Nobody asks for bonuses here. The company just throws them at us because they think they know what we want better than we do.

This. It’s kinda funny. But hey sure, give me the monies.

Yeah that’s true. Same story over here. No one asked for any bonus here either so I should have re-worded that.

How far in advance of a sequence will the API website show the hotels we’re staying at?

Best guess for how much longer until Envoy meters flow? Current attrition trend is not sustainable.

Metering flow will 1000% increase attrition. Anyone who still hasn't had their apps out will get them out overnight. Envoy will lose half of all CAs in 3 months, those cute FO leaving posts will be replaced by high time CAs from 2016 to 2017 hires. New hire's number will also drop by half.

I personally want to see it happen. Envoy will begin shrinking back to a 1500 pilot group.

In contrast. Doubling flow to 40 and adding a 24 month CA flow lock might kick the can down a little longer.

Metering summer 2022 probably. There's still time to head it off but based on the weak vacancy they either aren't aware of it (hard to imagine) or don't care. Something will have to change. They're blowing through double digit numberrs of junior mans every single day right now just to try to limit the cancellations, which are coming hot and heavy anyway.

I predict they're going to let the operation fall apart somewhat to annoy passengers until congress reverses the 1500 hour rule. All three majors are gearing up for a lobbying effort in that direction.

They may try to lobby Congress, but ALPA seriously needs to contact every member of Congress that Kirby talked to and make them aware that those 100 regional jets that are parked were because United canceled a contract. There are still plenty of pilots that want to work, just not for the wages and conditions offered. The answer is not lowering requirements, but improving the contracts.

Mesa is fixing to sign a huge pay raise contract. After that Air Whiskey will be the only regional (that flys jets) that makes less than 45/hr. SkyWest & Republic will be the only two left making less than 50/hr. Those TT Mins will be lowered in 2022 mark my words.

Question for those not in the airline world yet. When the TT was raised from 250 to 1500 for ATP, was the upgrade time to CA raised as well or was it still 1k hours to make CA and did you even have many FOs upgrading right at 1250 TT hours.

And if the TT is lowered, how does one think that affects ULCC hiring. So many people seem to be going regional FO to ULCC FO. Would that hurt or help.

Here is the before and after the F/O 1500TT Rule changes that affected the Captain Mins.

ATP was always 1500, you just didn’t need an ATP to be an FO.
No airline was upgrading with that kind of time in recent history. Lots of places had 10+ year upgrades, so the number of hours you had really didn’t factor in. It was about seniority. As I recall, Eagle required 3000 hours to upgrade… until they were lacking candidates, then they didn’t.

Here is what the rule was for an F/O and then what it changed too..............ULCC Frontier is already taking students from certain college straight into the right seat with no Regional experience.

Hold: (1) At least a commercial pilot certificate with an appropriate category and class rating; (2) An instrument rating; and (3) At least a second-class medical certificate.

I don't like how CFI gang is drooling over this. Don't you realize how dramatically such a change would alter the market for pilots? It would set compensation, QoL, etc. back decades.

Trust me I do not think it would be a good thing and I’m just starting training. All I know is I’m old enough/young enough as well, to remember the day when 250hr guys weren’t even guaranteed a job at a regional, whereas today at 1500 hours you are guaranteed a job. But I can also see I guess regional guys being ****ed that some guys can go straight to a ULCC like Frontier if going to ATP or Riddle without stepping foot at a regional.

This already happens and no one has any problem with it.

The problem is very simple. When supply rises (more pilots) and demand stays the same (same number of pilots required to meet the needs of the traveling public), price (your wages) goes down.

Yes, but not very often right? I mean they only are hiring ATP CFIs and UND and Riddle grads right? Realistically what do you expect the MESA contract to be soon for first year pilots?

