The pilot shortage is over:

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11-08-2025 | 02:20 PM

#591

60av8tor

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Joined: Jan 2011

Posts: 949

Likes: 58

Quote:

Originally Posted by at6d

I was hired at WN in 2015. I’m at 50%. Seniority projected for me at retirement in 2040 is 8%.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JulesWinfield

I am an early 2023 hire at AA. I am 78% and will hit 50% roughly sometime around 2031, but that is using current staffing. Maybe 2030 with some growth. I will retire around 14%.

Crazy how luck and timing is everything. UA ‘21 at 55%. Second career, so won’t get the longevity to truly take advantage of the timing, but the 20-somethings that got hired at that time… Golden ticket…

11-08-2025 | 02:30 PM

#592

rolo

On Reserve

Joined: Mar 2013

Posts: 144

Likes: 13

Is there particular significance to 80%? I’m at like 78% wondering if I crossed some kind of milestone or assumed furlough safety area

11-08-2025 | 02:30 PM

#593

CX500T

Joined: Nov 2017

Posts: 3,529

Likes: 697

Quote:

Originally Posted by 60av8tor

DL early 18.
52% now
Retire at around 17%
39 at hire.

11-08-2025 | 02:46 PM

#594

RippinClapBombs

Down goes Frazier

Joined: Mar 2023

Posts: 713

Likes: 187

From: AB FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cyio

That surprises me. I am a late '22 hire at WN and sitting at 79%. I would have thought I would be further behind, although I imagine things are going to accelerate quickly for you while slowing down for me due to less hiring.

It shouldn’t—SWA had unprecedented pilot attrition bailing for the Legacy’s after Covid. We’re not talking about pilots only on property for a few years either…

11-08-2025 | 02:59 PM

#595

METO Guido

Gets Weekends Off

Joined: Apr 2011

Posts: 3,517

Likes: 143

There shouldn’t ever be a shortage. Grads at Purdue, ER and equivalent are qualified to begin structured ab initial programs at Pt. 121 airlines. Aircraft systems and operating environment have evolved. They can do it. Seen it with me own peepers.

11-08-2025 | 03:23 PM

#596

JTwift

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Joined: Feb 2017

Posts: 1,631

Likes: 80

Quote:

Originally Posted by rolo

Is there particular significance to 80%? I’m at like 78% wondering if I crossed some kind of milestone or assumed furlough safety area

80% is the number where you should be above being furloughed. Of course, nothing is written in stone, but historically, an airline will furlough 20%. Anything less, and it just created churn with no real benefit to the company. Anything more, and it’s probably close to WW3 (metaphorically speaking).

11-08-2025 | 05:16 PM

#597

WHACKMASTER

Gets Weekends Off

Joined: Jun 2010

Posts: 7,578

Likes: 288

From: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CX500T

DL early 18.
52% now
Retire at around 17%
39 at hire.

Wow. That’s awesome. Aren’t you NYC ER A already?

11-08-2025 | 06:49 PM

#598

CX500T

Joined: Nov 2017

Posts: 3,529

Likes: 697

Quote:

Originally Posted by WHACKMASTER

Wow. That’s awesome. Aren’t you NYC ER A already?

Picked it up 2 years ago after 2 years as a 320A.

Was out on mil leave making 2/3 of my normal pre-covid 7ERB pay for most of covid so the bank account was thankfull for coming back to any A slot.

11-08-2025 | 10:38 PM

#599

sn00p

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Joined: Oct 2017

Posts: 315

Likes: 23

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blackhawk987

I’ve been saving a cigar for when I get to 80% on the UA seniority list and was searching around for some cocktail napkin math for when that might happen. That’s why I’m reading your comment now.

You called it, literally! The moment before the big AA machine stopped. I was at Envoy in Mar 24, and heard that AA wasn’t hiring until July. When July came…AA announced they weren’t hiring until ’25.

An AA March 2023 hire was still 89% in January 2025. The March 2024 hire was still 99% in January 2025. Sliceback should stop flying and start buying penny stocks and reading palms!

You should buy that cigar for most bizarre flex on APC of 25.

Congrats on your uber seniority /s

11-09-2025 | 05:03 AM

#600

WHACKMASTER

Gets Weekends Off

Joined: Jun 2010

Posts: 7,578

Likes: 288

From: DOWNGRADE COMPLETE: Thanks Gary. Thanks SWAPA.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CX500T

Picked it up 2 years ago after 2 years as a 320A.

Was out on mil leave making 2/3 of my normal pre-covid 7ERB pay for most of covid so the bank account was thankfull for coming back to any A slot.

How many more years until A330 A out of JFK?