Not saying that it can’t happen, I’m just saying that the cost of buying the whole probably far exceeds the value of the choice pieces that are desired and that would actually be kept. In the case of UA, Kirby definitely wants back into JFK, but only at the right price. He also just wants a limited presence to run some premium transcon flights to the west coast, not a hub. There also hasn’t been any real interest expressed in expanding their presence in BOS or anything else that a merger would bring to the table. I just don’t see him buying a company where the bulk of the operation is not wanted just to get the one thing that is desired. It’s kind of like buying a used bonanza that has major maintenance issues just because the interior is really nice. Not saying that it can’t happen, I’m just saying that my guess is that UA would rather do without and continue with their current plan than go down that path.

 

What Kirby WANTS and what he has to do could very well be 2 different things. Of course he wants to pick at the JB bones and get them for pennies on the dollar. But that more than likely won't be possible. AK didn't want to overpay for VA either but they paid a significant premium to keep JB from getting them and infiltrating the West Coast. If it's true that there are 3 airlines (at least) kicking the tires, best laid plans often go out the window when you're forced to chance directions due to external forces you can't control.

 

I think that the real issue is that this not what Kirby wants and what he is willing to do to get it. I see it as a matter of what he thinks is needed and at what cost. The marketing agreement that is already in place gives him most of what he feels is needed. His foot is in the door and he can chip away at more. As long as JetBlue is in business, he has most of what he wants without the mess and expense of a merger. If they follow the path of Spirit there will be plenty of bones to pick over.

 

For argument sake, let’s all agree that a whole jetblue has value.

This has to start a bidding war and the equivalent in law suits. AA cannot allow UAL into JFK as this affects them the most negatively. DAL would be fine but UAL could add pressure when, in reality, Jetblue provides very little. How SWA or ALK deal with the issue remains to be seen. Neither has shown interest in JFK.

 

Man you guys have a very close relationship with your CEO. You guys all talk like he flys right next to you. I know it’s what he has said in public and at meetings so it must be true.

The one thing that is interesting is he has that agreement with us which would probably help us stay in business so it’s also hard to pick over the bones as you say.

As for the bold you do understand what that comment means for our pilot group right? I probably wouldn’t be so caviler about it, but that’s me.

 

I literally picketed with these guys when they weren’t getting the contract they wanted, and now they’re all, like, obsessed fangirls. It’s so weird.

 

No relationship with management and don’t mean to sound cavalier, just trying to think like they do. I don’t wish harm to any employee group, but management types just see us as items on an expense sheet and make decisions accordingly. My position is that they don’t see JetBlue going away any time soon and that the marketing agreement will serve their needs without going down the M&A path. The comparison to Spirit is that they most likely view a worst case scenario for JetBlue as a slow downsizing where the market has time to adapt and fill the gaps, not a sudden cessation of service. I hope the agreement does help you guys stay in business, and I think that it will play an important role in that outcome. Again, I don’t wish harm on anyone, I just don’t think that the Willis Tower crowd sees the value in dealing with a M&A when the marketing agreement gives them most of what they want.

 

That's not the point I'm making in terms of what's going to force him to act. The type of flying JB engages in (moving more towards high yield customers) and the engine issues are over with for the most part. They're nowhere near the condition Spirit was/is in. Those thinking JB is going to going to go CH 7 are kidding themselves. That's a long, LONG ways away, if ever. CH 11? Possible, but even that doesn't ensure JB's demise. What if AK or SW or even AA make a move on JB, you think Kirby is going to sit back and just let that happen?

 

Could be a very real possibility. The other possibility is for the first time in forever (yes I have kids) JetBlue has signaled they are actually for sale. That would change a lot of things. Not saying it will work but if we look back at what Jonyc the blogger put out about a 3 step plan with United and a report from I think an Italian newspaper a lot of this stuff is looking very on point.

Merge don’t merge I don’t care as long as we have jobs I don’t really want to start over.

 

In the short term at least, I think that potential suitors are much more focused on the spike in fuel prices and how it effects their bottom line than on acquiring anyone. Also, just because something is for sale doesn’t mean that buyers will be lined up. Even without the spike in fuel cost, I think the big 4 are more interested in things moving at their current pace and don’t want want to deal with a M&A. I also think that their plans can change as fast as the weather, either way, we’re all just along for the ride.