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If a new hire chooses Envoy over say OO, and the flow to AA somehow stopped in say 3-5 years from now for whatever reason, how worse off would the Envoy pilot be comparatively in terms of moving on toward a major or LCC? Aside from the lower pay compared to OO, wouldn't they be in pretty much the same position? Also, what if the majors do take the majority of flying back in-house in say 3-5 years. How would that affect today's new hire (who likely may not have the TPIC yet) that chose OO? ENY?
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009254)
You answered your own question at the bottom. It doesn't matter what has occured in the past or present as those are VERY poor indicators of what might happen in the future. Last year or today (at least so far), you wern't hit by a truck crossing the street, but only a fool would think that insulates them from what might occur in the future. The good news for your nervous system is that not one single pilot is likely to disregard the consideration of coming to Envoy based on my highlighting your assumptions and inaccuracies. The bad news is that not one single pilot is likely to run with open arms TO Envoy as a result of your full-tilt boogie sales pitch. The pilots that truly will make that difference simply aren't out there in the numbers Envoy needs long-term. It's funny to think how inflated a perception of yourself you have. No one takes your biased rants seriously. Most know your a bitter man with a grudge. |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 2009279)
So I'll take this as, "No I can't think of a single instance in which the flow failed to work as advertised under Parker, so I'll just deflect your question with philosophical BS."
It's funny to think how inflated a perception of yourself you have. No one takes your biased rants seriously. Most know your a bitter man with a grudge. It has NOTHING to do with me, that is simply also a byproduct of your obviously delusion-based existence. Again, claiming that it's certain the flow will not change or stop based on what happened yesterday, last month or a year ago is silly. I strongly doubt anyone here takes your desperate veiled pleading and begging, nor your overt selling here seriously either. But by all means...............carry on ! If anything, it's entertaining. Demented and sad, but entertaining. :rolleyes: |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009296)
By your own admission kid, in July 2015 the flow FAILED under Parker. It doesn't matter what was done to correct that later.
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009296)
By your own admission kid, in July 2015 the flow FAILED under Parker. It doesn't matter what was done to correct that later. But that was NOT my point, only your misguided ramblings to try and convince yourself and others your world of fantasy based on assumptions, projections and hypotheticals is unalterable.
It has NOTHING to do with me, that is simply also a byproduct of your obviously delusion-based existence. Again, claiming that it's certain the flow will not change or stop based on what happened yesterday, last month or a year ago is silly. I strongly doubt anyone here takes your desperate veiled pleading and begging, nor your overt selling here seriously either. But by all means...............carry on ! If anything, it's entertaining. Demented and sad, but entertaining. :rolleyes: If I was a new hire, I would definitely go to PDT or Envoy, get the flow in the back pocket and keep applying to other mayors, including AA. I know several guys (civilian all of them and not previous interns at AA), that got hired off the street from envoy to AA. |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 2009302)
Actually it does matter. It shows that even envoys biggest hater eaglefly admits the flow is working as advertised and when a mistake was made, they corrected the mistake three fold the next chance they had. AAG has done everything they have promised so far.
My condolences in living with your apparent reality. I hope your fantasy and reality merge someday. If not, I think your best bet is to convince yourself of a new fantasy that works for you. ;) |
Come on Eaglefly, here is your chance, tell us how the flow has failed under Parker. All you have to say is, they could, they can, but what if... For someone that is so critical of promise and speculation, it seems like that is all you have. At least I can point to official policy and actual past practice.
Future pilots need your wisdom! |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 2009367)
Come on Eaglefly, here is your chance, tell us how the flow has failed under Parker. All you have to say is, they could, they can, but what if... For someone that is so critical of promise and speculation, it seems like that is all you have. At least I can point to official policy and actual past practice.
