What “good used aircraft” are there that can replace the 145? They have to be small RJ by scope and if ENY is going to fly them, they really have to be 170s. Not that many made and all indications are that of the nine AeroMexico had only one was in good enough condition to purchase.

Then there is the issue of a whole other company (PDT) that needs to have its aircraft replaced, but since those are at another company, they could be any plane that met scope of a small RJ.

You're still thinking too locally. PDT will likely become staffing fodder via consolidation for the other two as the shortage worsens. As the vendors drop (like TSA did) due to not meeting contractual completion factors that opens up that many more large RJ slots. There's other things they can do as well. Think about it a little.

I WAS thinking globally. That’s why I included PDT. Most people have written them off as an “also ran” that will fall by the wayside. But American has to do something with those seat capabilities.

The only vendor, singular, that could, and likely will go away, is Mesa, at the end of their contract. Skywest and Republic aren’t going anywhere.

Almost a year old for a five year contract. Daddy Dougie’s days at American are numbered and when he leaves, Mesa loses it champion at AAG.

Like I said, Skywest and Republic aren’t going anywhere. If someone gets cut it will be Mesa.

The reality is what ever you make of it. Some would say going from 60 odd planes to 40 is a negative. A positive for Mesa in this deal is AA asked them to keep flying more than 40 for the time being.

Who owns Mesa's 900's?

Thatsok, skw is adding 40 crj700's for aag and rah at least 20 e170's for aag.

I think you might be mixing information. Thought it was something like 20 CRJs that SKW already owned and 25 175s they were purchasing. RAH got the six new planes that were sold off under cover of darkness and swapped in place of the 170s but haven’t heard of any more than that for RAH.

But still both indications that they will continue to fly for AAG, long after Mesa and probably PDT as well.

There were about a half dozen the were leased from AAG. Not sure what the status of this panes are anymore.

20 175s at SkyWest
As of today, 21 more -700s from SkyWest
16 170s coming in from Republic
6 175s recently loaded from Republic (former MQ)
7 170s for Envoy.

The 6 175s at RPA and 7 170s at the Voy were different transactions.

Also keep in mind Republic has 38 more 170s on the United ticket that could someday make their way to AA ops.

What are you saying here? 16 170s from Republic where? Are you saying these are planes that will all be flown for AAG? But by who? You’re throwing numbers and carriers out but not really making sense of what is going where.

The six most recent 175s that Republic just bought to fly for AAG we’re all set to come to ENY. AAG saw a way to save some cash during the pandemic and let RAH buy them. The six 170s from CityFlyer may have been a separate transactions but they were very much tied to each other in terms of what AAG is was to send ENY. The seventh 170 was not part of the CityFlyer deal.

They recently signed an additional 20 crj700's
but who cares we got 6 e170's instead and parking untold e145's.

I should’ve been more clear, apologies. That is all new AA operation flying for those regionals. The 16 YX 170s are transferring to AA ops from their DL ops, YX will still fly them. 1 or 2 of them are already flying, mostly at LGA.

I thought you were saying MQ took used 170s from YX for the new 175s, but that’s not the case and you touched on the CityFlyer deal.

Skywest, Republic & Mesa will survive but will be much smaller.

On what timeline?

They’re already taking on new flying that they won’t be able to staff. Same thing TSA did. It works a little while, then comes street captains, and captain pay to fly as the FO. They’ll get junior FO’s to jump over for the street captains stuff. Then the cancelations get too great and flying starts getting pulled. Skywest, Republic and Mesa are large enough that even with shrinkage they’ll survive. Mesa wisely opened a new income stream with ACMI cargo flying. Sun Country has done the same.
TSA was smaller and it only took about a year from when I predicted they wouldn’t be able to staff the new flying they took on from AAG.

Somebody starting into 121 now should avoid all vendors and focus on WO’s.
Endeavor, Horizon, and AAG. The vendors have a built in profit margin that the WO’s can use to increase pay and working conditions. The WO’s can (and will) improve flow programs to make it such that if you aren’t military or friends and family you’ll need to go through their regional to flow into the mainline. Just a matter of time when competition to fill seats hits harder. LCC’s are already targeting the same university and flight schools that regionals have been. This will make filling regional seats even more difficult.

