Where is Charlie Bucket?
06-16-2020, 09:41 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 246
Originally Posted by jake cutter
Pre-bankruptcy hires. 2015/2016 EVY were set to move up this year but ya know, COVID.
I actually have a friend hired in 2015, he was suppose to flow in August, now he has no idea if or when he'll flow.
06-16-2020, 09:45 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 246
Originally Posted by THKooj
Why are you interested in ****ing me off? This doesn't. All it does is make me shake my head wondering why you would be against your own company. You won't find anybody more pro-Envoy than me. I maintain a presence here to keep the viewpoint positive and to provide inside information when I can. I decided years ago that I was going to be overwhelmingly positive and I've not strayed from that viewpoint. It's only solidified my view of the company as one that is strongly established with worldwide recognition and one that is positioned to be wildly successful. Try being positive for a change. It can change your whole outlook.
06-16-2020, 12:47 PM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2018
Position: Flying with my right hand again
Posts: 199
The flow time dropped to 7 years for the last guy to get hired pre-Corona.
This argument about flow times starts off with easy math, then gets clouded up by a bunch of estimates that nobody can accurately predict.
First the easy math. There are just over 2200 people in line to flow at Envoy. Flow has a cap of 20 pilots per month. The most junior guy on list, Mike Teavee, (and the next pilot hired) starts off looking at a flow date 9 years 2 months after AA starts hiring.
To improve that time, the flow requires attrition. To get to 5 years, the number of people flowing ahead of Mike needs to drop from 2200 to 1200. 1000 people ahead of him (nearly half) need to get out of the way in some fashion in the next 60 months.
The first year has the most movement, as there will be several who either don't pass training, get hired someplace else, or just plain quit Envoy because it sucks. The people getting hired someplace else are generally the more experienced ones, or they hold a real golden ticket. After the second year, attrition slows to a trickle.
Some will argue that the flow is only one way to AA and you can still get hired at AA through the normal application process. True, but being at Envoy does not seem to help those chances. In the last year, less than 1 pilot per month from Envoy has been a non-flow hire at AA.
Working against the flow, well, we are seeing that now. Flow is tied to AA monthly hiring and limited to 20 per month, with no backlog. Ideally for Mike, AA will only hire 60 pilots per month, every month, until he flows. However, if AA hires 120 in August, but 0 in September, Envoy will only flow 20 for the 2 months. If AA hires 120 again in October, Envoy only flows 20 pilots, September is a lost month for flow purposes.
Pre-corona, AA was looking at hiring 100+ per month. This is bad for Mike because that means every month, 40 extra guys are placed on the AA seniority list ahead of him from outside sources. After 5 years assuming everything else works out for Mike, he'll have an additional 2,400 pilots ahead of him on the seniority list compared to if AA only hired 60 per month.
Historically, attrition has been more dependable, but I doubt that attrition will continue in the future. Right now, 2/3s of the pilots on the list have been on property less than 3 years. Most are not competitive at other places because they are still either FOs or they are newly minted CA's without 1000 hours TPIC.
All of this could change if AA/Envoy decides to either increase flow rates or start hiring from Envoy through the application process. The primary reason for flow is to keep Envoy staffed while paying lower salaries. I don't see the flow cap getting raised until Envoy finds it difficult to recruit for new hire classes again.
The only other way I could see it happening is if someone starts a class action lawsuit and wins because Envoy advertised 5 year flow times that they never delivered on.
This argument about flow times starts off with easy math, then gets clouded up by a bunch of estimates that nobody can accurately predict.
First the easy math. There are just over 2200 people in line to flow at Envoy. Flow has a cap of 20 pilots per month. The most junior guy on list, Mike Teavee, (and the next pilot hired) starts off looking at a flow date 9 years 2 months after AA starts hiring.
To improve that time, the flow requires attrition. To get to 5 years, the number of people flowing ahead of Mike needs to drop from 2200 to 1200. 1000 people ahead of him (nearly half) need to get out of the way in some fashion in the next 60 months.
The first year has the most movement, as there will be several who either don't pass training, get hired someplace else, or just plain quit Envoy because it sucks. The people getting hired someplace else are generally the more experienced ones, or they hold a real golden ticket. After the second year, attrition slows to a trickle.
Some will argue that the flow is only one way to AA and you can still get hired at AA through the normal application process. True, but being at Envoy does not seem to help those chances. In the last year, less than 1 pilot per month from Envoy has been a non-flow hire at AA.