Future pilots need your wisdom! Supposedly AA plans 750 new-hires next year and from what I hear everyone be it recall or another carriers flow is supposedly a new-hire, so you'd think that means 375 Envoy flows. But already, the projection has been lowered to "200-300", so it looks as though they already are lowering your expectations. Just weeks ago, all I heard was the trumpets blowing about 30/month starting in January or 360 next year, but that looks doubtful. If say 250 go next year, at that rate it will take till close to the end of 2017 just to get through the 824. Will 30 go in January ? I have my doubts. Although I'll take no pleasure in seeing hopeful Envoy pilots delayed in going to AA by a slower flow then hoped for, if it twists you into a pretzel as I'm sure it will, it will at least provide some mirth to an otherwise unfortunate situation. If something truly unforseen occurs stopping the flow like too many deferees, I expect you to collapse into a complete and total crack-up. I think fantasy just may be your best friend in the future........use it well, my son. :D |
is there a way to automatically ignore posts from a certain user?
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009392)
I think you're becoming a bit hysterical. Try to temper your emotion a bit and you'll feel better. The fact is it failed last Summer. It was a BIG deal on EL too. What remedy was subsequently made doesn't change that fact.
Supposedly AA plans 750 new-hires next year and from what I hear everyone be it recall or another carriers flow is supposedly a new-hire, so you'd think that means 375 Envoy flows. But already, the projection has been lowered to "200-300", so it looks as though they already are lowering your expectations. Just weeks ago, all I heard was the trumpets blowing about 30/month starting in January or 360 next year, but that looks doubtful. If say 250 go next year, at that rate it will take till close to the end of 2017 just to get through the 824. Will 30 go in January ? I have my doubts. Although I'll take no pleasure in seeing hopeful Envoy pilots delayed in going to AA by a slower flow then hoped for, if it twists you into a pretzel as I'm sure it will, it will at least provide some mirth to an otherwise unfortunate situation. If something truly unforseen occurs stopping the flow like too many deferees, I expect you to collapse into a complete and total crack-up. I think fantasy just may be your best friend in the future........use it well, my son. :D Fact 2...824 can be metered to 30 a month or 50% whichever is lower, at the end of the year it have to be equal to 50% regardless. The protections are depending on who you talk to. AA can say "I'm protecting 200, 300, 800, 10000 hires next year" and actually hire 1, 10, 100, 20. Nothing in this industry is for sure. So how about if we stop talking hypothetically? If AA hires 700 next year then, by the end of 2016 they had to flow 350. That's as simple as it is, it can be 30 a mont, it can be 20, it can be 1...its up to how many AA gets into class. |
Originally Posted by fisherman
(Post 2009402)
is there a way to automatically ignore posts from a certain user?
|
Originally Posted by PilotJ3
(Post 2009409)
Some deferees counts as NewHires, fact #1, so they have to apply flows for each one of them.
Fact 2...824 can be metered to 30 a month or 50% whichever is lower, at the end of the year it have to be equal to 50% regardless. The protections are depending on who you talk to. AA can say "I'm protecting 200, 300, 800, 10000 hires next year" and actually hire 1, 10, 100, 20. Nothing in this industry is for sure. So how about if we stop talking hypothetically? If AA hires 700 next year then, by the end of 2016 they had to flow 350. That's as simple as it is, it can be 30 a mont, it can be 20, it can be 1...its up to how many AA gets into class. |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009419)
I'd love to stop talking hypotheticals, but the projections for flows next year along with Flaming Sky's guarantee's are just that. Nothing in this industry is for sure and that's for sure.
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009296)
By your own admission kid, in July 2015 the flow FAILED under Parker. It doesn't matter what was done to correct that later. But that was NOT my point, only your misguided ramblings to try and convince yourself and others your world of fantasy based on assumptions, projections and hypotheticals is unalterable.
