ULCC Model in the U.S.

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01-17-2020 | 04:58 PM

#91

WaterRooster

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyby1206

Will there come a point where ULCCs struggle to attract enough new pilots and that rapid growth can't be sustained? Legacies offer job security, upgrades, and seniority in spades. Why go to a ULCC instead of a legacy?

Because they are close to the same thing as a Legacy? Upgrades and seniority are better if not the same. Mid level pay is short, but top end and 401k are about the same. No profit sharing. They aren’t far off and if you are cool flying narrow body, No, I don’t think they will have a problem.

01-17-2020 | 05:07 PM

#92

Cicada

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyby1206

Maybe the Legacy carriers will get smart and hire the ULCC captains who have applied. This would create two training events. It's a way to swat back.

01-17-2020 | 05:17 PM

#93

BKbigfish

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Cicada

Maybe the Legacy carriers will get smart and hire the ULCC captains who have applied. This would create two training events. It's a way to swat back.

I would imagine the percentage of ULCC captains that have their apps out anywhere is incredibly low.

01-17-2020 | 05:19 PM

#94

303flyboy

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From: Happy

I don’t even know one fo post new contract who does.. is this a joke ? How long at a legacy till you hit 50% on the list ? Have you ran the numbers for ULCC Captains ?
270/hr at the end of the contract + 15% and everything paid at 125% over 82 hours just isn’t good enough? Then I absolutely agree move on.

01-17-2020 | 05:46 PM

#95

BKbigfish

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NK had a total of 5 captains leave for other airlines last year. That barely registers. ULCC’s (NK/F9) won’t have a problem hiring if the growth continues as projected and upgrade times stay at 3 years or less. I think you’ll see some churn on the bottom of the list as guys that are 2 or less years in leave for one of the big 3 or fedex/ups but that’s about it. Currently even FO attrition is incredibly low (less than 20 total in 2019) but you may see that increase as the upgrade times at the legacies drop.

01-17-2020 | 05:50 PM

#96

303flyboy

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From: Happy

That seems very accurate and fair.

01-17-2020 | 06:42 PM

#97

SFA320

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Flyby1206

I’m 50% COMPANY seniority after 3.5 years at F9. Where in spades can that be beat at any legacy?

I don’t think finding pilots at F9 or NK will ever be a problem. Also, I don’t think 99% of captains would be willing to give up 170k, likely more, in lost wages. As well as losing seniority to go fly for a legacy, even if they did some sort of selective hiring. Unless, the next round of legacy contracts bring 30-40% pay raises.

01-17-2020 | 07:15 PM

#98

Omniscient

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Voski

I suspect AA is most at risk to the ULCC model. It seems like Spirit and Frontier are gaining ground in many AA hubs; 2020+ is going to be interesting as more planes are added, more routes are added to the network, and more bases are opened.

No doubt. Let’s end this AA love fest, simply because they are a Legacy carrier.

Dead last in the ratings, tons of debt, and going nowhere fast.

American best offering is “we have lots of retirements”.

01-17-2020 | 08:01 PM

#99

avi8er

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Cujo665

And 10 years ago they controlled 97%....
Meanwhile both Spirit and Frontier are adding hundreds of new planes for growth. Those 4 will be at 50% soon if they don’t smarten up.

very unlikely. Last year Spirit have 2.3% and Frontier has 1.5 of the marketed flights.

01-17-2020 | 09:24 PM

#100

SSlow

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From: baller, shot caller

Quote:

Originally Posted by Omniscient

But but...I've got three failed checkrides, no degree, and a DUI, so gimme dat flow to mainline for my back pocket, which is really my primary plan because I got no other options outside of the regionals.