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Old 04-14-2026 | 12:56 PM
  #14671  
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Originally Posted by BunkerF16
I think I have a bad habit of stating my position where others perceive it as me taking it as fact. (Re: oil prices). I'll work on that.

No, I know there are no guarantees in anything in life, this process is no different. My comments come from my BELIEF that while the airlines would love to pick up JB's assets at bargain basement prices, the timeline for them to potentially achieve that is not in their favor. I still believe that any transaction will culminate before the end of Trump's term. If you back that up using traditional merger timelines, I think any airline would need to make their move sooner than later. Like this summer/early fall sooner. I no longer believe JB management has faith they can pull us out of the nose dive they put us in to begin with. So they're looking to pull their (golden) parachutes and put this 25 year social experiment to bed once and for all. I still believe that the Spirit deal was killed by the last administration due to their ideology concerning mergers/acquisitions. I do not believe the Trump DOJ has the same philosophy.

So yeah, I think this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to gain a foothold in some extremely high-sought after real estate. Each airline we've discussed has it's own reasoning as to why it would benefit them. We'll see how this plays out. The next 3-6 months will be interesting to follow. Then once (if) an airline makes its first move, that's when the popcorn gets popped and things get really interesting.

Again, disclaimer. Not fact based writing. My opinion stated in very confident undertones with zero inside information other than my own pea brain thoughts and ideas based on what I've observed.
I appreciate you clarifying your opinions. For what it's worth, I agree to your timeline. The next 6 months are the only semi realistic time for an offer to be made. I think if B6 is single in 2027 it's a slow march to the grave.
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Old 04-14-2026 | 01:00 PM
  #14672  
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Originally Posted by benzoate
Delta stands to lose the most if UAL re-enters JFK. UAL stands to gain by entering JFK. SWA does not appear to be interested and ALK also reportedly not interested. In reality, all these airlines can sit back and watch Jetblue implode which is the current trajectory. Once that happens assets are sold off and no one airline will have the ability to acquire just what they want but also multiple airlines will take pieces. In the end, should that scenario play out, DAL and UAL still win because the competitive nature of the NE does not change appreciatively either way.

I’m not one to believe jetblue is as desired or important as many believe.
Again, I have zero doubt (strong opinion, not fact) JB will not be anywhere near CH 7 filing for several years. I mean if they can't kill Spirit off FFS, and they don't have anything. Crap product, crap engines, all leased and crap bases, then JB is YEARS away.

We can debate how valuable we think JB is, but I think there's an argument to be made that several airlines have overtly stated their positions for wanting back into JFK and/or the NE. For airlines with little to zero influence in BOS/JFK and even FLL, this could be the last chance to instantly gain that access and influence and broaden their route structure.

I also agree that DL would not be happy if UA is the airline that makes this move. If it's AK or say SWA? They probably care less. But that only goes to strengthen my position that the first offer made public won't be the last/only as other airlines will evaluate how that merger would affect their positions and you'd likely to get several responses/lobbying for States to file law suits to block any deal. That's where a DOJ more amenable to allowing the free market to work on its own benefits an early strike rather than to wait.
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Old 04-15-2026 | 05:23 AM
  #14673  
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Originally Posted by BunkerF16
Again, I have zero doubt (strong opinion, not fact) JB will not be anywhere near CH 7 filing for several years. I mean if they can't kill Spirit off FFS, and they don't have anything. Crap product, crap engines, all leased and crap bases, then JB is YEARS .......
I agree with this.
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Old 04-15-2026 | 09:23 AM
  #14674  
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I think in the next 3-6 months(using B16’s) time frame you will see a deferral of 220’s and a pause on domestic first. It will be labeled as a production or certification issue. I believe the BOD is seeing lukewarm interest at their price. How low can they go? Good question. Perhaps the investors are just trying to not to lose any more. Someone with better understanding of that part please chime in. I just don’t see the juice being worth the squeeze.
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Old 04-15-2026 | 09:45 AM
  #14675  
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Originally Posted by benzoate
I think in the next 3-6 months(using B16’s) time frame you will see a deferral of 220’s and a pause on domestic first. It will be labeled as a production or certification issue. I believe the BOD is seeing lukewarm interest at their price. How low can they go? Good question. Perhaps the investors are just trying to not to lose any more. Someone with better understanding of that part please chime in. I just don’t see the juice being worth the squeeze.
Ding Ding Ding!
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Old 04-15-2026 | 10:10 AM
  #14676  
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Originally Posted by benzoate
I think in the next 3-6 months(using B16’s) time frame you will see a deferral of 220’s and a pause on domestic first. It will be labeled as a production or certification issue. I believe the BOD is seeing lukewarm interest at their price. How low can they go? Good question. Perhaps the investors are just trying to not to lose any more. Someone with better understanding of that part please chime in. I just don’t see the juice being worth the squeeze.

