In the ‘right now snapshot’ when in the past has the industry ever looked like it does right now?

That’s not predicting any airline’s future is guaranteed but an evaluation of the relative, and probable risk, has to include how much the industry has changed from 5-10 yrs ago.

The industry, and life, require risk assessment and prudence. But a number at a Big 3 airline right now is probably the safest bet in the history of the airline business.

I would agree with that. The right now snapshot might be largely different in 5 years. (Ask me how I know).
Having said that. I would take the earliest class date offered unless a home base option is available at one over the other. Even then I would still grab the first brass ring and jump ship if the home base airline offered. Just my opinion.

Given the current climate, I still think AA is a long term player as they have been. DAL as well.

I said I wasn't saying anything about AA's prospects, just that the phrase "they've been around a really long time" is meaningless when it comes to an airline's success. Plenty of "really long time" airlines aren't around anymore.


I get it, you're touchy about AA... but I only talked about using that phrase lightly like that, not AA's prospects in and of itself. You should have seen enough of that in 30+ years.

I have. Not touchy about AA. Even worked there and left for what I thought was a better option for me. My point is in the current climate, I personally wouldn’t pass up AA given no other option as I think their long term prospects as good as any of the big 3. If both choices are on the table, pick the one with a home base option. I will stick with my assertion that AA is a long term player as are the other two.

Probably about as much as 30+ year TWA, Pan Am, and Eastern pilots before their worlds came to a screeching halt. Not flinging mud, just my interpretation of what is likely a fact most of us don't want to acknowledge.

Those companies had to deal with going from complete regulation to the free market.
If the ban is ever lifted on cabotage, you will see a similar seismic shift in the pilot world that happened in the early 80's.
The only thing that is completely predictable is unpredictability.
Good luck to us all, and support ALPA PAC.

Pan Am, Twa, Eastern and others were victims of deregulation (and the introduction of LCCs) At the time they were dying AA was going to a 500 plane fleet (heavily domestic) and hiring 120 pilots/month. AA was there then...they adapted and survived where some didn’t. I suspect they have as good a chance of being around in the future as UAL, DAL.

American Airlines Is Still Wasting Investors' Moneyhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-airlines-still-wasting-investors-010500477.html

So much for adapting!

You're making my point for me. None of those guys saw deregulation and the following carnage coming. Maybe the next 50 years will be nothing but roses but more than likely something will happen to make all the know-it-alls scratch their heads and say WTF was THAT?

You could well be right. I guess if any of us could predict those kind of thing we should probably be doing something other than flying airplanes. I will still maintain that a job with AA is no less a risk than a job with UA or DL. Time will tell and I suppose this industry will be no less a rollercoaster than it has been. Given the OP question...again for me it would come down to a home base option if one is available.