired.
Additionally, the early out retirements and leaves of absence AA has awarded their pilots puts them in a situation where they believe that they will not need to make further reductions so long as customers return. Should this plan work, there is a chance that AA will begin to accept Pilot applications in Q3 2021 and begin to hire soon after. Envoy has taken steps to save money on a corporate level by eliminating discretionary spending, as well as convincing AAG to begin heavy checks of PSA CRJ's by Envoy mechanics in Marquette rather than sending them to outside vendors. Our mechanics are highly skilled in the maintenance of these aircraft and will provide an enormous saving over Bombardier's maintenance. Additionally, Envoy in ABI continues to provide heavy maintenance to Piedmont for the 145's. These sorts of endeavors are excellent sources of revenue for Envoy, help keep jobs at Envoy, and shows that management is thinking creatively of ways to increase revenue.
TSA Travel Numbers
As you can see, there is progress being made in passenger demand returning, but there is a long way to go. This means in the short term that We hope this trend continues and affords Envoy, and American, the opportunity to resume hiring so they may achieve the coveted "five-year flow" sold to so many of us when we were recruited. As always, the Association will continue to work with the Company to attempt to improve the quality of life for our pilots. We need your input. Despite the economic downturn, we still have a cost-neutral amendment round this fall that is crucial to our pilots. Remember that ideas have to be cost-neutral in aggregate. If you have an idea that costs money, then it also needs to be balanced with an idea that saves money. Our pilots will be an essential part of the comeback story of AAG. Please ensure that you take steps to adhere to the CDC COVID-19 guidelines at work and at home. Healthy pilots and flight attendants are crucial when it comes to keeping our aircraft in the air.
Finally, the MEC, as well as Central Air Safety Committee, ask that you stay vigilant when it comes to the cleaning procedures of the aircraft. If you see that your aircraft is not being cleaned properly, please call Operations to have the situation rectified. We also ask that you fill out an ALPA DART report on any discrepancies that you see. Soon Envoy will be rolling out the full DART program, making it much easier for our pilots to ask questions and receive answers from Subject Matter Experts who will soon be receiving training in the program. Additionally, we will be able to catalog these questions and have them available for quick reference.
As always, please reach out to us or your Reps if there is anything that we can help you with. Please continue to fly safe, fly smart, and take care of your passengers and crew.
05-28-2020, 12:58 PM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,657
Originally Posted by UnprotectdPilot
I am speculating here, but I doubt there will be any consolidation among the AA WO regionals unless it's forced in bankruptcy court. I think AA likes being able to drive labor costs down by pitting labor groups against each other (aka 'the whipsaw').
I just hope they offer extended leaves of absences well in advance of any cuts they make so people can start making plans sooner than later. There's no way we're keeping everyone on board unless travel rebounds significantly. I don't know what that threshold is, but I'd suspect it'd have to be greater than 80% of last year's travel numbers this fall to justify not cutting jobs.
Keep an eye on the TSA's traveler checkpoint numbers this summer, it will be telling as to what Envoy and AAG may be doing October 1st.
I just hope they offer extended leaves of absences well in advance of any cuts they make so people can start making plans sooner than later. There's no way we're keeping everyone on board unless travel rebounds significantly. I don't know what that threshold is, but I'd suspect it'd have to be greater than 80% of last year's travel numbers this fall to justify not cutting jobs.
Keep an eye on the TSA's traveler checkpoint numbers this summer, it will be telling as to what Envoy and AAG may be doing October 1st.
Originally Posted by Gooch
This is what is known in the military as a “WARNO”. What follows is never usually as fun. Blue skies to all.
05-28-2020, 01:41 PM
#6
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Originally Posted by Cyio
I tend to agree, it would be very hard for them to let go of the whipsaw. With that said, I also feel like they should offer an initial run of long term LOA's so that those of us who can/willing to take it, will do just that, thus allowing junior pilots who may not be able to afford it to stay on. This won't save everyone but hey, every body counts.
I was thinking much of the same, While most of it was framed in a somewhat positive light, I didn't end reading it feeling optimistic about things. The fact that DP has come out and said they are not thinking about Chapter 11 right now, makes me even more nervous as I just cant see it not being an option.
I was thinking much of the same, While most of it was framed in a somewhat positive light, I didn't end reading it feeling optimistic about things. The fact that DP has come out and said they are not thinking about Chapter 11 right now, makes me even more nervous as I just cant see it not being an option.
05-28-2020, 01:49 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,510
Originally Posted by UnprotectdPilot
I am speculating here, but I doubt there will be any consolidation among the AA WO regionals unless it's forced in bankruptcy court. I think AA likes being able to drive labor costs down by pitting labor groups against each other (aka 'the whipsaw').
I just hope they offer extended leaves of absences well in advance of any cuts they make so people can start making plans sooner than later. There's no way we're keeping everyone on board unless travel rebounds significantly. I don't know what that threshold is, but I'd suspect it'd have to be greater than 80% of last year's travel numbers this fall to justify not cutting jobs.
Keep an eye on the TSA's traveler checkpoint numbers this summer, it will be telling as to what Envoy and AAG may be doing October 1st.
I just hope they offer extended leaves of absences well in advance of any cuts they make so people can start making plans sooner than later. There's no way we're keeping everyone on board unless travel rebounds significantly. I don't know what that threshold is, but I'd suspect it'd have to be greater than 80% of last year's travel numbers this fall to justify not cutting jobs.
Keep an eye on the TSA's traveler checkpoint numbers this summer, it will be telling as to what Envoy and AAG may be doing October 1st.
I could see lay-offs as the time to make this happen and if there is a BK, definitely. PSAmont gets the 145s and the East coast flying.
05-28-2020, 02:46 PM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2018
Posts: 163
I posted this in another thread re: bankruptcy.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed...y-is-nonsense/
In fact, I’ll go as far as saying that the ‘voy actually resumes hiring this fall. Forget the F word.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed...y-is-nonsense/
In fact, I’ll go as far as saying that the ‘voy actually resumes hiring this fall. Forget the F word.
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