It has NOTHING to do with me, that is simply also a byproduct of your obviously delusion-based existence. Again, claiming that it's certain the flow will not change or stop based on what happened yesterday, last month or a year ago is silly. I strongly doubt anyone here takes your desperate veiled pleading and begging, nor your overt selling here seriously either. But by all means...............carry on ! If anything, it's entertaining. Demented and sad, but entertaining. :rolleyes: I'm sorry you spent a lot of your time at Eagle during the lost decade, but those days are over. Everybody is hiring and every single pilot currently on the Envoy list that wants to flow to AA will have the opportunity to do just that in the next few years. We are going to be having more upgrades than planned as well as some hulls stay around longer that initially thought as well. In addition, I think there is a very good chance that Envoy will be exercising options on the additional 90 E-175's (aka "The New Seven Five") as well. Kind of like having your cake and being able to eat it as well. Don't believe 2.5/6? It's a fact. I've already given you all of the numbers and how it's going to happen. Keep burying your head in the sand but if you want a job with AA, Envoy is your best bet. |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009101)
No such guarantee exists.
All that exists in this respect are present projections that imply it is possible for such a pilot to theoretically achieve that result in that time frame, but that is NOT the same as a guarantee. If such a thing existed, it would be in iron-clad contractual language. Considering one must accept that there is motive for some to insinuate such a claim, it makes it even more obvious that NO pilot should assume such a thing. |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 2009127)
It is as much as a guarantee that United or Delta might call that person for an interview and they might be among the 85% interviewees who are offered a job. There are over 600 pilots that have flowed over to AA in the last 4 years that say its a pretty good chance.
So far, your argument carries about as much weight as, "well, assuming a meteorite doesn't hit the earth and destroy all humanity before that time comes." But since you like to sow such distrust for the flow, name me one time that FT hasn't worked as advertised since Parker took over? (They should have flowed over 6 guys in July 2015 but the next month they flowed 18 at 100% of the class) Ding ding ding! This guy gets it. |
Isn't this clown at AA and didn't he FLOW???
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Originally Posted by PDTpilotXX
(Post 2009687)
Isn't this clown at AA and didn't he FLOW???
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Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 2009646)
Wrong again. The flow never failed under Parker. Since AAG took over from the old AMR leadership, they have done exactly as they said they were going to do. We've had over 500 pilots flow from Envoy to AA since 2013. How is that a failure?
30/month is 360 and 50% of 750 is 375. But, last I read from Envoy management it was "200-300" which is short of the Mason dance from just weeks ago. Let's see what occurs in January. If it's only 20, that's not a good sign of 360-375 for 2016.
Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 2009646)
I'm sorry you spent a lot of your time at Eagle during the lost decade, but those days are over. Everybody is hiring and every single pilot currently on the Envoy list that wants to flow to AA will have the opportunity to do just that in the next few years. We are going to be having more upgrades than planned as well as some hulls stay around longer that initially thought as well. In addition, I think there is a very good chance that Envoy will be exercising options on the additional 90 E-175's (aka "The New Seven Five") as well. Kind of like having your cake and being able to eat it as well.
You planning to flow ? Well, then I'd rethink trumpeting those 90 options for "The new seven five's". That will only SLOW your advancement at AA once you get there as guess what they will be replacing...................YOU. Since you'll be hideously junior, it will likely then be I that tells YOU how sorry I am you are upset.
Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 2009646)
Don't believe 2.5/6? It's a fact. I've already given you all of the numbers and how it's going to happen. Keep burying your head in the sand but if you want a job with AA, Envoy is your best bet.
Good Luck ! |
Originally Posted by FlameNSky
(Post 2009697)
Yes, he stayed at Eagle for 20 years waiting for the flow that he is so disparaging of. Hey Eaglefly why don't you tell all the kids why you never took your own advice and waited around for the flow?
