Pilot shortage... Again!
10-03-2011, 02:13 PM
#221
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2010
Posts: 26
How could anyone even consider this proffesion anymore unless you know someone on the inside. Makes me want to go to some of the other areas of the forum and just go off about the stupidity of this industry and some of the people in it. But I will be good and not do that. Just makes me wonder how people who are so book smart can't see the big picture that tells anyone with even modest intelligence like me to stay the HELL out of the airline industry.
10-03-2011, 06:01 PM
#222
Eats shoots and leaves...
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: Didactic Synthetic Aviation Experience Provider
Posts: 849
Originally Posted by skidoomike
How could anyone even consider this proffesion anymore unless you know someone on the inside.
10-05-2011, 10:21 AM
#223
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: A330B
Posts: 210
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
Boeing has projected massive aviation growth over the next 30 years however I don't think so. Once the world economy gets traction again the price of oil will begin to climb.
I think we have already seen the heyday of human air travel. The peak was when it cost only $125 to transit the continent for a weekend with friends. Since then the bubble has burst and the airlines have tried to keep up by cutting wages and increasing fees. The legacy airlines are combining and contracting. We pilots haven't noticed because the downward trend has been explained away by the recession and age 65 deal.
There might be a bit of an upturn for a while after things get better in the economy but I think the projections of a global explosion is off by a large degree. Pilots are in a very vulnerable and exposed position. They have a tenuous grip on the future and shrinking incomes to use in preparation for the changes to come. In addition our skills do not hold much value in the outside job market.
I don't think we have to worry about a plot shortage.
Skyhigh
I think we have already seen the heyday of human air travel. The peak was when it cost only $125 to transit the continent for a weekend with friends. Since then the bubble has burst and the airlines have tried to keep up by cutting wages and increasing fees. The legacy airlines are combining and contracting. We pilots haven't noticed because the downward trend has been explained away by the recession and age 65 deal.
There might be a bit of an upturn for a while after things get better in the economy but I think the projections of a global explosion is off by a large degree. Pilots are in a very vulnerable and exposed position. They have a tenuous grip on the future and shrinking incomes to use in preparation for the changes to come. In addition our skills do not hold much value in the outside job market.
I don't think we have to worry about a plot shortage.
Skyhigh
My son is turning 16, an excellent student and motivated to fly. If he enlists in my old Guard unit while in college, finishes his degree and is accepted to UPT, he ought to hit all the buttons at the right time. He may not choose to do so, but being a 26 year old military pilot with several thousand heavy hours he could enter the career at the best time since around 1965.
10-05-2011, 11:37 AM
#224
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Planes to fly
Originally Posted by Kingbird87
I actually believe the future is very positive for the young motivated person entering the career. In ten years my peer group will be pouring out of the cockpits in unprecedented numbers, consolidation will have leveled the playing field and opportunities will be great for the thousands that hit the "sweet spot".
My son is turning 16, an excellent student and motivated to fly. If he enlists in my old Guard unit while in college, finishes his degree and is accepted to UPT, he ought to hit all the buttons at the right time. He may not choose to do so, but being a 26 year old military pilot with several thousand heavy hours he could enter the career at the best time since around 1965.
My son is turning 16, an excellent student and motivated to fly. If he enlists in my old Guard unit while in college, finishes his degree and is accepted to UPT, he ought to hit all the buttons at the right time. He may not choose to do so, but being a 26 year old military pilot with several thousand heavy hours he could enter the career at the best time since around 1965.
I am sure that there will be some planes around to fly in the future. To me it is not a question of getting a job as much as the chances of getting a good job. Even now a new hire at UAL can expect to average just slightly better than a mailman over their first five years as an FO. How is that supposed to support a family, pay off school loans and to compensate a pilot for the prior years of sacrifice and effort?
Barry Schiff wrote a good article a few years ago regarding his attitude regarding the future of an airline pilots career. In that article he explained his own sons hardships in trying to follow his path and how he does not recommend it anymore.
Ten years from now is a long time. Project what the last 30 years has done to our profession over that time into the future and it does not seem all that great. I am a third generation pilot with a 15 year old at home and I am not trying to promote aviation at all.
Skyhigh
10-05-2011, 11:39 AM
#225
Self Employed.
