Economic Impacts of Iran War
#1221
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,154
Likes: 192
Sounds like you’re sold on worst case. Our objectives meritless. But are they really? Deny a preeminent state sponsor of Sharia code ICBM/MIRV leverage. Ensure safe passage of vessels on a critical free trade route. Create precedent that nuke ambitions short of existing superpowers capability will inevitably face deterrence at a cost too high to bear. Big picture wise, I’m more than less encouraged, so far, this move CAN payout.
#1222
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,401
Likes: 473
Sounds like you’re sold on worst case. Our objectives meritless. But are they really? Deny a preeminent state sponsor of Sharia code ICBM/MIRV leverage. Ensure safe passage of vessels on a critical free trade route. Create precedent that nuke ambitions short of existing superpowers capability will inevitably face deterrence at a cost too high to bear. Big picture wise, I’m more than less encouraged, so far, this move CAN payout.
Best case scenario is we find a way to declare some kind of empty “victory”, pull back to the previous status quo (IF the IRGC even plays ball with that) while leaving an enormous mess we might be forced to revisit down the line. Nuclear ambition can kicked down the road for a few years.
We have 2.5 years of the current foreign policy, likely 0.5 years before they’re stymied by a non-compliant congressional branch. How long do the IRGC have? ALL they need to do is survive until those two milestones…
As an aside, I’ve been enjoying this discussion and all the differing viewpoints, so mods thanks for keeping it open despite the inevitable political discussion that it’s creating.
#1223
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,488
Likes: 137
#1224
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,488
Likes: 137
I wish I shared your optimism. Our repeated attempts to social engineer foreign cultures in that part of the world have failed miserably.
Best case scenario is we find a way to declare some kind of empty “victory”, pull back to the previous status quo (IF the IRGC even plays ball with that) while leaving an enormous mess we might be forced to revisit down the line. Nuclear ambition can kicked down the road for a few years.
We have 2.5 years of the current foreign policy, likely 0.5 years before they’re stymied by a non-compliant congressional branch. How long do the IRGC have? ALL they need to do is survive until those two milestones…
As an aside, I’ve been enjoying this discussion and all the differing viewpoints, so mods thanks for keeping it open despite the inevitable political discussion that it’s creating.
Best case scenario is we find a way to declare some kind of empty “victory”, pull back to the previous status quo (IF the IRGC even plays ball with that) while leaving an enormous mess we might be forced to revisit down the line. Nuclear ambition can kicked down the road for a few years.
We have 2.5 years of the current foreign policy, likely 0.5 years before they’re stymied by a non-compliant congressional branch. How long do the IRGC have? ALL they need to do is survive until those two milestones…
As an aside, I’ve been enjoying this discussion and all the differing viewpoints, so mods thanks for keeping it open despite the inevitable political discussion that it’s creating.
#1226
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,488
Likes: 137
#1227
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2022
Posts: 2,260
Likes: 421
#1228
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,488
Likes: 137
Well, as bad habits go, Whiskey is the American standard. There is sufficient reason to believe a plausible accord will be struck. But if the answer continues to come back never, there will be blood. For sure. So okay, I hear you. Time to take a stage break. So before I go, here’s to you kiddos..https://youtu.be/MHdXmQ8VPOM?si=Lr_dSRsNZVoDztz8
#1230
This generation doesn’t know Airplane…and now my next impression: Jesse Owens.
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