I'm not disparaging the flow as it is a GOOD thing, BUT, one should mot plan on present projections as any sort of guarantee, that's all I've said. I realize this is driving some like yourself into complete hysterics though. :rolleyes: Why don't you tell this old man why aren't YOU moving on to elsewhere ? Gee, if you can't that must mean you're an un-hirable toothless loser like me, eh ? ;) Once you flow, I'll be able to attack you as one who didn't "earn his job" at AA and couldn't get hired anywhere else and won't that be a peach ? |
Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009726)
Well, back at EL during the Summer, everyone was in a flap on how in June Envoy sent no one and arbitrally they were required to send a minimum each month percentage-wise. What they did to make up for that or how many overall they hiredis irrelevant. This is all semantics though as all I'm stating which has caused another bout of Envoysteria is that what happened yesterday or today doesn't guarantee tomorrow. Same for ANY AAG regional flow "projection". Supposedly the E-175 arrival is theoretically supposed to trigger 30/month metered to a minimum of 50%, yes ?
30/month is 360 and 50% of 750 is 375. But, last I read from Envoy management it was "200-300" which is short of the Mason dance from just weeks ago. Let's see what occurs in January. If it's only 20, that's not a good sign of 360-375 for 2016. Upset ? Why would I be upset ? Although I wanted to get to AA sooner (who wouldn't), I did OK at Eagle during the "lost decade" driving to work for $80-110K/year and am fine with my existence now. I hope those junior to me do better then I did, but whether they do or not, it wont change my situation. I look forward, not backward and my points about Envoy and the flow is that NO ONE can say with any guarantees what occurs forward of today. You planning to flow ? Well, then I'd rethink trumpeting those 90 options for "The new seven five's". That will only SLOW your advancement at AA once you get there as guess what they will be replacing...................YOU. Since you'll be hideously junior, it will likely then be I that tells YOU how sorry I am you are upset. You've convinced yourself of certainties in the future and considering your present existence, I can understand that. From what Envoy pilots say at EL, it's sounds like a pretty chaotic existence there now and is likely about to get worse when your MEC once again cow-tow's to management and gives them Satellite bases(s) while RSV goes unchanged or unimproved. As another used to say here........... Good Luck ! The satellite bases are a get for 80-100 pilots. It is not the least bit concessionary. IMO we need to use what little leverage we have. If you agree with me, e mail your reps and or MEC |
I don't know exactly what the point of your continued posting is.
Okay we get it. The flow worked for you, but Nothing in life is guaranteed. Fact still remains, looking at the regional landscape, a new hires best option is probably PDT or ENY. No one is suggesting they don't continue to apply to the big 3 off the street. If you get hired by United or delta off the street first by all means leave. Like you said making 80-110k while waiting for AA/United/delta (even if flow projections don't live up to the hype) isn't that bad. Your ruining this entire forum with your incessant posting. Convincing people not to come to ENY serves no purpose, but it's obviously part of some misguided self-serving mission your on. |
Originally Posted by Reservist
(Post 2009745)
I don't know exactly what the point of your continued posting is.
Okay we get it. The flow worked for you, but Nothing in life is guaranteed. Fact still remains, looking at the regional landscape, a new hires best option is probably PDT or ENY. No one is suggesting they don't continue to apply to the big 3 off the street. If you get hired by United or delta off the street first by all means leave. Like you said making 80-110k while waiting for AA/United/delta (even if flow projections don't live up to the hype) isn't that bad. Your ruining this entire forum with your incessant posting. Convincing people not to come to ENY serves no purpose, but it's obviously part of some misguided self-serving mission your on. I rather have the flow in my back pocket while applying to UA, DL and AA. But hey, if someone wants to go to Xjet, Rah, TSA, AWAC, etc and don't have any plan Z (the flow) by all means good luck to them, it's their decision. Like I said, envoy pilots can be hired off the street into AA. |
Originally Posted by PilotJ3
(Post 2009751)
Like I said, envoy pilots can be hired off the street into AA.
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Originally Posted by Harpyr
(Post 2009820)
How many have been hired that way over the last few years? And what were their qualifications and networking options? Because they weren't just cases where AA just decided to hire an Envoy pilot OTS for funsies.
