Actually it will not happen in 2017 because they won't get to the post-protected pilots until 2020. You're three years off - though I can't say I'm surprised. You were never known for having your facts straight.

I know when protected pilots start flowing hombre. My personal example was one of the protected. He believes the company is not going to honor the agreement. They do not have good record when it is about honoring contracts. Me too. You do not understnad that the 824 are a agreement with arbitration. The company does not want to be caught not honoring this. Afterword, the flow is written in contracts. And we know how the company honors everything that is written there.

Yo longtimelistener, I think he's saying that if we hire more a month than we flow then the time to flow will get longer for following new hires. Example if we hire 25 a month for a year while we flow 25 a month vs. flow 25 a month and hire a thousand a month. The airline will grow but 2 guys hired 6 months apart will flow at dramatically different times

http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/regional/envoy_air

Look at the flow matrix. The 824 group flows at 30/mo. Next is protected pilots and they will flow at 25/mo. Then you have the DOS group and the will flow at 15/mo. Finally, you have everyone hired after December 2014 and they will flow at a rate of 5 + 1 for every 125 pilots above 480 (maybe 15/mo).
So based on that, a pilot hired today will be in the 15/mo group but yet we are hiring 60/mo so it will take 4 months to flow those 60 through. Thus, right now the flow projection for a new hire is increasing at a 4:1 ratio.

This is correct, growth here has a negative effect on flow times.

Curious, where does the first class fall that was told 2.5 and 5.5. aren't they at 3 yrs now. Keep believing the b.s. the recruiters tell ya.

I think it was announced in May 2015, so they still have time to make good on their projections. We'll see in November of next year how close they are.

Any updates on the reserve times? Moreover, how long can a new hire in 2017 expect to sit Reserve?

Well, if you base your career decision on what random anonymous people say then you my friend are a lost cause.

Go to Skywest or Envoy either way it's not going to be a bad decision. Good luck.

Something that most of you guys don't consider in your calculations is that the number of flow/month, after the protected pilot group have flowed, depends on the size of the company at the time. So basically if we grow, we'll send more pilots/month at AA.

Now what you are saying is true, those who will flow in 5 years, are already working for the company. But even if you flow after 8 years I think it is still a good deal.. In case you don't get hired somewhere else before that time. And things will probably change by then, if they can't get pilots, it will get better.

For those who are considering Envoy, take your ticket now, we have a lot of hiring and that's gonna create a lot of movement. You'll get a line/base you want/good line/good schedule very quickly. Nothing compared to those who are currently with the company. It's a pretty good time to join Envoy.

Though, avoid commuting for Envoy. I have to admit that commuting for this company is not worth it (unless if it's for a short period of time). The bad reserve rules, bad schedules as a junior guy and the junior mans (You'll start at a base where staffing is not great and you'll get JM often during transition as a bottom-of-the-list-guy) will make your life pretty miserable at the beginning if you have to commute.

The trend that I've seen since I got hired 1 year ago, is an overall improvement of the company. Still have a lot of work to do to say it's a great company, but I think in the long run it's worth it.

And to respond to the guy who said "I know a captain who's gonna quit after 10 years to go to Spirit". I haven't met one guy who wants to do that. So it's probably an exception in the company and definitely not the rule. Most of these guys are waiting for the flow and at the same time are applying to United/Delta/Southwest/Alaska(For those north-westereners). Even if life sucks for a lot of them, they know it's definitely worth it after all these years, to wait for AA at least.

Good luck with your decision