Flyby1206

This is at least the 2nd time in recent months they have been spotted at F9. Hmm...

seekingblue

Thanks for posting!

Ted Striker

Denver base here we come?

Flyby1206

This is the year for Farnborough. And that FLL 190 will be announced this year as well. Seriously.

Bluedriver

I doubt executives would where lanyards. I think you made this up...

The701Express

With all the talk about imminent explosive growth next year, I figured I'd do a little math in public to see what certain growth scenarios would look like in terms of total seat growth by the end of 2017.

I realize total seats in the fleet isn't the same as ASM growth, but I figure it's close enough for the internet.

To keep this simple I made a few assumptions:

• I decided to measure growth in number of seats rather than aircraft numbers or ASMs.
• Fleet of 225 aircraft (130 A320, 16 A321 LD [mint], 19 A321 HD, and 60 E190) by the end of 2016
• A321 HD all upgauged to 200 seat configuration by the end of 2016
• 7 A320s per month converted to new 162 seat configuration each month starting January 2017
• 7 fewer A320s will be flying throughout the year as a result

I apologize ahead of time for the formatting, the underscores were the only way I could figure out to make the spacing work.

Here's a snapshot of the fleet and total seat numbers at the end of 2016:
Fleet Seats Fleet Size Total Seats
E190_________100______60_______6,000
A320 ________150______130______19,500
A320 Refresh__162______0________0
A321 - HD____200______19_______3,800
A321 - Mint___159______16_______2,544
Total__________________25______31,844

If 10 mint A321s are added:
Fleet ________Seats ___Fleet Size___Total Seats
E190 ________100______60________6,000
A320 ________150______46________6,900
A320 - HD ____162______77_______12,474
A321 - HD ____200______19_______3,800
A321 - Mint____159______26_______4,134________Growth
Total__________________228______33,308_________4.6 %


If 10 mint A321s and 10 A320s are added:
Fleet ________Seats ___Fleet Size___Total Seats
E190 ________100______60________6,000
A320 ________150______46________6,900
A320 - HD ____162______87_______14,094
A321 - HD ____200______19_______3,800
A321 - Mint____159______26_______4,134 ________Growth
Total__________________238______34,928__________9. 7%

If 10 mint A321s, 10 A321 HDs are added:
Fleet ________Seats ___Fleet Size___Total Seats
E190 ________100______60________6,000
A320 ________150______46________6,900
A320 - HD ____162______77_______12,474
A321 - HD ____200______29_______5,800
A321 - Mint____159______26_______4,134 ________Growth
Total__________________238______35,308__________10 .9%

If 10 mint A321s, 10 A321 HDs, and 7 A320s are added:
Fleet ________Seats ___Fleet Size___Total Seats
E190 ________100______60________6,000
A320 ________150______46________6,900
A320 - HD ____162______84_______13,608
A321 - HD ____200______29_______5,800
A321 - Mint____159______26_______4,134 ________Growth
Total__________________245______36,442__________14 .4%

With growth around the 8-9% range this year, adding a few more deliveries in 2017 doesn't seem out of the question.

It will be interesting to see how JetBlue walks the fine line between taking advantage of a growth opportunity, while appeasing Wall St's demands for PRASM growth.

IH8ROADS

This whole Frontier spy gate has me wondering. Heard rumors of Spirit and Allegiant, Southworst is too big. JB doesn't really have any over lap with Frontier, and common fleet. Frontier does little Caribbean flying and JB does little in our "flyover" country. Wall Street would love to see us feed our focus city's to connect pax to the islands. It wouldn't surprised me.

Look at frontiers route map, to add that to JB would put a smile on my face.

GuardBummer

Me too. The commute from the midwest to any JB base is dreadful.

rvr1800

While I do really like this rumor, if there were merger talks wouldn't they be meeting with Indigo Partners? I imagine their offices aren't at Frontier headquarters.

Barley

Correct. Assuming talks were happening they'd be meeting with Indigo at their offices in Phoenix, AZ. They certainly aren't going to be roaming around 7001 Tower Rd wearing JetBlue lanyards.