Considering the last NH class without deferrals was probably by January/February 2015. After that they stopped interviewing. |
Originally Posted by Harpyr
(Post 2009820)
How many have been hired that way over the last few years? And what were their qualifications and networking options? Because they weren't just cases where AA just decided to hire an Envoy pilot OTS for funsies.
Delta is the same, majority is Mil, then Compass/Endeavor pilots, then leftover spots for astronauts, check airmen, pHd's etc.. Then Masters degrees, then 4000 TPIC pilots who volunteer at homeless shelters and build houses for habitat for humanity in Africa on days off, then 8000 hr FO's, then other pilots if you are lucky. Flow isn't bad to have as a backup. |
Originally Posted by PilotJ3
(Post 2009837)
I know 4 with no mayor connections, just networking. 2 of them CA and 2 of them FOs with no P121 TPIC. I know 1 more pilot that was an intern.
Considering the last NH class without deferrals was probably by January/February 2015. After that they stopped interviewing. Either way, I'd advise the up-and-coming generation of pilots to get in ENY's pipeline program. If the flow works as advertised, that's the place to be. |
Originally Posted by Harpyr
(Post 2009846)
Those don't sound like great numbers to me. All I'm really getting at is that it may not be the full picture to say, "Yeah, AA hires ENY pilots OTS", when in fact the flow is a reason they'd rather avoid doing just that.
Either way, I'd advise the up-and-coming generation of pilots to get in ENY's pipeline program. If the flow works as advertised, that's the place to be. The question is...Envoy with 50% of year new hires, PDY with 3 a month and PSA with 5 a month. How much space is for any other hires that are not military/interns/family and friends? AA have over 15,000 apps on file... And before others chime in, the flow goes down after the 825 to 50% metered to 25 a month whichever is lower. That trigger it should start about mid 2017. It covers all the pilots until hired at 10/11/11. Basically ensuring that Envoy will keep sending 50% of new hires into AA for at least until 2020/2023. Again, any new guy should be looking carefully ENY/PDT, it's a good way to have all the Legacies covered. |
It's good game to bait new hires with flow but one still has to managed to pay for cost of living on about $33G as a first year FO at Envoy. Pretty brutal, hopes of seamless flow or not.
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Originally Posted by eaglefly
(Post 2009726)
Well, back at EL during the Summer, everyone was in a flap on how in June Envoy sent no one and arbitrally they were required to send a minimum each month percentage-wise. What they did to make up for that or how many overall they hired is irrelevant. This is all semantics though as all I'm stating which has caused another bout of Envoysteria is that what happened yesterday or today doesn't guarantee tomorrow. Same for ANY AAG regional flow "projection". Supposedly the E-175 arrival is theoretically supposed to trigger 30/month metered to a minimum of 50%, yes ?
30/month is 360 and 50% of 750 is 375. But, last I read from Envoy management it was "200-300" which is short of the Mason dance from just weeks ago. Let's see what occurs in January. If it's only 20, that's not a good sign of 360-375 for 2016. Upset ? Why would I be upset ? Although I wanted to get to AA sooner (who wouldn't), I did OK at Eagle during the "lost decade" driving to work for $80-110K/year and am fine with my existence now. I hope those junior to me do better then I did, but whether they do or not, it wont change my situation. I look forward, not backward and my points about Envoy and the flow is that NO ONE can say with any guarantees what occurs forward of today. You planning to flow ? Well, then I'd rethink trumpeting those 90 options for "The new seven five's". That will only SLOW your advancement at AA once you get there as guess what they will be replacing...................YOU. Since you'll be hideously junior, it will likely then be I that tells YOU how sorry I am you are upset. You've convinced yourself of certainties in the future and considering your present existence, I can understand that. From what Envoy pilots say at EL, it's sounds like a pretty chaotic existence there now and is likely about to get worse when your MEC once again cow-tow's to management and gives them Satellite bases(s) while RSV goes unchanged or unimproved. As another used to say here........... Good Luck ! You can lead a horse to water, you just can't force him to drink. I've already given you all the FACTS. 2.5 year upgrade and 6 year flow to AA. I'm sorry you missed the boat but it's a different time now. Yes, I'm flowing by the way. And the "New Seven Fives" will just make it all the better. Potentially 450 additional CA slots as the flow continues. There's few things in life that are sure. Death and taxes are two. Envoy flow to AA is as close to a lock as you can get. You can take that to the bank. |
Originally Posted by cf105
(Post 2009920)
It's good game to bait new hires with flow but one still has to managed to pay for cost of living on about $33G as a first year FO at Envoy. Pretty brutal, hopes of seamless flow or not.