Working against the flow, well, we are seeing that now. Flow is tied to AA monthly hiring and limited to 20 per month, with no backlog. Ideally for Mike, AA will only hire 60 pilots per month, every month, until he flows. However, if AA hires 120 in August, but 0 in September, Envoy will only flow 20 for the 2 months. If AA hires 120 again in October, Envoy only flows 20 pilots, September is a lost month for flow purposes.
Pre-corona, AA was looking at hiring 100+ per month. This is bad for Mike because that means every month, 40 extra guys are placed on the AA seniority list ahead of him from outside sources. After 5 years assuming everything else works out for Mike, he'll have an additional 2,400 pilots ahead of him on the seniority list compared to if AA only hired 60 per month.
Historically, attrition has been more dependable, but I doubt that attrition will continue in the future. Right now, 2/3s of the pilots on the list have been on property less than 3 years. Most are not competitive at other places because they are still either FOs or they are newly minted CA's without 1000 hours TPIC.
All of this could change if AA/Envoy decides to either increase flow rates or start hiring from Envoy through the application process. The primary reason for flow is to keep Envoy staffed while paying lower salaries. I don't see the flow cap getting raised until Envoy finds it difficult to recruit for new hire classes again.
The only other way I could see it happening is if someone starts a class action lawsuit and wins because Envoy advertised 5 year flow times that they never delivered on.
06-16-2020, 01:07 PM
#25
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 72
1000 hours TPIC is absolutely not even close to getting you a second look. There are 2 regional airlines and an extra few thousand pilots with thousands of hours ready to interview with AA today. To be competitive even before covid is well above 3000 TPIC
06-17-2020, 05:52 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2017
Posts: 3,656
Originally Posted by THKooj
Why are you interested in ****ing me off? This doesn't. All it does is make me shake my head wondering why you would be against your own company. You won't find anybody more pro-Envoy than me. I maintain a presence here to keep the viewpoint positive and to provide inside information when I can. I decided years ago that I was going to be overwhelmingly positive and I've not strayed from that viewpoint. It's only solidified my view of the company as one that is strongly established with worldwide recognition and one that is positioned to be wildly successful. Try being positive for a change. It can change your whole outlook.
I am not knocking your enthusiasm at all, I may question its motive but none of us want the company to fail. I however, as do others it seems, do want accurate information out there and you tend to post over the top, clearly false or unverified information. That is the problem. If you want to cheerlead for Envoy/AA fine, but do so on facts. There are several truths that cant be argued.
1. AA is taking a huge gamble with its approach to the whole Covid situation. If it works, great more power to all of us, however if it fails it will leave them in a position that I dont feel they can easily recover from.
2. Envoy flows 20 a month when AA hires. You can throw sunshine and glitter all over the topic to try and make it a pretty picture, but that's what it is. If you do the math, its 9+ years for a recent new hire. You can talk about attrition and the like, but that is unverified and cant be counted on. Envoy advertised and told everyone a few years ago they would have a 5 year flow. They haven't nor will they be able to do that, so why believe much else.
3. Envoy management does nothing unless it benefits them. Anything they have given us was because they needed it, simple as that. I understand that companies need to make money, but you can still make money and treat your employees well, just because you want to treat them well.
4. The flow sucks. I would argue at this point it has done more harm then good as we give up so much for it. Until it becomes what it should have been back during BK when the pilot group foulishly voted against it, its nothing more than smoke and mirrors.
Good on you for being so positive, I will admit I need to work on that, but please stop the ra ra ra stuff and post hard numbers, facts and data that can be backed up in your support for the companies so that your point will get across instead of being buried.
Originally Posted by Tyrion
The flow time dropped to 7 years for the last guy to get hired pre-Corona.
This argument about flow times starts off with easy math, then gets clouded up by a bunch of estimates that nobody can accurately predict.
First the easy math. There are just over 2200 people in line to flow at Envoy. Flow has a cap of 20 pilots per month. The most junior guy on list, Mike Teavee, (and the next pilot hired) starts off looking at a flow date 9 years 2 months after AA starts hiring.
To improve that time, the flow requires attrition. To get to 5 years, the number of people flowing ahead of Mike needs to drop from 2200 to 1200. 1000 people ahead of him (nearly half) need to get out of the way in some fashion in the next 60 months.
