The Unconscionable TA
07-23-2023 | 10:07 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,203
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From: Gear Monkey
….The MBCBP only "looks" possible because they are using 6.5% ROI which sounds pretty inflated to me and taking all calculation out to age 65. The company is on the hook to "make whole" any losses when a pilot wants to withdraw. We are allowed to withdraw the 33K per year (max number) once you reach 59.5. There is no way the company will ever want to pay up in order to make pilots whole. It is a lot more prudent for the company to "ensure" the funds are invested to never lose capital. They don't care what the returns will be only that the accounts don't go below the capital amount. If you invest to protect capital, like all of us approaching retirement start to do, you will start getting much lower ROI. 6.5 is a pipe dream. IF 6.5 was truely possible, then ALPA would have trotted out 5-10 different examples from other MBCBPs at various companies to show how their returns are stacking up. There are no examples. No actual fact based numbers…...
Data Sources: Vanguard & Fidelity 10-year forecasts…that’s the longest forecast they will provide for legal/fiduciary reasons.
Based on 55% equity index/ 45% bond index.
The current 10-year forecasts range from 3.875 - 5.425%
Of course, ASSUMING a larger 6.5% return will make the final modeler estimates bigger, especially over a longer time horizon.
Solution in TA 2.0 ??
Raise the 11% annual contribution.
If you listened carefully during the road shows and on-line Q&As, your NC even stated this can be a reasonable request/strategy…..in the future! (But Not now)
So I guess this really isn’t a PERMANENT solution to retirement for ALL….but I am confident that ALPA can do the math. They just need to be willing to do it objectively and critically.
In Transparency, Integrity & Unity (for Everyone),
DLax
Last edited by DLax85; 07-23-2023 at 10:39 AM.
07-23-2023 | 10:08 AM
#32
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 847
Likes: 87
How do you approach them with the question. I’m guessing someone with a no lanyard on (not saying you do) isnt going to get a bunch of admitted yes voters, for the sake of CRM (thank god). I’ve flown with 2 no voters out of 10 pilots in the past month. None of them know how I voted.
Also, I’ve flown with three guys. All less than three years. Nobody is excited for anything in this TA at that range. Jumpseated with another crew (757) who were outspoken critics. So had roughly five or six opinions and all were a no.
07-23-2023 | 09:01 PM
#33
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,371
Likes: 12
You mean like when you “”strenuously object” to the contract and expect the company to give you more money and get “Over-Ruled” anyway?
07-24-2023 | 04:16 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,203
Likes: 0
From: Gear Monkey
Is that your take away from the movie?
…. Or was there something in there about true unity, especially for our most junior?
In Transparency, Integrity & Unity (for Everyone),
DLax
p.s. We provide pilot services, they provide money. So yes - I think they’ll keep talking, and then we will both need to make some important decisions again. Whatever leverage we had in April still exits, and there will be even more every peak. We watch UPS - UPS watches us. Customers watch both.
Last edited by DLax85; 07-24-2023 at 04:29 AM.
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