Joined APC: May 2005
Position: Corporate Pilot
Posts: 7,119
Barry Schiff article again.
The glory days are over
BY BARRY SCHIFF (From AOPA Pilot, June 2006.)
Barry Schiff retired from TWA in 1998 after a 34-year career with the airline.
I have been agonizing over the topic of this column for a few years, not knowing if I should publicly air my personal thoughts. Not to do so, I finally concluded, would be intellectually dishonest. So at the risk of attracting flak, here goes.
I was hired as a pilot by Trans World Airlines in 1964. This was during the glamour years that began after World War II. Airline salaries were rising, working conditions improved with every contract renewal, and airline pilots earned approval and respect from every quarter. On international flights, airline pilots were treated like royalty.
No one working for Pan American World Airways or TWA during this period could possibly have anticipated the demise of their airlines. These were cultural icons of the twentieth century. At one time, TWA's logo was the second most recognizable in the world (Coca-Cola's was the first).
The death knell for this era sounded on October 24, 1978, when President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act. The merits and demerits of deregulation aside, the long-term result for pilots was etched in stone. There would be an erosion of wages, working conditions, pensions, and job security.
Things got worse after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Because of the need for additional security, airline pilots are locked in their cockpits behind bulletproof doors and suffer the indignity of coordinating trips to the lavatory with flight attendants.
The glory years are gone.
I could not have been prouder when my son Brian was hired by TWA in 1989. Although conditions had declined since the airlines were deregulated, being an airline pilot was still a great job. He upgraded to captain on the Boeing 727 11 years later. Although thrilled to be in the left seat of a jetliner for a major carrier, he worked harder and earned a smaller salary than I did many years previously.
TWA was assimilated by American Airlines in 2001. During the next two years Brian went from left seat to right seat to the street. He had been furloughed and eventually found a job flying Learjets for a Part 135 operator. He now flies as captain of a Canadair Regional Jet for a commuter carrier.
Like thousands of others who have been furloughed from the majors, he has no idea when he will be recalled. Considering that American is reducing its need for pilots by contractual increases in pilot productivity and outsourcing many of its shorter, thinner routes to commuter carriers, it could be many years before Brian again sees an American Airlines' flight deck. Another of my sons, Paul, began to satisfy his desire to become an airline pilot in 2000 when he was hired by Trans States Airline, a company that operated TWExpress, US Airways Express, and AmericanConnection. Paul bounced between all three and discovered after 9/11 that he was not making headway in accruing seniority.
After four domicile changes, he opted to leave Trans States and obtain a more promising position with United Express. He worked there for three years, during which he had as many changes in domicile, and discovered that the most he had earned after six years as a commuter pilot was less than $30,000 per year. He again foresaw little potential for a career like I had and with great mental anguish opted to change professions.
Paul recently started a pet-supply company, gets to spend every night in his own bed, and has an opportunity to develop a social life. As an airline pilot gone from home 21 days a month, he had little opportunity to meet someone with whom he might like to share a future. When he did meet someone, he had neither the time nor the money for dating.
Paul says, "It is relatively easy to get a job with a commuter carrier, but not because these carriers are losing pilots to the majors; they are not. The attrition rate at the regional level is high because so many pilots reach their limits of endurance and quit. They find it too difficult to live on starvation wages [especially those with families]. There usually was nothing left in my wallet after shelling out for commuting and crash-pad expenses."
Although these are anecdotal experiences, my frank and personal discussions with numerous other airline pilots corroborate my feelings about the state of the airline industry. I can no longer encourage aspiring airline pilots without first ensuring that they understand the treacherous and daunting journeys typically required to reach for such lofty goals.
Do not misunderstand. Coping with the challenges of weather, communing with nature in a way that only pilots can appreciate, and maneuvering a sophisticated aircraft from one place on Earth to another remains a stimulating and gratifying endeavor (although I think it was more fun with less automation). It is the price one must pay to get there that is so discouraging.
I frequently am asked for advice about becoming an airline pilot. The best advice I can offer those determined to endure the rigorous hardships often required is to simultaneously develop a sideline vocation that can be used in case of emergency. A pilot should never get into a position that is totally dependent on income from an airline.