Oh, first year pay at Regional A or B is $40/hour?? And so what? You will be making that for the next decade as you spin your wheels in place. In case you haven't figured it out yet: Majors don't hire Regional pilots just because they have 1,000 hours in the left seat of an RJ. They have 11,000+ applications on file, per airline, of people far more qualified than your average Regional pilot. With a flow through agreement like Envoy's, you will start at average FO pay, and within 5 or 6 years be where the REAL MONEY is: A MAJOR airline. And you got there by having just ONE interview: the one you did to get hired at Envoy. Meanwhile everyone else who went to non-wholly owned Regionals are still there 6 years later...wasting their money and precious days off attending job fairs. All of a sudden that $40/hour 1st year FO pay doesn't seem worth it in the long run. Long term vs short term monetary gain. It isn't a complex principle that requires a degree in mathematics to figure out. |
Originally Posted by Reservist
(Post 2009745)
I don't know exactly what the point of your continued posting is.
Okay we get it. The flow worked for you, but Nothing in life is guaranteed. Fact still remains, looking at the regional landscape, a new hires best option is probably PDT or ENY. No one is suggesting they don't continue to apply to the big 3 off the street. If you get hired by United or delta off the street first by all means leave. Like you said making 80-110k while waiting for AA/United/delta (even if flow projections don't live up to the hype) isn't that bad. Your ruining this entire forum with your incessant posting. Convincing people not to come to ENY serves no purpose, but it's obviously part of some misguided self-serving mission your on. I'm not urging people not to come to Envoy, that's simply error based on hysteria. ALL, I'm saying is that those who represent the flow to AA as "guaranteed" in any period of time are themselves doing the misrepresenting. I could say I don't know what the point of the continued hard sell is, but that isn't true. Some are simply desperate to get pilots........anyone to come to Envoy based on misrepresented or embellished assumptions. It serves their own interests. I'm not ruining anything, you just disagree with me and that my friend is a basic by-product of this forum. Censorship is not and shouldn't be. |
Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 2009930)
You can lead a horse to water, you just can't force him to drink. I've already given you all the FACTS. 2.5 year upgrade and 6 year flow to AA. I'm sorry you missed the boat but it's a different time now. Yes, I'm flowing by the way. And the "New Seven Fives" will just make it all the better. Potentially 450 additional CA slots as the flow continues. There's few things in life that are sure. Death and taxes are two. Envoy flow to AA is as close to a lock as you can get. You can take that to the bank.
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Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 2009648)
Nope, it's a guarantee. Just look at the numbers and projections I've been posting here.
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Originally Posted by Cujo664
(Post 2009930)
You can lead a horse to water, you just can't force him to drink. I've already given you all the FACTS. 2.5 year upgrade and 6 year flow to AA. I'm sorry you missed the boat but it's a different time now. Yes, I'm flowing by the way. And the "New Seven Fives" will just make it all the better. Potentially 450 additional CA slots as the flow continues. There's few things in life that are sure. Death and taxes are two. Envoy flow to AA is as close to a lock as you can get. You can take that to the bank.
He is also posting things I've never heard or said, while using a screen name designed to make you think he's me. He isn't. |
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