That's not true.
The majors have been dropping regional service to smaller cities. Is this news to you?
If so, please read these articles:
https://www.businessinsider.com/amer...ll-list-2023-1
https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-...uts-us-cities/
https://thepointsguy.com/news/united...s-drop-cities/

Regionals are having significant problems recruiting new pilots even with higher pay and bonuses.
Now the ULCCs are experiencing the same difficulties with holding onto pilots.

Transworld pointed out the upguaging that is taking place, further masking the pilot shortage.

Are you out of touch with the industry or just gaslighting as a hobby?

 

regionals are having trouble retaining captains, not recruiting new FOs. That’s why they’re backed up for months on new hire classes.

 

Its not news to me but the last 50 seat jet order was probably 2004. Most of what is happening was already going to happen because there are only 3 majors left and they each make 50B.

They are all scope chocked on large RJs, and there is no viable equipment for < large RJ

The small market was overdeveloped during a pilot surplus of the 90s and carried though post 9/11, so removing a surplus does not constitute a shortage.

All 3 majors have ordered hundreds of RJs over the last 10 years and none were props or 50 seaters.

They can easily restore those routes. The majors use RJs to supplement frequency on routes already served by them.

For example, RJs supplement CLT-ATL all they have to do is pull it off CLT-ATL and deploy it wherever they want, they don’t want to.

You are looking at a Covid pilot supply chain issue and rubber stamping shortage on top when you know full well the turboprop/50 seat market has been circling the drain since the big 3 merged.

There is 0 indication there was a ever a plan to replace 50 seat jets plane for plane upon them being retired after 20 plus years of service.

You are believing the narrative you want to.
American Airlines doesn’t serve Africa and now doesn’t serve DelRio Texas. You are trying to say one is a business decision and one is a shortage when they are both business decisions.

Regionals are not having any problems recruiting new pilots. They have a shortage of pilots with 1,000 121 to severe as CA, that is largely due to no one building time due to Covid.

 

This is about right.

I suppose the glaring error on the part of the majors was turboprops... they should have insisted on 50-seat prop jobs to replace the gas guzzling RJ's (yes the US majors can call the tune to which the mfgs dance). They'd still have a pilot shortage at this moment but that would mitigate over time as the mass retirement wave concludes. With a somewhat steady state retirement rate, and a little bit of due diligence and engagement in the training pipeline, the majors should be able to find pilots to fly small props at reasonable wages. Especially if the props are new design and aren't high workload and high skill like some of the equipment we flew back in the day.

At this point we might even see props return in hybrid or even electric form... that can probably work on short routes. Especially if it provides some greenie street cred for the airlines.

 

Here is an example. SEA - PSC (Pasco, WA). Growth, still excellent load factors.

Several years before Covid:

8 daily at 37 seat turboprops. = 296 seats

Today:

2 daily at 76 seat RJ = 152 seats
3 daily at 178 seat 737-900 = 534 seats
Total = 152+534 = 686 seats

Real upgauging. More seats, fewer pilots.

 

And some of those new FOs didn't have the minimums while going through training and subsequently have had to get the minimum hours before starting all over again.
Yes, definitely a CA problem hence all of the DEC ads.
However, that doesn't mean that there are plenty of new FOs out there; it just means the bottleneck is currently on the CA side.
Months backed up for classes isn't the norm and if a new FO's been waiting for that long, chances are that s/he's already flying for someone else before they get a call for class.

So how do you explain the steep decline in experience/resume quality at the majors for new hires? The shrinking pool size? Those don't scream shortage to you?
Lack of CAs at the regionals doesn't scream shortage to you?
If I were applying to a major today, I could have no college degree, multiple checkride failures and a DUI. A few years ago, resumes with any of those items went to the TBNT pile. How much lower can the minimum candidate quality get before you acknowledge that there's a pilot shortage?

 

APC experts or airline managers and industry consultants, who are the most credible? The credible voices are expressing concern about the availability of staffing.

 

Of course they have staffing problems, they forgot to say they purchased a plane that holds 90 people and put 76 seats on it and subcontracted it out to the lowest bidder.

The lowest bidder can’t find a PIC and their 1.4B quarterly profits can’t support having the full 90 seats and being flown in house.

Is this even reality?

Sounds absurd to even talk about “staffing” on planes that have arbitrary reduced capacity and are contracted out to a company every pilot knows isn’t a real career to begin with.

 

An article explaining the conflict:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ge-2023-08-22/

 

I find it interesting that United “570” pilots are leading the charge to get the age lifted 3 more years… guess working 40 years at United isn’t enough… and flying 30 years as Captains to boot. Did they not invest enough during these “lean” years. 😂