Blue horseshoe loves Bluestar Airliines
02-25-2024 | 05:22 AM
#181
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
I would offer a contrarian opinion; since 2018 UA has gone from $38B long term debt to $63B in long term debt, almost double in 5 years. Could pay off and the aggressive growth strategy may work. But this game has been played before and it doesn’t always work out well. Might be a little nervous with all that debt. But, just an opinion.
As was said, pilots were all sure AA was a dead man walking because of debt. Yet they have recovered from COVID financially better than JB, F9 and NK.
United's debt is increasing because of an aggressive re-fleeting plan, which comes with many benefits, and an aggressive growth plan. The big 4 are doing so well because of scale and network relevance, it is not that much of a stretch to think that more scale and more network relevance might actually pay off for them, especially as all the smaller companies are floundering.
02-25-2024 | 05:38 AM
#182
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 1,877
Likes: 199
Those numbers are meaningless without any context. What happened to revenue? What happened to other costs, such as fuel cost per ASM?
As was said, pilots were all sure AA was a dead man walking because of debt. Yet they have recovered from COVID financially better than JB, F9 and NK.
United's debt is increasing because of an aggressive re-fleeting plan, which comes with many benefits, and an aggressive growth plan. The big 4 are doing so well because of scale and network relevance, it is not that much of a stretch to think that more scale and more network relevance might actually pay off for them, especially as all the smaller companies are floundering.
As was said, pilots were all sure AA was a dead man walking because of debt. Yet they have recovered from COVID financially better than JB, F9 and NK.
United's debt is increasing because of an aggressive re-fleeting plan, which comes with many benefits, and an aggressive growth plan. The big 4 are doing so well because of scale and network relevance, it is not that much of a stretch to think that more scale and more network relevance might actually pay off for them, especially as all the smaller companies are floundering.
02-25-2024 | 05:40 AM
#183
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 556
Likes: 2
Those numbers are meaningless without any context. What happened to revenue? What happened to other costs, such as fuel cost per ASM?
As was said, pilots were all sure AA was a dead man walking because of debt. Yet they have recovered from COVID financially better than JB, F9 and NK.
United's debt is increasing because of an aggressive re-fleeting plan, which comes with many benefits, and an aggressive growth plan. The big 4 are doing so well because of scale and network relevance, it is not that much of a stretch to think that more scale and more network relevance might actually pay off for them, especially as all the smaller companies are floundering.
As was said, pilots were all sure AA was a dead man walking because of debt. Yet they have recovered from COVID financially better than JB, F9 and NK.
United's debt is increasing because of an aggressive re-fleeting plan, which comes with many benefits, and an aggressive growth plan. The big 4 are doing so well because of scale and network relevance, it is not that much of a stretch to think that more scale and more network relevance might actually pay off for them, especially as all the smaller companies are floundering.
02-25-2024 | 05:54 AM
#184
The REAL Bluedriver
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 6,935
Likes: 0
From: Airbus Capt
Agreed, but I’m not 100% in agreement with the AA recovery argument. The Debt-to-Equity ratio for B6 as of Dec 2023 was 3.15. The Debt-to-Equity ratio for AA is -13.12. Notice the negative sign in front of AA’s, that’s not exactly a better recovery than B6. Not saying your argument is wrong and they don’t have the capacity to service that debt, but I wouldn’t say their balance sheet is better. Remember capacity discipline and revenue affect all airlines, even the Big 4. Too much capacity, less revenue for all airlines to service debt, even the Big 4.
02-25-2024 | 06:05 AM
#185
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 556
Likes: 2
Well, I certainly didn't say AA had a better balance sheet. Just said they have recovered better. They are profitable, we are not. Just saying nothing is as simple as one metric without context. United has an aggressive growth plan, but I also think they plan on taking that capacity/revenue from what they see are 1-2 failing ULCCs/LCCs.
Last edited by Clear Right; 02-25-2024 at 06:16 AM.
02-25-2024 | 06:21 AM
#186
On Reserve
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 88
Likes: 4
I would offer a contrarian opinion; since 2018 UA has gone from $38B long term debt to $63B in long term debt, almost double in 5 years. Could pay off and the aggressive growth strategy may work. But this game has been played before and it doesn’t always work out well. Might be a little nervous with all that debt. But, just an opinion.
02-25-2024 | 06:31 AM
#187
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Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 556
Likes: 2
According to Macrotrends.net Debt-to-Equity chart, United Airlines Holdings as of Dec 2023 long term debt was $61.78B, and was as high as $65B in June of 2023. According to the same website, United Airlines Holdings total liabilities in Sept 2023 was $64B.
Last edited by Clear Right; 02-25-2024 at 06:41 AM.
02-25-2024 | 07:30 AM
#188
Line Holder
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 919
Likes: 27
I am skeptical that the prepayment to spirit shareholders are one time expenses and therefore aren't included in the GAAP earnings data. But I honestly don't know. Just surprised if this were true why they aren't saying it.
02-25-2024 | 08:04 AM
#189
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 200
Likes: 59
I’m not sure how we gave market share away in Bos. All delta had to do was move back into their very large terminal.
I’m not sure what we could do to counter them there we have tried to grab every gate possible and as the 220s come on line we will have way more ASMs
Now we probably lost people to our crap operation that I will give you.
I’m not sure what we could do to counter them there we have tried to grab every gate possible and as the 220s come on line we will have way more ASMs
Now we probably lost people to our crap operation that I will give you.
02-25-2024 | 08:40 AM
#190
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2017
Posts: 62
Likes: 0
I think not focusing on making Boston more of a fortress hub is going to hurt us for years. Their pre Covid plans were the right ones. I have hope that JG will refocus.
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