Basically every one of my FOs in the last 2 months has had upcoming interviews or class dates. Mostly UA. The fact that Ryan R (mgmt pilot/recruiter/person in a lot of jetblue pictures) just went to UAL is pretty telling. Gonna be an attrition bloodbath in the next 18 months methinks. Oddly they just RIFd half the 320 check airmen and put them on inactive status and were talking about reducing the 220 check airmen…but it sounds like they just realized their mistake underestimating attrition and are going to reverse course on that. Winter said a couple months ago hardly anybody was leaving and they only had a handful of PRIA requests. Anecdotally I know that isn’t the case today.

And I heard that’s why they did this supplemental…just to create some vacancies for more newhires, and that there will also be another 220 supplemental.

To answer your question, Nov had 14 losses, about half retirements half other airlines. Oct had about 18. Similar ratio of retirements to resignations there as well.

 

What's interesting is that it was the opposite for me before I downgraded. I'd query the young guys and only a handful said they had apps in. The vast majority said they were happy here and didn't intend on going anywhere else. Now they very well could have been blowing smoke (not sure why they would) but what I have found surprising is that quite a few of the older guys I've talked to are the ones filling out apps and hoping for a call. There's been a few guys I've talked to senior to me who are updating apps frequently which is also surprising/telling IMO.

 

Just over a decade at B6. Just put the apps out and called all the corporate contacts from when I was an FSI instructor and corporate contract pilot. (Couple of corporate type ratings). Less than a decade to retirement. looking to base here in Texas. Have land, an airplane and a hangar, livestock, and low cost of living here in a rural county. Not moving to a B6 base and the commute to mediocre seniority is just not doing it for me. I could “justify” a commute if seniority or QOL was better here but it’s not. I’m a 2 hr Drive to DFW and DAL and 4 to IAH. For me, it’s just my time to go do something else.

 

So you guys think there is chance for hiring Q1 next year ?

 

I’ve been waiting several weeks for IOE. Then I’m going to opt for the warm up sim… so 6-8 weeks for 220 IOE seems accurate right now.

 

Who is Ryan R?

 

Management has said they plan on hiring in the Spring, if not then, definitely by end of summer. This was said to us in a couple of meetings and recurrent. There's still apparently a pool from the gateway program but I have no idea how deep that pool is.

 

They have to clean out the Gateway pool first. I suspect it will be late 2026 before anyone off the street gets a call for interviews.

 

Yeah, after 9+ years of stagnation patiently waiting to upgrade only to be back in the right seat our attrition is going to moon.

 

Per JW in the Pilot pocket session today: "We are overstaffed by 180 FO's. When that supply is exhausted, we will start to hire". They also put out a vacancy bid with positive vacancy numbers for JFK and BOS 220 FO's, which JW said today was, in part, to "create vacancy for hiring needs in the future". They are most certainly setting up to begin hiring, and are openly talking about it now. Very good news!

For context, we lost 18 pilots last month. But with how heavily hiring is picking up at DL/UA/AA, that'll undoubtedly go up to 50+ a month soon, and continue that way through 2026 into 2027 (based on the hiring projections of the big 3). Wouldn't be surprised if we open up the hiring window in March/April. But like others have said, they have hundreds of Gateway people that have been waiting, so they'll have to push them through before we open to off-the-street hiring.