If there were numbers exchanged with united, specifically. That would make sense Kirby publicly down playing the "need" for jetblue, to make them think there isn't a higher offer. Then it would make sense jetblue leaking exploring other potential suitors, to maybe try and up United's offer. Then united saying, well hell, we'll just go after AA maybe. All this is just pure speculation. I think the 220 will get shelved due to Capex concerns going forward with no money coming in. But if you see first class get pushed back into 2027... then I think that's a trigger that something is up. Save the Capex money now, balance sheet looks better even if it's minimal. Plus no sense configuring planes, just to have them reconfigured right away via another companies plans. Especially where jetblue has said this is where the money is, so if they give up on first class configuration... it's either merger or jetblue is fast track ch11. I give JetBlue until October 1 .. nothing by that date, and nobody wanted to buy. Maybe a buyer out of bankruptcy, but a smaller jetblue for sure. If we don't hear more "specific" leaks in a few months, then there probably isn't a buyer.
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Old 04-15-2026 | 10:20 AM
  #14677  
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I would like to know if “first class” has already been accounted for. I just realized that could affect its installation but to your point and outside of keeping up appearances why configure aircraft unnecessarily. June/July is supposedly the time frame to start may we expect some clarification prior to that?
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Old 04-15-2026 | 11:04 AM
  #14678  
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Originally Posted by Ted Striker
If there were numbers exchanged with united, specifically. That would make sense Kirby publicly down playing the "need" for jetblue, to make them think there isn't a higher offer. Then it would make sense jetblue leaking exploring other potential suitors, to maybe try and up United's offer. Then united saying, well hell, we'll just go after AA maybe. All this is just pure speculation. I think the 220 will get shelved due to Capex concerns going forward with no money coming in. But if you see first class get pushed back into 2027... then I think that's a trigger that something is up. Save the Capex money now, balance sheet looks better even if it's minimal. Plus no sense configuring planes, just to have them reconfigured right away via another companies plans. Especially where jetblue has said this is where the money is, so if they give up on first class configuration... it's either merger or jetblue is fast track ch11. I give JetBlue until October 1 .. nothing by that date, and nobody wanted to buy. Maybe a buyer out of bankruptcy, but a smaller jetblue for sure. If we don't hear more "specific" leaks in a few months, then there probably isn't a buyer.
I think this is correct. October is definitely pushing it timeline wise if something is going to happen. Not sure if the busy summer season impacts this kind of thing or not.
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Old 04-15-2026 | 01:04 PM
  #14679  
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June is the start date for First Class conversions. If they’re not talking about the First Class introduction when June comes around, then you have your answer. You don’t need to wait until October to connect those dots.

And correct, the First Class product has been “The lifeline JetBlue needs” for the last year according to management. To scrub that program is a clear message that five compartments have been breached.
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Old 04-15-2026 | 04:14 PM
  #14680  
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Originally Posted by Boomer
June is the start date for First Class conversions. If they’re not talking about the First Class introduction when June comes around, then you have your answer. You don’t need to wait until October to connect those dots.

And correct, the First Class product has been “The lifeline JetBlue needs” for the last year according to management. To scrub that program is a clear message that five compartments have been breached.
This was addressed yesterday, First Class is now moved to later in the year.
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