Sure there will. But only after we go through bankruptcy, sell half the fleet, sell all the slots, lose half the employees and become a shell of what we are today. Someone will pick up the carcass for cheap. Because this is the alternative if no one wants us now. What we are doing now isn’t working, hasn’t been working and it’s insane management calls adding 2 new cities on a seasonal basis “growth”. Pfhhhhhhh

 

I thought you were describing Spirit for a second there. Same story, I guess, but JB is definitely in better shape.

 

It's funny people actually think this way and believe it.

 

I work here and I think this unfortunately. Hope and Jetforward are pills I just can't swallow.

Our airline has certainly shown a willingness to set the furniture on fire to keep the house warm, why wouldn't they trend continue? It's already happening on a slow scale.

 

yeah it’s sad isn’t it? I don’t want it to happen but I’m having a really hard time seeing how we succeed on our own. Our debt levels have exploded over the past few years and it’s amazing because all we’ve done is shrink. Not like management took on debt to make us grow substantially. We took on debt and shrunk. Makes sense. So while I hope it doesn’t happen, I’ve thought for a while now we are just a few steps behind spirit.

 

We won't succeed on our own. I don't disagree with that part of yorur premise. What I disagree with is that we slowly sell off our operation, piece by piece, trying to survive as long as possible and maybe find a new "Sweet Spot" as a niche, East coast regional-level operator.

That's not happening. Not to mention while CH 11 could come sooner than later, CH 7 is years away. You think these guys want to chance waiting for the next administration to try this?

We're going to have an airline bid for us. More than likely more than one because once the first domino falls, there will be others that jump in to defend their turf. To say that United or any airline can just sit back and wait until JB liquidates and then just buy what they want at pennies on the dollar is laughable. That's not how it works. There is ZERO guarantee these airlines end up with the slots/planes/etc because many airlines will be bidding on the same thing.

So if United, or Alaska or whomever wants certain real estate and assets, then they're going to have to pay. Over pay to be more specific. There are several creative ways that airlines can deal with debt, so while it's not ideal, JB's debt is not a deal breaker for several airlines who are kicking the tires right now.

 

Uh... that might be exactly how this works out. What you are saying is certainly possible, but you are stating it as an absolute fact. It's one possible scenario, the other is the Spirit scenario others have outlined. The market thinks the spirit scenario is more likely. I hope you are correct, but to speak as if this is all a done deal and people are worrying about nothing is foolish and short-sighted.

I think management has realized our only viable path is getting sold, but that is still outside of anyone's direct control. Maybe our debt is worse than the value we may bring. Or maybe the DOJ blocks it again, we all thought Spirit was a done deal until it wasn't and they're not going to exist anymore.

 

I think I have a bad habit of stating my position where others perceive it as me taking it as fact. (Re: oil prices). I'll work on that.

No, I know there are no guarantees in anything in life, this process is no different. My comments come from my BELIEF that while the airlines would love to pick up JB's assets at bargain basement prices, the timeline for them to potentially achieve that is not in their favor. I still believe that any transaction will culminate before the end of Trump's term. If you back that up using traditional merger timelines, I think any airline would need to make their move sooner than later. Like this summer/early fall sooner. I no longer believe JB management has faith they can pull us out of the nose dive they put us in to begin with. So they're looking to pull their (golden) parachutes and put this 25 year social experiment to bed once and for all. I still believe that the Spirit deal was killed by the last administration due to their ideology concerning mergers/acquisitions. I do not believe the Trump DOJ has the same philosophy.

So yeah, I think this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to gain a foothold in some extremely high-sought after real estate. Each airline we've discussed has it's own reasoning as to why it would benefit them. We'll see how this plays out. The next 3-6 months will be interesting to follow. Then once (if) an airline makes its first move, that's when the popcorn gets popped and things get really interesting.

Again, disclaimer. Not fact based writing. My opinion stated in very confident undertones with zero inside information other than my own pea brain thoughts and ideas based on what I've observed.

 

Delta stands to lose the most if UAL re-enters JFK. UAL stands to gain by entering JFK. SWA does not appear to be interested and ALK also reportedly not interested. In reality, all these airlines can sit back and watch Jetblue implode which is the current trajectory. Once that happens assets are sold off and no one airline will have the ability to acquire just what they want but also multiple airlines will take pieces. In the end, should that scenario play out, DAL and UAL still win because the competitive nature of the NE does not change appreciatively either way.

I’m not one to believe jetblue is as desired or important as many believe.

 

Right. I think some people really think we add a ton of value to a company that buys us. Maybe, but just like how we benefit from spirits demise, these companies can mostly get what they want just from sitting back kicking up their feet and watching. Who else would even be allowed to buy those New York slots that UAL wants? DL? AA? This end up being a case of why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free.