Does the end justify the means? Does becoming a captain for a major airline justify all that must be endured to get there? Perhaps, but surviving long enough to get there is the problem.
BY BARRY SCHIFF (From AOPA Pilot, June 2006.)
Barry Schiff retired from TWA in 1998 after a 34-year career with the airline.
I have been agonizing over the topic of this column for a few years, not knowing if I should publicly air my personal thoughts. Not to do so, I finally concluded, would be intellectually dishonest. So at the risk of attracting flak, here goes.
I was hired as a pilot by Trans World Airlines in 1964. This was during the glamour years that began after World War II. Airline salaries were rising, working conditions improved with every contract renewal, and airline pilots earned approval and respect from every quarter. On international flights, airline pilots were treated like royalty.
No one working for Pan American World Airways or TWA during this period could possibly have anticipated the demise of their airlines. These were cultural icons of the twentieth century. At one time, TWA's logo was the second most recognizable in the world (Coca-Cola's was the first).
The death knell for this era sounded on October 24, 1978, when President Jimmy Carter signed the Airline Deregulation Act. The merits and demerits of deregulation aside, the long-term result for pilots was etched in stone. There would be an erosion of wages, working conditions, pensions, and job security.
Things got worse after the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Because of the need for additional security, airline pilots are locked in their cockpits behind bulletproof doors and suffer the indignity of coordinating trips to the lavatory with flight attendants.
The glory years are gone.
I could not have been prouder when my son Brian was hired by TWA in 1989. Although conditions had declined since the airlines were deregulated, being an airline pilot was still a great job. He upgraded to captain on the Boeing 727 11 years later. Although thrilled to be in the left seat of a jetliner for a major carrier, he worked harder and earned a smaller salary than I did many years previously.
TWA was assimilated by American Airlines in 2001. During the next two years Brian went from left seat to right seat to the street. He had been furloughed and eventually found a job flying Learjets for a Part 135 operator. He now flies as captain of a Canadair Regional Jet for a commuter carrier.
Like thousands of others who have been furloughed from the majors, he has no idea when he will be recalled. Considering that American is reducing its need for pilots by contractual increases in pilot productivity and outsourcing many of its shorter, thinner routes to commuter carriers, it could be many years before Brian again sees an American Airlines' flight deck. Another of my sons, Paul, began to satisfy his desire to become an airline pilot in 2000 when he was hired by Trans States Airline, a company that operated TWExpress, US Airways Express, and AmericanConnection. Paul bounced between all three and discovered after 9/11 that he was not making headway in accruing seniority.
After four domicile changes, he opted to leave Trans States and obtain a more promising position with United Express. He worked there for three years, during which he had as many changes in domicile, and discovered that the most he had earned after six years as a commuter pilot was less than $30,000 per year. He again foresaw little potential for a career like I had and with great mental anguish opted to change professions.
Paul recently started a pet-supply company, gets to spend every night in his own bed, and has an opportunity to develop a social life. As an airline pilot gone from home 21 days a month, he had little opportunity to meet someone with whom he might like to share a future. When he did meet someone, he had neither the time nor the money for dating.
Paul says, "It is relatively easy to get a job with a commuter carrier, but not because these carriers are losing pilots to the majors; they are not. The attrition rate at the regional level is high because so many pilots reach their limits of endurance and quit. They find it too difficult to live on starvation wages [especially those with families]. There usually was nothing left in my wallet after shelling out for commuting and crash-pad expenses."
Although these are anecdotal experiences, my frank and personal discussions with numerous other airline pilots corroborate my feelings about the state of the airline industry. I can no longer encourage aspiring airline pilots without first ensuring that they understand the treacherous and daunting journeys typically required to reach for such lofty goals.
Do not misunderstand. Coping with the challenges of weather, communing with nature in a way that only pilots can appreciate, and maneuvering a sophisticated aircraft from one place on Earth to another remains a stimulating and gratifying endeavor (although I think it was more fun with less automation). It is the price one must pay to get there that is so discouraging.
I frequently am asked for advice about becoming an airline pilot. The best advice I can offer those determined to endure the rigorous hardships often required is to simultaneously develop a sideline vocation that can be used in case of emergency. A pilot should never get into a position that is totally dependent on income from an airline.