The first year has the most movement, as there will be several who either don't pass training, get hired someplace else, or just plain quit Envoy because it sucks. The people getting hired someplace else are generally the more experienced ones, or they hold a real golden ticket. After the second year, attrition slows to a trickle.
Some will argue that the flow is only one way to AA and you can still get hired at AA through the normal application process. True, but being at Envoy does not seem to help those chances. In the last year, less than 1 pilot per month from Envoy has been a non-flow hire at AA.
Working against the flow, well, we are seeing that now. Flow is tied to AA monthly hiring and limited to 20 per month, with no backlog. Ideally for Mike, AA will only hire 60 pilots per month, every month, until he flows. However, if AA hires 120 in August, but 0 in September, Envoy will only flow 20 for the 2 months. If AA hires 120 again in October, Envoy only flows 20 pilots, September is a lost month for flow purposes.
Pre-corona, AA was looking at hiring 100+ per month. This is bad for Mike because that means every month, 40 extra guys are placed on the AA seniority list ahead of him from outside sources. After 5 years assuming everything else works out for Mike, he'll have an additional 2,400 pilots ahead of him on the seniority list compared to if AA only hired 60 per month.
Historically, attrition has been more dependable, but I doubt that attrition will continue in the future. Right now, 2/3s of the pilots on the list have been on property less than 3 years. Most are not competitive at other places because they are still either FOs or they are newly minted CA's without 1000 hours TPIC.
All of this could change if AA/Envoy decides to either increase flow rates or start hiring from Envoy through the application process. The primary reason for flow is to keep Envoy staffed while paying lower salaries. I don't see the flow cap getting raised until Envoy finds it difficult to recruit for new hire classes again.
The only other way I could see it happening is if someone starts a class action lawsuit and wins because Envoy advertised 5 year flow times that they never delivered on.
This argument about flow times starts off with easy math, then gets clouded up by a bunch of estimates that nobody can accurately predict.
First the easy math. There are just over 2200 people in line to flow at Envoy. Flow has a cap of 20 pilots per month. The most junior guy on list, Mike Teavee, (and the next pilot hired) starts off looking at a flow date 9 years 2 months after AA starts hiring.
To improve that time, the flow requires attrition. To get to 5 years, the number of people flowing ahead of Mike needs to drop from 2200 to 1200. 1000 people ahead of him (nearly half) need to get out of the way in some fashion in the next 60 months.
The first year has the most movement, as there will be several who either don't pass training, get hired someplace else, or just plain quit Envoy because it sucks. The people getting hired someplace else are generally the more experienced ones, or they hold a real golden ticket. After the second year, attrition slows to a trickle.
Some will argue that the flow is only one way to AA and you can still get hired at AA through the normal application process. True, but being at Envoy does not seem to help those chances. In the last year, less than 1 pilot per month from Envoy has been a non-flow hire at AA.
Working against the flow, well, we are seeing that now. Flow is tied to AA monthly hiring and limited to 20 per month, with no backlog. Ideally for Mike, AA will only hire 60 pilots per month, every month, until he flows. However, if AA hires 120 in August, but 0 in September, Envoy will only flow 20 for the 2 months. If AA hires 120 again in October, Envoy only flows 20 pilots, September is a lost month for flow purposes.
Pre-corona, AA was looking at hiring 100+ per month. This is bad for Mike because that means every month, 40 extra guys are placed on the AA seniority list ahead of him from outside sources. After 5 years assuming everything else works out for Mike, he'll have an additional 2,400 pilots ahead of him on the seniority list compared to if AA only hired 60 per month.
Historically, attrition has been more dependable, but I doubt that attrition will continue in the future. Right now, 2/3s of the pilots on the list have been on property less than 3 years. Most are not competitive at other places because they are still either FOs or they are newly minted CA's without 1000 hours TPIC.
All of this could change if AA/Envoy decides to either increase flow rates or start hiring from Envoy through the application process. The primary reason for flow is to keep Envoy staffed while paying lower salaries. I don't see the flow cap getting raised until Envoy finds it difficult to recruit for new hire classes again.
The only other way I could see it happening is if someone starts a class action lawsuit and wins because Envoy advertised 5 year flow times that they never delivered on.
Originally Posted by dk104444
1000 hours TPIC is absolutely not even close to getting you a second look. There are 2 regional airlines and an extra few thousand pilots with thousands of hours ready to interview with AA today. To be competitive even before covid is well above 3000 TPIC
06-17-2020, 06:02 AM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 264
Originally Posted by Cyio
So I am slowing coming to terms with you in my head lol. There are three types of people on here, the sky will never fall group which you clearly belong too, the overly pessimistic group, which I can sometimes fall into and the lurkers that just want some information.
