Mystery Surronds FAA Halt to West Coast flts
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#32
Another poorly understood topic (and I am in no way a expert at any of this). My understanding is that radio activity of the fallout degrades by a significant amount shortly after the nuclear event. Within a few days it is safe to leave an area of contamination and not risk some of the worst side effects. The danger of radiation from fallout also decreases rapidly with time due in large part to the exponential decay of the individual radionuclides. This is known as the seven-ten rule. Cresson H. Kearny who was a well-known researcher on the topic said that for the first few days after the explosion, the radiation dose rate is reduced by a factor of ten for every seven-fold increase in the number of hours since the explosion. Supposedly "it takes about seven times as long for the dose rate to decay from 1000 roentgens per hour (1000 R/hr) to 10 R/hr (48 hours) as to decay from 1000 R/hr to 100 R/hr (7 hours)."
Fallout (contamination) is material, fine particles in this case, which is radioactive in and of itself. Some of that comes from the bomb material itself (a couple hundred kg), but the vast majority would be from dirt at the impact site, which gets massively neutron irradiated and activated by detonation. And then thrown up in the mushroom cloud and distributed via prevailing winds.
The amount of fallout depends on airburst vs. groundburst. A groundburst will make a lot more. The type of soil (or other material) can make a difference, as different elements produce different isotopes with different properties when irradiated.
Typically the fallout has fairly short half-lives, so the direct radiation risk from say having fallout on your skin and being irradiated is minimal after about a month.
The longer-term danger however is from either ingesting or inhaling fallout... once it gets inside you it will deliver radiation directly to your tissue, potentially long-term for years. Potassium iodide tablets (popular and readily available during the cold war) were intended to be taken to prevent ingested radioactive iodine from making itself at home in your tissues.
The idea behind the shelter in place for a few days after a nuclear event make the fallout survivable. It's the people out and exposed during the event or the people who try to evac shortly after the event who are at the greatest risk. Staying put in a sheltered area for a few days to as much as a week will greatly increase survivability. While it seems ridiculous to survive a nuclear bomb using plastic sheeting on windows and doors with duct tape there is science behind it.
- Flash: Near instantaneous, very serious flashburns. If you're looking at it, you're blind (permanently). Only way to avoid is luck, or duck/cover/shelter if you have advance notice.
- Direct radiation: From detonation, the fireball/mushroom cloud will emit a lot of direct radiation for several minutes at least. While almost anything will protect you from the flash, you need heavier materials to protect against the radiation. Concrete, or lots of dirt or water. Deep end of a pool would work, especially if the side of the pool is towards the blast.
- Blast: you have a few seconds to maybe tens of seconds to hide from the blast behind or under strong structural materials. Avoid windows, they will make shrapnel.
- Fallout: Initially avoid. If roads are clear and you have a working motorized vehicle you can probably outrun it (depending on wind speed). Airplane or adventure bike would be the best ride. Otherwise shelter in place and setup air filtration. If no help has arrived, wait 5-6 weeks (or as long as possible given supplies) before evacuating. Try to get out of the fallout pattern asap, then turn towards your destination. Try to consume only sealed food and water until you get to a known safe area.
Flash: Turn away, instantly duck and cover. When flash subsides seek shelter from radiation and blast if you can get to it within a few seconds, otherwise lay flat and cover your head. After blast, wait about five minutes for direct radiation to drop (longer if upwind), then either evacuate (if you can beat the fallout based on winds and available transport) or shelter in place.
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