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Originally Posted by JackStraw
(Post 3625651)
That actually sounds like a brilliant plan for the company if they’re not interested in hiring for another 5 years and the absolute worst case possible scenario for the last guys on the seniority list. Furloughing would be much better than dragging the pilots along without letting them in on the plan to shrink to more savings. At least with a furlough they could abandon hope and get a career started somewhere without a shrinking fleet.
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Originally Posted by Globemaster2827
(Post 3625652)
Did you look at how that's all broken down? A small percentage involves us. It looked to me like we're 15-20% of $700 million over the next few years. The new sort facilities and fuel savings were about 2/3rds of it with maintenance savings in there... Did you hear we're getting rid of the MDs... Oh yeah... That's your point and that'll save both fuel and maintenance.
They are downsizing things by 200 jobs. Let's assume the average pilot costs them $300k a year counting everything. That's $60 million a year just right there and when you space that out over several years it almost exactly adds up to that percentage of $700 million. Oh yeah... They probably aren't going to make it that long without a new contract, so if we were to assume a 20% pay increase that'd probably be an extra $10-20 million per year they save on those 200 jobs cut... Plus signing bonuses. Also, in this bid they stuffed an extra 200 pilots into the right seat of the 757 which saves millions more by paying these pilots who won't be flying much narrow body instead of widebody pay. This sucks, but they are being transparent about what they're doing there and it's money that's absolutely included in that crew number that you see on the slideshow presented above. If those pilots leave then they'll be saving maybe $250k a year counting everything and who knows if they included those numbers in there as well. Get scared all you want. You can live in fear of this if it makes you feel better. It looks like something they're choosing to do now so that when things pick back up we can penetrate new markets with 767s and 777s instead of MD11s, 757s and Airbuses that are older than most of our pilots. |
Originally Posted by PurpleToolBox
(Post 3625689)
LOL .... I'm not scared. I won't be one of the ones who loses a seat or has a stagnant five years.
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Originally Posted by PurpleToolBox
(Post 3625644)
You completely missed the point. Yes, the MDs are going away. Yes, the company plans to replace them with 767s and 777s. This is all part of DRIVE to save $4B over the next few fiscal years.
Network 2.0 then starts. And we're going to see a reduction of flying hours as the truck-fly-truck model starts. And pushing deferred freight to airline bellies and contractors. The airline is going to be much smaller. Welcome to the new Fedex. The company many of us have put our sweat into over the last 2 to 3 decades is unfortunately gone with Fred's departure. Hope I end up being proven wrong on all accounts... |
Maybe I’ve just become cynical over the years, but I just don’t think this company has the ability to follow through on much of what they’re telling the investor world, other than peeling off the express and ground stickers on their trucks. This whole truck fly truck thing is just gonna clog up the system. They get packages coming into the system everyday and they want to spit them out the other side as quickly as possible to keep the pipes open for the next days incoming packages. It’s like running a speedy laundry service and saying we can save money by hanging the clothes on a clothesline instead of running the electric dryers to save money…the washers are still running and ultimately you wind up with a big pile of wet clothes waiting to be hung up. Are we fat on pilots? Yes, we are. During Covid they started the Indy sunrise sort to alleviate Memphis. That had to be staffed. We also had 100-200 pilots out sick with Covid at any given time. Obviously demand has dropped off, but, that’s just part of the business cycle. Ultimately the MDs will go away, but there’s not a chance in the world this big realignment bid will train out, they can barely handle recurrent training right now. However, when our CEO went on national TV a few months back and tanked our stock price, “whoever” started buying stock at that point has made a 75% return on their investment over the last 6 months…
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Originally Posted by Globemaster2827
(Post 3625623)
Yes and gaining 767s and 777s to replace them. I agree there will probably be a net loss of jets if the market continues like this but generally with down turns there are then upswings that exceed the down turns. If the airplanes sit they cost money that eats into profit. I agree 100% that this is bad, but it's not the end of the world either. We lose 2 jets over this bid and in 20 months things could be much better or worse than they are now economically. I'd be willing to bet that this time next year we're actually hiring to replace pilots who leave for greener pastures.
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Originally Posted by Globemaster2827
(Post 3625641)
So there are no plans for furloughing because we're only 200 over staffing metrics. Even if nobody retired (200 mandatory retirements per year), nobody left (which people on the bottom should), and nobody medicaled out we'd still be north of 4a2c staffing in a downswing for cargo. In 2 years we could see a global upswing in freight demand, the trade war with China end, 600 pilots leave, 400 pilots retire, a new contract, 400 early retirements, order new airplanes like A350s to hit new markets direct like Africa and parts of South America and need 1200 just to meet the current staffing level.
In all honesty this makes sense to retrain us for the new airplanes while there's less freight to move. If they scare the **** out of us during negotiations then that's a feature to them - not a bug. Yes that's optimistic but it's FAR more plausible than furloughs after going through 4a2c when we aren't anywhere close to 4a2c levels by any metric. This isn't good but I don't think anyone should be peeing their pants either unless you're one of the commuters who'll be stuck in the right seat on reserve on the 757 for the next few years. Those guys should absolutely leave and there will be hundreds of them who do. |
Originally Posted by Tuck
(Post 3625832)
Look at the SAM after this trains out - if they continue their plan it’ll be in 4a2c territory.
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This is a cynical investor sentiment DRIVEN attempt to inflate the value of FDX stock. Nothing else. All the prognostication about how this will play out is FUD. These system bids are worthless. Trying to forecast your manning levels 24 months out is foolhardy. This is why no one else in the industry does it.
All these management ploys will only ever result in sugar highs for the stock. Wall Street only rewards growth and innovation. Tesla doesn't have to layoff people and play numbers games to increase the value of their stock because they're growing and innovating and their leadership (seems) competent. Their stock price has been stratospheric. Meanwhile back in Memphis....... Don't make any decisions based on this being the future. The world didn't change in the last 6 months |
Originally Posted by Tuck
(Post 3625828)
you are reading it wrong. This isn’t a change due to a downturn. If economy were booming we’d still do this - it’s about stick price. We haven’t entered a recession yet and UPS hasn’t changed their fleet size or system form at all. This is way bigger and not dependent on economy .
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