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When Will It Be "Too Late" To Ride The Wave

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When Will It Be "Too Late" To Ride The Wave

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Old 02-10-2020, 10:15 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by popcopy View Post
If you want the wave that’ll push you all the way to the beach, that wave came in 2018/2019.



A wave that’ll push you to ankle deep surf, that’s NOW.



Anything after 2023/2024 and you might as well just go snorkeling below the waves.


Can you expound on this?


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Old 02-10-2020, 10:34 AM
  #32  
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Unlike times past when a generational replacement was primarily with similar age (young) pilots....The age spread among pilots joining the majors is going to provide even the last one aboard some movement.

Even the long term plug at a major or ulcc has a considerably bright economic earnings forecast. The qol could be better....but it would still be a job that puts one near the top of wage earners. And in most cases provide genuine and secure retirement savings growth.
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Old 02-10-2020, 04:22 PM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by badflaps View Post
As one of the '60's beardless new hires, it is not all Moon Pies. Retired now, knockin' down $2334. a month from the PBGC. Didn't see that coming.
The game requires a very large ante, so the trick is to join it early enough, and stay long enough, that you are playing with the House’s money.
It stops working if you go bust.......or the House goes bust. 😩
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Old 02-11-2020, 12:55 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by tomgoodman View Post
The game requires a very large ante, so the trick is to join it early enough, and stay long enough, that you are playing with the House’s money.
It stops working if you go bust.......or the House goes bust. 😩
I never would have made it on a riverboat..........
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Old 02-11-2020, 05:59 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
Nonsense. Case mortality with decent supportive care is less than 2%. The annual increase in worldwide population is 1.2%. Even if everyone in the world got it and we had no better treatment for it than we do now - HORRIBLE AS THAT WOULD BE - we would be back to status quo ante within two years. And the majors would still be retiring pilots at near record numbers.

It doesn’t have to be deadly to be disruptive to the economy. If factories and plants have to close due to quarantines or sick workers that will disrupt supply chains. Those workers aren’t pulling in paychecks so they, in turn, spend less.
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Old 02-11-2020, 06:13 AM
  #36  
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Old 02-11-2020, 06:25 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by BlueMoon View Post
It doesn’t have to be deadly to be disruptive to the economy. If factories and plants have to close due to quarantines or sick workers that will disrupt supply chains. Those workers aren’t pulling in paychecks so they, in turn, spend less.
I get the sense that this time, in light of the lessons learned with SARs, governments will try to balance safety and the economy. An economic collapse is also bad for safety and public health, it's just not as immediate and obvious as the media reporting on an epidemic. Both Trump and Xi have (existential) motivation to not kill the global economy.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:17 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by popcopy View Post
If you want the wave that’ll push you all the way to the beach, that wave came in 2018/2019.

A wave that’ll push you to ankle deep surf, that’s NOW.

Anything after 2023/2024 and you might as well just go snorkeling below the waves.
There should be a secondary and smaller wave after 2025, just not at the Legacies. Places like Southwest and some of the other Majors that currently have a younger pilot group. Subject to change with any merger activity.
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:26 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by TiredSoul View Post
Hell yes!!!
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Old 02-11-2020, 10:53 AM
  #40  
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Wow Tired Soul, that’s low quality stuff. Swift doesn’t pay much huh?
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