I am not knocking your enthusiasm at all, I may question its motive but none of us want the company to fail. I however, as do others it seems, do want accurate information out there and you tend to post over the top, clearly false or unverified information. That is the problem. If you want to cheerlead for Envoy/AA fine, but do so on facts. There are several truths that cant be argued.
1. AA is taking a huge gamble with its approach to the whole Covid situation. If it works, great more power to all of us, however if it fails it will leave them in a position that I dont feel they can easily recover from.
2. Envoy flows 20 a month when AA hires. You can throw sunshine and glitter all over the topic to try and make it a pretty picture, but that's what it is. If you do the math, its 9+ years for a recent new hire. You can talk about attrition and the like, but that is unverified and cant be counted on. Envoy advertised and told everyone a few years ago they would have a 5 year flow. They haven't nor will they be able to do that, so why believe much else.
3. Envoy management does nothing unless it benefits them. Anything they have given us was because they needed it, simple as that. I understand that companies need to make money, but you can still make money and treat your employees well, just because you want to treat them well.
4. The flow sucks. I would argue at this point it has done more harm then good as we give up so much for it. Until it becomes what it should have been back during BK when the pilot group foulishly voted against it, its nothing more than smoke and mirrors.
Good on you for being so positive, I will admit I need to work on that, but please stop the ra ra ra stuff and post hard numbers, facts and data that can be backed up in your support for the companies so that your point will get across instead of being buried.
I would agree with most all of this.
This is accurate as well. 1000 TPIC won't even get you looked at by AA. God help you if you haven't finished a degree or have some training mark, DUI or other blemish.
I am not knocking your enthusiasm at all, I may question its motive but none of us want the company to fail. I however, as do others it seems, do want accurate information out there and you tend to post over the top, clearly false or unverified information. That is the problem. If you want to cheerlead for Envoy/AA fine, but do so on facts. There are several truths that cant be argued.
1. AA is taking a huge gamble with its approach to the whole Covid situation. If it works, great more power to all of us, however if it fails it will leave them in a position that I dont feel they can easily recover from.
2. Envoy flows 20 a month when AA hires. You can throw sunshine and glitter all over the topic to try and make it a pretty picture, but that's what it is. If you do the math, its 9+ years for a recent new hire. You can talk about attrition and the like, but that is unverified and cant be counted on. Envoy advertised and told everyone a few years ago they would have a 5 year flow. They haven't nor will they be able to do that, so why believe much else.
3. Envoy management does nothing unless it benefits them. Anything they have given us was because they needed it, simple as that. I understand that companies need to make money, but you can still make money and treat your employees well, just because you want to treat them well.
4. The flow sucks. I would argue at this point it has done more harm then good as we give up so much for it. Until it becomes what it should have been back during BK when the pilot group foulishly voted against it, its nothing more than smoke and mirrors.
Good on you for being so positive, I will admit I need to work on that, but please stop the ra ra ra stuff and post hard numbers, facts and data that can be backed up in your support for the companies so that your point will get across instead of being buried.
I would agree with most all of this.
This is accurate as well. 1000 TPIC won't even get you looked at by AA. God help you if you haven't finished a degree or have some training mark, DUI or other blemish.
06-17-2020, 06:14 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: Resigned
Posts: 1,547
It's difficult to get an exact read on what the off-the-street criteria actually are. You hear a lot of encouraging anecdotes, but then later it turns out that the applicant was female or otherwise demographically challenged.
06-17-2020, 06:27 AM
#29
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,269
Originally Posted by Freighthotdog
Seems like the degree, volunteer work, letters of recommendation and job fairs are the golden way in. They know you know how to fly an airplane, so time really isn’t that important compared to some other things mentioned. I know a guy who got a job offer with a few checkride failures and only 1000 pic due to the things mentioned above. But again that’s pre COVID.
Those other whole-person factors are important too.
And it's obviously going to be a pretty tough market for a while once hiring resumes.
06-17-2020, 06:30 AM
#30
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,269
Originally Posted by NoValueAviator
It's difficult to get an exact read on what the off-the-street criteria actually are. You hear a lot of encouraging anecdotes, but then later it turns out that the applicant was female or otherwise demographically challenged.
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