The die was cast when Expressjet lost the 175 flying. Sure, nobody in the industry really saw the Covid19 virus coming or having the impact it did and that will probably be what drives the final nail in the coffin.

Does anyone really think that UAL purchased a major stake in Expressjet, awarded them 175 flying, and put a simulator across the street from their training center just to have them fly 25 aircraft? Think about it, does that make sense, financially or otherwise? The plan all along was to have ExpressJet be the 175 operator for United, at least as far as for the companies they owned a major stake in. The other part of the plan was to have TransStates and CommuteAir merge and be the 145 operator. Both of those carriers were having an extremely difficult time finding and keeping pilots. For a variety of reasons, that didn't happen. Here is where the plot thickens!

Remember, just before this mess got started, all regionals were struggling to find applicants. New hire bonuses were through the roof. United had started Aviate as a way to attract and retain pilots for their regional feed. Around the same timeframe ExpressJet was suffering poor performance with their 175 operation in ORD, primarily due to a ridiculous number of sick calls from very senior pilots who were determined to use their sick bank or lose it before retiring. Also remember during this timeframe the company and ALPA had been unable to reach a deal on the so called letter 2 negotiations. The company had been stalling these negotiations for over a year.

United met with Expressjet management right around this time. They were not happy with the 175 situation in ORD, but nevertheless presented a deal to have Expressjet take over the 145 flying from TSA after their operation was wound down. The 175 was the long term future of the company, but XJT management saw an opportunity for immediate growth by taking on the TSA flying. There was no way to take on the "new" 145s and also staff the 175s, so a decision was made to gamble the future of the company on quick growth. On paper, it seemed like it might be a good idea. More aircraft, more flying, more bases, etc. At least one very outspoken member of XJT's negotiating committee was against any of this. He almost spilled the beans about what was going on via social media over a month before anything was to be announced and was promptly forced to resign. He understood what losing the 175 flying meant long term!

Magically though, when this growth was in view, the company finally got serious about the letter 2 negotiations. An agreement in principle had been reached and was just a day or two away from being signed when the pandemic implications were first realized. The deal would have been a sweet one for most at XJT. There was going to be a pay raise and significant quality of life improvements for all. One of the sticking points was that TSA pilots were going to be allowed to transition to XJT, with longevity and seniority, some coming over as virtual street captains. Knowing that this wouldn't sit well with many, there was "hush money" involved to placate the troops. Interestingly, none of this was going to be put up for a vote. The MEC felt that it was such an awesome deal that few would complain, and if they did, it wouldn't be for very long. Who knows if the company would have backed out if in fact the deal had been signed after all of the new developments. My guess is they would have found a way to rescind the contract.

Nobody saw the problem the entire industry is facing coming, at least not in the magnitude that is now reality. The result is that XJT management doubled down and bet everything on the 145. The writing was on the wall when XJT didn't get additional 175s to fly. Those went to Mesa instead. And that writing was burned in when they had to hand over the 25 EMB 175s they were flying over to SkyWest, on an accelerated schedule no less. Hindsight is always 20/20, but it seems like XJT management made a foolish bet with people's jobs on the line. At least one person raised a stink about it, maybe not in the correct way, but he knew the long term future of the company was in the 175 program!

Interesting. Seems plausible.

Dovic91 - What was wrong with out E175 operations? I saw full flow boards and no cancelled flights. Our CCF was 100% for months. That was a very well written set of paragraphs and some of the stuff makes sense, but not our reliability. I never experienced a cancelled flight out on the line this winter except for one weekend due to weather.

I think the big thing that happened 1st was that XJT was not able to grow in 2019. In spite of having over 400 people start training in 2019, they lost as many as they added. So there was no way XJT could staff more 175's without tanking the 145 flying. Add to that the Mesa offer to get the financing to take over the 20 United E175 orders, plus Mesa had staffed up on 175. Subodh said it was his decision to let the 175's go because XJT could not be competitive in the 175 space with only 25 airplanes.

