TransWorld

Look at that huge retirement bubble in 2020! (And continued large retirements through 2032, at least.)

majorpilot

You have hit the nail on the head. No one is talking about this, instead preferring to blame “kids today” or gubmint policies. The math doesn’t lie, and it rules. Those of us who recognize and adapt to this new normal will be happier than those who don’t, but everyone makes their own choices.

majorpilot

Great graph…so participation during the 50s was less even than during the 2020-21 pandemic, when people stayed home in droves? Interesting.

That graph also shows a gradual trend in the 60s and 70s of people entering the workforce (probably a lot of moms who previously stayed at home) because declining relative wages now required two breadwinners to support their family.

With the aging boomers - a large portion of working age adults - leaving the workforce, we should expect to see the drop in participation. They’re exiting the workforce and their numbers won’t return, as that “boom” hasn’t reoccurred and probably never will again.

pwdrhound

Yes, pretty much at every major except here with the average of 183/yr over the next 10 years (166yr over next 5 years) based on age 65. That's the reality so don't shoot the messenger... No, we don't need age 67...

BertMacklinFBI

are you comparing total retirements as just a number or percentage of the pilot list? I’m just asking, don’t bite my head off.

threeighteen

even if there is a meltdown, jumping to a legacy makes a ton of sense at this point. There will still be a staffing crisis throughout the entire meltdown. Staffing is literally that bad right now.

cargoforlife

So many guys at FDX were at AA and jumped to FDX in early 2000's. Ended up being a great choice. I honestly think if you have been here a year or so going to DL would work out great. But to each their own.

pwdrhound

According to the ALPA FDC MEC website, 833 FDX pilots will turn 65 by the end of 2027 (114/164/162/206/187).

An additional 998 FDX pilots will turn 65 between 2028 and end 2032 (211/201/178/201/207).

This does not account for the people going early or out on medical naturally. If I'm not mistaken, the average retirement age at FDX is 64+. The FDX retirement #s are tiny compared to those at the 3 majors. If age 67 is implemented the picture understandably gets bleaker.

If the FDX DRIVE initiative ends up shrinking the airline to 5000-5500 via outsourcing as they are publicly pushing, we would be looking at roughly 4 years without hiring with just attrition bringing us down to that number. Not exactly a bright future for progression. Do I think this will happen? I have no idea, but the math does not lie if they really push DRIVE and decide to shrink the airline. Looking at a ramp full of FDX 737s in Europe or 747s here, makes one go hmmmm.....

Due to our nonexistent SCOPE, there is simply nothing we can do but watch it happen.

FXLAX

I think that retirement surge in 2020 accounts for all the pilots who took early outs.

BertMacklinFBI

Doesn’t delta have something like 14,500+ pilots? Surely you are comparing percentage of the list retiring and not just numbers of retirements. We are about 40% the size of delta. Of course our numbers are smaller. The 747’s are gone in June or July. That contract is terminated.