Does the end justify the means? Does becoming a captain for a major airline justify all that must be endured to get there? Perhaps, but surviving long enough to get there is the problem.
10-05-2011, 04:55 PM
#226
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: A330B
Posts: 210
[QUOTE=SkyHigh;1065216]Kingbird87,
I am sure that there will be some planes around to fly in the future. To me it is not a question of getting a job as much as the chances of getting a good job. Even now a new hire at UAL can expect to average just slightly better than a mailman over their first five years as an FO. How is that supposed to support a family, pay off school loans and to compensate a pilot for the prior years of sacrifice and effort?
What does a mailman have to do with what I just said?, and if you can't cut five years of sacrifice, then there are few careers that you will be successful at. You seem to delight in rationalizing your failure to achieve your goals with predictions of gloom and doom. I understand why people leave the career, and there are a lot of valid reasons, focusing on an objective results in hitting your target. Work is not an objective, and success is a destination where the objective becomes clear. If you left the career because you really aspired to be a letter carrier, and dabble in real estate, congratulations SkyHigh, you have reached your goal.
I am sure that there will be some planes around to fly in the future. To me it is not a question of getting a job as much as the chances of getting a good job. Even now a new hire at UAL can expect to average just slightly better than a mailman over their first five years as an FO. How is that supposed to support a family, pay off school loans and to compensate a pilot for the prior years of sacrifice and effort?
What does a mailman have to do with what I just said?, and if you can't cut five years of sacrifice, then there are few careers that you will be successful at. You seem to delight in rationalizing your failure to achieve your goals with predictions of gloom and doom. I understand why people leave the career, and there are a lot of valid reasons, focusing on an objective results in hitting your target. Work is not an objective, and success is a destination where the objective becomes clear. If you left the career because you really aspired to be a letter carrier, and dabble in real estate, congratulations SkyHigh, you have reached your goal.
10-05-2011, 05:37 PM
#227
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: FAA 'Flight Check'
Posts: 13,837
Originally Posted by SkyHigh
Kingbird87,
I am sure that there will be some planes around to fly in the future. To me it is not a question of getting a job as much as the chances of getting a good job. Even now a new hire at UAL can expect to average just slightly better than a mailman over their first five years as an FO. How is that supposed to support a family, pay off school loans and to compensate a pilot for the prior years of sacrifice and effort?
What does a mailman have to do with what I just said?, and if you can't cut five years of sacrifice, then there are few careers that you will be successful at. You seem to delight in rationalizing your failure to achieve your goals with predictions of gloom and doom. I understand why people leave the career, and there are a lot of valid reasons, focusing on an objective results in hitting your target. Work is not an objective, and success is a destination where the objective becomes clear. If you left the career because you really aspired to be a letter carrier, and dabble in real estate, congratulations SkyHigh, you have reached your goal.
I am sure that there will be some planes around to fly in the future. To me it is not a question of getting a job as much as the chances of getting a good job. Even now a new hire at UAL can expect to average just slightly better than a mailman over their first five years as an FO. How is that supposed to support a family, pay off school loans and to compensate a pilot for the prior years of sacrifice and effort?
What does a mailman have to do with what I just said?, and if you can't cut five years of sacrifice, then there are few careers that you will be successful at. You seem to delight in rationalizing your failure to achieve your goals with predictions of gloom and doom. I understand why people leave the career, and there are a lot of valid reasons, focusing on an objective results in hitting your target. Work is not an objective, and success is a destination where the objective becomes clear. If you left the career because you really aspired to be a letter carrier, and dabble in real estate, congratulations SkyHigh, you have reached your goal.
and likes to keep track of his 'converts'.Don't drink the kool-aide!
USMCFLYR
10-05-2011, 06:31 PM
#228
Eats shoots and leaves...
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: Didactic Synthetic Aviation Experience Provider
Posts: 849
Originally Posted by Kingbird87
What does a mailman have to do with what I just said?, and if you can't cut five years of sacrifice, then there are few careers that you will be successful at. You seem to delight in rationalizing your failure to achieve your goals with predictions of gloom and doom. I understand why people leave the career, and there are a lot of valid reasons, focusing on an objective results in hitting your target. Work is not an objective, and success is a destination where the objective becomes clear. If you left the career because you really aspired to be a letter carrier, and dabble in real estate, congratulations SkyHigh, you have reached your goal.
