I was thinking of 50% total seniority among the 737/320 fleets. How long would it take to hit that point at a legacy?

 

Actually that was my opinion after taking a history class on the airline industry. Im open to being wrong, but it was an observation. In downturns bankrupt airlines gut pilot contracts calling them unsustainable. Think how pensions disappeared and how long it took to get back to where we are, yet the top level walk away with millions. Now this has nothing to do with ULCC being better then Legacy, it was just an observation on history that seems volatile.

 

If you haven't read this Forbes article, you really should: https://www.forbes.com/sites/deandonovan/2019/12/03/ancillary-growth-makes-airlines-and-especially-ulccs-a-better-bet/

It offers some pretty good analysis on the financial difference between the legacies and the ULCCs

 

Don't forget who upper management is there to serve: Wallstreet. They work to keep the investors happy. It's all about the stock price. And they will do anything to keep it up. They will cut capacity in a heartbeat if they think they'll keep the stock price up when things turn ugly in the economy.

 

Doesn't look like it:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/trave...able/81035522/

 

If you study the history and the changes to the law it is very much the case.

Also worth noting that for airlines they have to file BK before they actually run out of cash... the FAA knows a broke airline will not meet safety requirements and will pull their cert at some level of low liquidity. An airline can make the case to the court that they have to file while still in black if the GS is headed for the red.

The big difference is that creditors have more control of the process now. But if RAH feels THEIR creditors would prefer the airline intact and making lease payments, it might feel comfortable that they will cooperate rather than force liquidation. But it's still uncertainty for the DIP.

And regionals are in a unique situation... they have long term contracts with both their creditors (plane lessors) and their customers. If costs increase (pilot costs in this case) they cannot just pass them on to the customers, or readily re-negotiate their leases. So in this case it's probably legit.

 

No, we are not.

 

Everyone is turning this into a dick measuring contest between ULCCs and Legacies...

The real answer to the question about will the pilot pool dry up is yes. Once growth slows at the ULCCs they’re going to need to do something to keep attracting/keeping talented pilots. Once the Spirit’s and Frontier’s reach their critical mass and upgrades start to stagnate then their contracts are going to have to offer pilots an incentive to come here over a legacy. Look at Southwest a few decades ago if you want to see how this will play out. If Spirit or Frontier start having their growth plans hindered by lack of pilots then it gives the pilots more leverage at the negotiating table and contracts will improve.



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If you think that way you’re part of the problem.

 

If we were on the same team then why do the major unions allow regional pilots to be treated so poorly as compared to the major pilots?


Groupthink is idiotic.