Who is going to fly all the 767s showing up in the next few years?

That's the confusing thing to me. We're only losing 2 jets, but we're losing Atlas flying for us and 200 CAs. The whole thing doesn't really make sense.

Displaced MD folks.

You believe these people when they say 18 767s will be coming?

A pilot came to FedEx from United then was rehired after they started hiring after Covid.

Another pilot came from delta and was rehired after realizing it wasn’t a good fit.

They do rehire if that’s something anyone is worried about.

Yeah, they're gonna buy 767s all the way up until the 2027 deadline when they can't anymore.

Perhaps some perspective
 

First off, I have to say that I am very disappointed with the Company's appreciation for the work this pilot group has done over the past 50 years, especially the past 3. Their refusal to negotiate in good faith and put forth reasonable numbers to compensate us for what we have EARNED (and our peers are now earning) is insulting. They should come to the table and offer to compensate us like the professionals we are.

That said, I would like to maybe help some of us off the ledge with a little perspective on the numbers in posting 23-01.

The posting shows we currently have 402 aircraft, 108 narrow and 294 widebody. It also shows current staffing at 5490 pilots, 3099 Captains and 2391 FOs. 2631 of those CAs are widebody, 468 narrow. 2143 FOs are widebody, 248 narrow.

At the end of 20 months (Dec 24) we will have 400 aircraft, 105 narrow and 295 widebody. It also shows max staffing at 5518, an actual increase of 28 positions. Fewer of those will be widebody CA for sure, going to 2465, a decrease of 166. Narrow body CA decrease 56 down to 412 from 468. FOs increase of course from 2391 to 2641, with 2279 of them being widebody and 362 being narrow. More on this 362 number later.

So if you believe the information in the posting (I understand why many are skeptical) the overall number of pilots and aircraft are pretty stable for the next 20 months. Will more reductions be coming? Probably, but for now I think we should all realize that SCOPE is a much bigger issue than this realignment bid. I don't mean to diminish the hardship of being displaced (I have been there) or forced to move domicile (haven't had that displeasure) but I don't think that this posting indicates that the sky is falling. Remember that nearly 300 pilots will reach the mandated retirement age in those same 20 months.

What it does is push some people into lower paying seats and perhaps positions the company to be able to furlough in a couple of years if necessary with way more pilots in the most junior seat (those 362 MEM 75 FOs). Currently the ratio of MEM 75 FO to 75 CA is .47. At the end of the posting it will be .67. With 412 75CAs, current ratio would call for 193 FOs, not 362, so there are possibly 169 too many 75FOs at the end of the posting. Those excess positions will be absorbed by retirements and voluntary attrition and hopefully negate the need for a furlough down the road.

MEM 77 FO/CA ratio goes from 1.11 to 1.36 which seems reasonable. MEM 67 FO/CA ratio similarly increases from .60 to .74. ANC 77 FO/CA ratio goes from 1.16 to 1.20. OAK 67 goes from .65 to .85 and IND goes from .97 to 1.01. All of these seem to leave a little room for the company to have some leeway in the event of furloughs of some junior folks still holding on to some of the widebody right seats. Or perhaps the nature of the flying will require more FOs to CAs than in the past (more RFOs?)

In any case, I am not suggesting that the company is going to furlough, in fact just the opposite at the present time and for the next 20-24 months I don't think its likely at all. Although I am disappointed with the nature of this bid I don't think it is the signal that the end is near for FedEx. Realignment? Yeah, in a big way, but the bottom line is there should be at least a seat for everybody at the end of this posting. That said, if I were in the bottom 500 and had other options I would certainly be looking seriously at exercising them and go to a company that has agreed to pay their pilots what they are worth.

Open to comments, especially when doing math in public.

Thanks. Best summary I’ve read so far.

Some of it was ok I guess but he's telling people that this is so they can "furlough" which won't happen here. 4a2c could happen but that'd require much more contraction than is forecast. It is possible that the 757 could drive the system average metrics down over time but they'd have to train this out first and go through the 4a2c process while losing airplanes and cancelling orders for new ones.

My guess is that we start hiring again next March or April after we see 200-300 guys leave in January and 200 people retire.

I don’t mean to be one of the angry 12 men. Have you been paying attention??? They just announced the new network where they’re going to utilize trucks, contractors and belly freight to the maximum.

What do you think that does to the need for pilots?