I see Atlas has cranked up their first year pay recently. I would imagine Spirit/Frontier do the same? Is it possible regional FO pay could start out soon at say 60 bucks and hour and raising wages all throughout the other pay grades of the regionals

Obviously you have not went thru many years at the airlines yet, nor a bankrutpcy yet. Every Major Airline has filed bankruptcy, and some more than once, and they will cut/kill your contract to shreds during the process. So either lower the mins, bring on more pilots, problem solved for awhile........or raise prices to where customers decide to drive vs fly all while you have to cancel flights due to no pilots (again making the customer choose to drive and not fly even more), the airlines loose revenue, airlines then decide to increasing wages to astronomical rates (which hey, pay raises are good), then they fill the seniorty list, then file bankruptcy like they always do and cut your wages to less than they are now.........The Airline Industry is a pendulum, it has happend before and will happen again.....Or just have Congress/FAA raise retirment age to 70 or 75 as long as you keep your 1st class medical. Enjoy being on reserve an extra 10 years.....without that widebody upgrade to CPT......The fact remains there are less and less students going to school to become a pilot due to the training cost....have the airlines bare some of these cost, that would benefit everyone....the company would secure a pilot before other airlines get ahold of him/her, and more students could afford to attend pilot school.

You lost 80% of us right here.

Hardly anyone on here wants to hear a 22 year old newbie talk about "you haven't gone through" whatever.

‘And what exactly you done? What airline bankruptcy have you been through? Do you even have 10 minutes of Part 121 time? Just stop….

Anyone know what the deal is on the ENY MEC website for the e-library? It’s been a blanked out for over a week.


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It’s been denied due to staffing.

Southwest has never declared bankruptcy.

He forgot to add “-Sent from my Embry-Riddle Dorm Room” at the end

Can someone give any insight on reserve times right now?


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I randomly sampled an FO seat and found the most senior reserve stuck there not by choice is a 12/19 hire.

Thank you!


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What base and seat? Right now all FO seats are pretty even in terms of assignment, but does the same true for holding a line? Obviously in the past it has made a HUGE difference.

I was wondering for DFW in the 145/175 wondering what could be to a line the fastest


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I think I looked at OFL.

Anyone have the attrition and hiring numbers from last month.


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from the MEC NewsBlast few days ago, 64 newhires 20+50 flow+OAL/retirement attrition

there were fewer and fewer taking up the profession; that’s true, but why? It’s because since deregulation the wages, retirements, and benefits associated with being an airline pilot continued to drop as managements kept whittling away at the job. Not so coincidentally at the same time the benefit of being an airline pilot started falling, so did the hours and experience to become one. Also linked was the number entering training to become one. This culminated around 2007 when an ink wet commercial pilot could go straight from a Cessna to a 76 passenger jet. That is also right near the point at which pay and benefits were around the lowest relative to costs of living putting many pilots on food stamps.
The initial pilot shortage was just a 2 year window as the supply had to build hours to 750/1000/1250 or 1500 to get hired now instead of 250. After that, each year there’d be new graduates entering he job market but with 750/1000/1250/1500 instead of 250.
The next shortage started in 2015 and was driven by a lack of pay attracting the plenty of ATP rated pilots into the entry level profession and suddenly we saw wages and work rules improving drastically over short periods. We are now at the point where we’re again waiting for the glut of people who have entered training to complete their training. The year graduates will be entering the profession at a great time in history. The current shortage now is entirely driven by retirement, expansion and mismanagement of training currency during the pandemic. There will be no shortage at all in another 7-8 years as expansion slows, training backlogs are cleared and massive blocks of retirees are replaced.
no extension to 70 or 75 is needed, and no reduction in experience levels are needed. As with the initial shortage due to poverty wages; the current shortage is mostly a training backlog again due to mismanagement.
filing bankruptcy and cutting pilot wages under these conditions would be corporate suicide. This isn’t the 80’s thru 2012. The planes don’t fly without pilots and they finally succeeded in choking off their own supply of pilots. Having to resort to hiring 250 hour kids should have been the red flag to them that it was to us. We’ve been telling them this would be the result and was coming.