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NotMrNiceGuy 01-08-2024 12:07 PM


Originally Posted by Viper25 (Post 3748121)
They got bailed out because they were too big to fail. They weren’t bailed out after 9/11 because they were not too big to fail. 4 carriers have 80% of the market share. It never used to be like that.

The other factor is retirements. There has never been a retirement wave like this one. And it will blunt staffing overages for a while to come. There was no such shock absorber in previous crises.

I ask again, how long as it been since the big 3 furloughed?

I get your point. Not trying to be antagonistic, but American furloughed during COVID.

Viper25 01-08-2024 12:16 PM


Originally Posted by NotMrNiceGuy (Post 3748128)
I get your point. Not trying to be antagonistic, but American furloughed during COVID.

They furloughed. And unfurloughed because of the bailout. And the pilots got back pay.

Delta sent furlough letters and would’ve done the same thing if not for an 11th hour LOA and the government bailout.

The American furlough during COVID wasn’t actually a furlough. It was a threat of furlough that didn’t truly happen, despite a tiny gap between (repaid) unemployment and the bailout. If the bailout by chance happened to be slightly earlier, that gap wouldn’t exist at all and they’d be the same as Delta (not furloughing).


The fact that American’s furlough “failed” is actually what proves my entire point anyway.

NotOldNotYoung 01-08-2024 01:03 PM


Originally Posted by Viper25 (Post 3748121)
They got bailed out because they were too big to fail. They weren’t bailed out after 9/11 because they were not too big to fail. 4 carriers have 80% of the market share. It never used to be like that.

The other factor is retirements. There has never been a retirement wave like this one. And it will blunt staffing overages for a while to come. There was no such shock absorber in previous crises.

I ask again, how long as it been since the big 3 furloughed?

Being too big to fail does not imply too big to cut. If demand falls off and they become overmanned enough, they can and will furlough just like FedEx could furlough if it makes business sense. I get concerned when I see rapid growth. What goes up usually comes back down to a normal trend just like what we see now post-Covid growth mania.


Furlough doesn’t equal failure to a business…but it sure feels like it to the furloughed employees.

Viper25 01-08-2024 01:10 PM


Originally Posted by NotOldNotYoung (Post 3748163)
Being too big to fail does not imply too big to cut. If demand falls off and they become overmanned enough, they can and will furlough just like FedEx could furlough if it makes business sense. I get concerned when I see rapid growth. What goes up usually comes back down to a normal trend just like what we see now post-Covid growth mania.


Furlough doesn’t equal failure to a business…but it sure feels like it to the furloughed employees.

Absolutely agree. The pax airlines can still furlough and they are still more sensitive to economic volatility than cargo. I am just saying that the traditional line of thinking about pax and furloughs is outdated.

NotMrNiceGuy 01-08-2024 01:10 PM


Originally Posted by Viper25 (Post 3748132)
They furloughed. And unfurloughed because of the bailout. And the pilots got back pay.

Delta sent furlough letters and would’ve done the same thing if not for an 11th hour LOA and the government bailout.

The American furlough during COVID wasn’t actually a furlough. It was a threat of furlough that didn’t truly happen, despite a tiny gap between (repaid) unemployment and the bailout. If the bailout by chance happened to be slightly earlier, that gap wouldn’t exist at all and they’d be the same as Delta (not furloughing).


The fact that American’s furlough “failed” is actually what proves my entire point anyway.

Again. The industry has changed. I’m with you. But the nasty thing about furlough is personal and familial upheaval. I flew with at least half a dozen American furloughees. Two didn’t want to leave, but at the time felt there was no other choice. One has since moved on to DAL. They would tell you it was a harsh experience to go through.

But again, your point is clear and we are in a new era, as the kids say.

TheBear 01-08-2024 01:44 PM


Originally Posted by Viper25 (Post 3748121)
They got bailed out because they were too big to fail. They weren’t bailed out after 9/11 because they were not too big to fail. 4 carriers have 80% of the market share. It never used to be like that.

The other factor is retirements. There has never been a retirement wave like this one. And it will blunt staffing overages for a while to come. There was no such shock absorber in previous crises.

I ask again, how long as it been since the big 3 furloughed?

I agree with most of your points, but perhaps the better question is: how long has it been since the big 3 started hiring again?

max8222 01-08-2024 01:46 PM

They got bailed out because the government was trying to stablize the economy and business until the COVID shut down eased. The pax airlines took advantage of the free money and paid employees not to work and to payout early retirements.

That does not sound like a down turn in the economy bailout. It was a global pandemic bailout, big difference.

BlueMoon 01-08-2024 01:59 PM


Originally Posted by Merle Haggard (Post 3748127)
Actually, highly leveraged aircraft purchases bring the interests of aircraft finance markets and Boeing to the "too big to fail" table as well - making it even less likely that the government would sit on its hands.

Good point.

the company won’t fail, but they make their employees work for less to “save the company” from managements poor decisions.

I’m not sure the government will bail out ann airline if it is an economical cycle that puts a carrier into a precarious financial position.

With retirements I don’t think their be a furlough anytime soon. It doesn’t mean they won’t ask for concessions if times get tight.

Viper25 01-08-2024 02:16 PM


Originally Posted by NotMrNiceGuy (Post 3748172)
The industry has changed. I’m with you. But the nasty thing about furlough is personal and familial upheaval. I flew with at least half a dozen American furloughees. Two didn’t want to leave, but at the time felt there was no other choice. One has since moved on to DAL. They would tell you it was a harsh experience to go through.

Total agreement.

JustInFacts 01-08-2024 02:24 PM


Originally Posted by NotMrNiceGuy (Post 3746962)
Our Airbus rates have always been tied to Legacy rates. Even before the 777 was on FedEx property. We’re not changing it now just so some folks that benefited from it the past 20 years can also get a pension bump before jumping ship.

Nobody is shooting for industry standard anyway, so it’s all a moot point. Industry leading hourly rates of pay.

When a new wide body (larger than the MD) was to come on property, the intent was to have it pay above the WB rate. Just like the A380 rates. We lost the grievance, but made up for it through BKO.

Not a very good history lesson. Our Airbus rates have always been lumped in with our other WB rates. They were nevery tied to Legacy rates.

We negotiated for BKO at the same time we negotiated for the A380 rates. We didn't make up for anything with the BKO we already had.


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