So IMO, it was the failure to grow in 2019 that sealed the fate of the 175s. Could that have been a different outcome if mgmt. had pursued Letter 2 closure in early 2019? What part did the MEC activities to warn new hires away play in this? We'll never know.

The 175 operation in ORD didn’t open until January 2020. The decision to remove the 175s from ExpressJet was announced in February 2020. Are you honestly claiming the reason ExpressJet lost all of the 175s was due to performance over the one and only month the 175s had a base in ORD? I went from holding a line on the 175 in IAH in Dec to being on reserve in Jan due to the 175 base opening in ORD. I hardly ever got called to fly while sitting reserve in Jan. If ORD 175 performance was so bad why wasn’t I sent to ORD to fly or sit out of base reserve? Also, every month the ORD 175 base was open there were IAH 175 CA’s on the base trade list trying to get transferred to ORD. If performance in ORD was so bad those pilots could have been moved to ORD on a months notice with a trade due to vacancy. Personally, I think this spreading rumor of losing 175s due to sick calls is a lie. The trouble is if you tell a lie often enough and long enough some people might actually believe you. I’m a 20 year 175 CA with perfect attendance that thinks even UAL wouldn’t pull a fleet type from a company on one months performance when there were options available to fix the problem, ie reserves available not being called, and pilots on the base trade list trying to get transferred to ORD 175.

Most likely, the blame game on the 175 staffing shortage in ORD was an excuse to help justify the gamble. There were numerous planes parked in December due to a lack of crews. This is a direct quote from SH sent to an XJT pilot who is a friend of mine : "In the second half of December, we will have 8 E175s parked due to the staffing not meeting aircraft deliveries." My guess is that UAL management wasn't happy that the planes they purchased weren't being used. Parking 8 is a pretty big chunk. The company probably conflated the issue in order to blame it on the pilot group. Remember also that during this timeframe XJT ALPA was very busy discouraging pilots from coming to XJT. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face!

You are leaving out ALL the other lift expressjet provides.

The TSA captain problem of captains is suspect as in not a valid reason to shutdown.


=12pt. you had 145 airframes already sitting. You already had easy access to “growth”

Was This agreement agreed upon by people with NDAs but they showed it to the pilot group anyway?!? What? Or do you have inside information?

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I don’t think anyone here really knows United’s motivation.

On the macro side I think it was a simple as:
1. SkyWest stated to shareholders that unprofitable flying was going to expire and only resigned with profitability in mind.
2. Other uax 145 carriers started receiving those xjt planes as the contracts expired.
3. The other UAX 145 carriers could not handle the growth due to attrition.
4. United buys XJT because It makes financial sense.
5. United realizes it didn’t make financial sense.

In two posts you’ve gone from blaming ExpressJet losing the 175s on senior ORD 175 captains calling in sick to blaming staffing on ALPA. Sorry, but your credibility on this issue is shot. My point is we don’t know the real reason the 175s were taken away. We probably won’t ever know. Playing the blame game isn’t going to help. I don’t always agree with our management, but I know they deal with more variables than I’m aware of. At the end of the day I do my job of flying the plane, take care of my crews and passengers, and pass along what I see on the line in IORs and ASAPs. ExpressJet’s troubles have more contributing factors than we’re going to be able to cover in a forum post.

I never said that I personally blamed the sick calls, that was the company's excuse to take the bait dangled before them (more 145s). Who knows the truth on that? But there were staffing issues on the 175s and numerous aircraft were parked. All while ALPA was busy with their expressjetfacts, you need an alternate campaign was going on. Was there a correlation?

The plan was to shift all of that over to a merged TSA/CA outfit and have XJT fly the 175s.

That was only part of the reason, the other contributing factor was the failure to complete the merger.

Not without pilots, you didn't. Additional flying, additional bases, and a significant contract agreement strongly supported by ALPA would have brought in many pilots.

Very few people saw the actual agreement, but the details were certainly leaked. Do you really think stuff like that stays a secret for very long? Especially when the AIP had already been reached and was within a day or two of being signed?

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