It's not a question of five years of sacrifice - been there done that, didn't mind paying the price. The issue is if five years leads to another five years, followed by another five years, and another five years, and so on. Except for a fortunate few, is there really any future in this industry? Sure you might hit the jackpot and hire on with a winning carrier when you're 28 - or you'll bounce from one place to another searching for that place where you can hopefully upgrade in less than ten years and try and earn something for the future rather than paying last month's bills. My kids deserve better than I am able to give them, thanks to the corner I'm painted into at this time.
It's easy to claim it's just sour grapes for a naysayer. As an analogy [actual events tonight], I bought a bottle of wine this evening for a small gathering. I paid almost twice as much for that bottle as I did for one just a couple of days ago, but it was what I could locate at the time. The bottle of a couple days ago was quite pleasant, tonight's was simply awful. Am I the bad guy for admitting tonight's bottle was putrid rather than lavishing false superlatives upon it?
Last edited by bcrosier; 10-05-2011 at 06:44 PM. Reason: Because I damn well wanted to...
10-05-2011, 07:22 PM
#229
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: FAA 'Flight Check'
Posts: 13,837
Originally Posted by bcrosier
The bottle of a couple days ago was quite pleasant, tonight's was simply awful. Am I the bad guy for admitting tonight's bottle was putrid rather than lavishing false superlatives upon it?
You can admit that one bottle of wine is good and another might be bad.
I'm willing to bet that you wouldn't try to tell everybody which bottle of wine is good or bad, but let them discover it for themselves, and in the process not call the people who like the bottle of wine that you didn't names, suggest that they can't care for their families, and make innuendoes that they only got the good bottle of wine because their family owns the winery. I think that takes warning others about a bottle of wine that you might not like a little to the extreme side
USMCFLYR
10-05-2011, 08:18 PM
#230
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: A330B
Posts: 210
bcrosier,
You are right in your analysis of how it can all go very wrong, but that doesn't mean it can't go very right as in any career choice. I think the key is not to incur debt to attain your goal and to prepare with an education that delivers course corrections. The aviation degree is a non-starter and incurring huge debts in the process starts one in servitude. In my son's case I described him as an excellent student, with a desire to explore aviation as a potential. Because I retired from the Air National Guard, we know that option is achievable, though he will have to earn the UPT slot on his own merit. With academic scholarships and GI bill he can graduate debt free and hopefully earn that slot. If not, well he still has valuable work experience and a degree to build on. If he does get one, he flies heavies four or five years and is in position to network the unit's members to preferential hiring. He does have a dad that will have had 36 years with a major and a mom that worked many years ago for FedEx. Not a typical applicant, but the key is to focus on the objective, and to stack the odds. Too many people have believed the siren song that flight time and an aviation degree equates to major airline job. For many it has worked, for many more it hasn't. Excellence is excellence, it can't be taken away, it presents opportunity. Opportunity is risk, but in a few years with dramatic retirements in our career, risk can be managed. At no time in my lifetime will there have ever been such opportunity as is coming in a few years.
You are right in your analysis of how it can all go very wrong, but that doesn't mean it can't go very right as in any career choice. I think the key is not to incur debt to attain your goal and to prepare with an education that delivers course corrections. The aviation degree is a non-starter and incurring huge debts in the process starts one in servitude. In my son's case I described him as an excellent student, with a desire to explore aviation as a potential. Because I retired from the Air National Guard, we know that option is achievable, though he will have to earn the UPT slot on his own merit. With academic scholarships and GI bill he can graduate debt free and hopefully earn that slot. If not, well he still has valuable work experience and a degree to build on. If he does get one, he flies heavies four or five years and is in position to network the unit's members to preferential hiring. He does have a dad that will have had 36 years with a major and a mom that worked many years ago for FedEx. Not a typical applicant, but the key is to focus on the objective, and to stack the odds. Too many people have believed the siren song that flight time and an aviation degree equates to major airline job. For many it has worked, for many more it hasn't. Excellence is excellence, it can't be taken away, it presents opportunity. Opportunity is risk, but in a few years with dramatic retirements in our career, risk can be managed. At no time in my lifetime will there have ever been such opportunity as is coming in a few years.
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