if you’re already at one of the vendors, get your time and get out before the stagnation and shrinking starts. You’re number one job should be applying and networking your butt out of the regionals. ACMI, LCC, or Legacy are are suitable places to go. If you’re at a WO with flow it gets more complicated, and much depends on your age, if you’re willing to move, and family situation. For many it will be better to wait and flow, for others the front door elsewhere is their ticket. There is no one size fits all answer. For me, flying our troops, doing other specialized govt stuff, never commuting, being home based, and doing my trip all at once giving me huge blocks of time off (up to a month without using any vacation) allows my family to vacation in some way a week or two every month if we want. Lately we’ve been RV camping a lot showing our son the country. We could never do that working 4-3, 3-4 schedules. So for us, ACMI is fantastic. Our recent contract made it a suitable career stop. For others they’ll want day trips which means living in base. If you’re already in the left seat at Envoy the choice gets easier. You aren’t going to go to Frontier or Allegiant if you’re two to three years from flowing. Even then there are exceptions. If you live in Tampa or St Pete, have a family with significant roots in the community, Allegiant may make sense. Each pilot has to weigh the variables for themselves.

lol

filler

"3 years from flow" and not going to frontier is very dumb on all fronts.

WHO are you referring to? This doesn’t sound like a carrier that is shrinking.

All of those vendors' UA sides (including Mesa) will outlive C5.

Republic's AA flying will outlive PDT. Based on the life of the CRJ, Republic might outlive PSA, too.

Skywest will grow in lieu of Horizon. It will grow in lieu of Alaska, for what it's worth.

depends.....

neither did TSA.....

1st -agree but will be smaller

2nd- agree. Very likely AA WO’s will end up consolidated

3rd- disagree.

Curious... why? Alaska has no scope, and the Horizon C-suite has proved that it can't manage a ham sandwich, never mind an airline.

Sounds like Horizon mgt must be taking lessons from envoy mgt.

no regionals will be growing.

Unless there is a consolidation, buyout, or replacement of another regional, what you say is true. I expect several regionals to wink out in the next couple of years. If you read back far enough in my posts, I predicted this several years ago.

I called it back in 2013-2014 that this was coming. It started in mid 2015 and was about to go full tilt when Covid gave them time to regroup and restructure; they wasted the opportunity and now it’s going to be interesting once the backlog of guys that hit 1500 this past 1.5 years get sucked up, because there aren’t enough coming in behind them for all the hiring at all four 121 levels. Regional, ACMI, LCC & Legacy. It’s a staffing crunch of their own creating.
called BigSky, Lakes, TSA & Compass all over a year in advance. I do remember your posts warning folks of the same things.

Pretty much everyone else called it too. Would you like a participation trophy?

Regionals shrink, 50 seaters go away, more pilots move to legacy carriers, regionals operate 76 seaters on the same routes at lower frequency. Around the same amount of people get moved. This solves staffing issues at majors without draining all their regionals of pilots.

everyone? You do realize to this day many ALPA national leaders still say there’s no shortage, right? That many managements were demanding concessions from every pilot group right up to December 2014 and insisting it wasn’t a problem in spite of the fact we told them they’d be giving raises and improving working conditions before the ink was dry on that CBA extension.
you may have been agreeing with what we were saying, but to say everybody was saying it is false. There’s still large numbers of management and even union leaders who say there’s no shortage.

When I made the call, I had bricks and stones hurled at me on this forum. Glad to hear more and more getting on board.

What I said we would go down to 1/4 of the number of regionals (already lost 5, with 1 trying to take off again), and 1/2 the number of regional pilots (20,000 down to 10,000).

50 seaters will reduce to very few. 76 seaters will fly those routes with less frequency.

76 seaters will be replaced by main line aircraft in some services, generally less frequency.

I stand by my prediction. Will occur by mid decade.

Hold on tight, we are about to kick in the afterburners.

Last I heard AA has not started paperwork on any of our flows that are supposed to be in the September class. AA recruiting has said that Envoy has not sent a list of the flow pilots yet. Anybody legitimately know what’s up? Envoy clearly knows who should be going. Are they going to force majeure the flow due to a pilot shortage? It would be a self-defeating move, but color me concerned…

I would be asking this directly to multiple union sources instead of on an anonymous forum. But YMMV.

Was hoping for a simple answer. I’m not directly effected by it, was just curious. Don’t care enough right now to chase the union down with it…

My question is has american hired anyone in September class that yall referring to. If not you ain't flowing

Supposedly the Sept classes are, in fact, for new hires. Nothing says that the flows have to go in the first class of the month (We had that option and voted against it).

I doubt the company will try to renege on the flow, but I can’t say I’d be SHOCKED if they do. Staffing is pretty stretched to start losing 20 more CA’s every month.

Speaking of stretched staffing…. More super critical. I hope someone cracks $20k this month (full disclosure…. Definitely not gonna be me). Probably need vacation and an abject disregard for social / family life, but given the right combo I think it’d be attainable for a 5+ year captain.

Can confirm, I'm slated for an October class, according to the hiring folks, all the furloughs are in class/done and the rest of the new classes are new hires!