Economic Impacts of Iran War
04-25-2026 | 04:58 PM
#1311
Moderator
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 8,298
Likes: 1,305
Thanks for a measured reply.
I still think that squeezing China means squeezing the American public past the point that they are willing to tolerate. I hear a lot of talk about playing the long game vis a vis Iran, China, and Russia, but the long game has always been, and will continue to be a weak point for our country. That’s not going to change no matter how much we wish the reality were different. I would also argue that the US and Chinese economies are still intertwined enough that putting economic pressure (goes hand in hand with energy pressure obviously) on China has significant negative follow on effects in the US economy. Again, we may wish it weren’t so, but that’s the reality and will continue to be for at least some time. Finally, the last time we squeezed the energy supply of an Asian adversary, we wound up being pulled into a world war. Not saying that’s likely this time around, but it’s worth noting that we don’t make these decisions in a vacuum and other cultures tend to respond in ways that are hard for us to predict.
Again, thanks for the respectful discussion.
I still think that squeezing China means squeezing the American public past the point that they are willing to tolerate. I hear a lot of talk about playing the long game vis a vis Iran, China, and Russia, but the long game has always been, and will continue to be a weak point for our country. That’s not going to change no matter how much we wish the reality were different. I would also argue that the US and Chinese economies are still intertwined enough that putting economic pressure (goes hand in hand with energy pressure obviously) on China has significant negative follow on effects in the US economy. Again, we may wish it weren’t so, but that’s the reality and will continue to be for at least some time. Finally, the last time we squeezed the energy supply of an Asian adversary, we wound up being pulled into a world war. Not saying that’s likely this time around, but it’s worth noting that we don’t make these decisions in a vacuum and other cultures tend to respond in ways that are hard for us to predict.
Again, thanks for the respectful discussion.
For the moment, FWIW, I am still trusting his gut here. But not without concern. I will say, if history bears out that Iran really did have 60% enriched Uranium (the ONLY purpose for which is to build a nuke, despite the absolute lie of the Iranian fatwa against it - lying to the infidel is permissible in their holy book), then I feel this will all have been worth it. At least for the scenarios that are legitimately foreseeable. IMO, Iran among any nation absolutely cannot be trusted with a Nuke. Hillary Clinton said that. Heck, even Kamala Harris said that, on multiple occasions... Even Chuck Schumer denounced the JPCOA on the senate floor as insufficient. I was shocked when I saw that video (short version here - amazing how he has changed his tune...). I submit history will debate the "how" of we got here most.
I appreciate the respectful dialogue too. Far too little rational discussion in the western world, the US, and yes, here on APC too. Far too many people only see things only in the binary, almost exclusively in alignment with their tribe (though not all).
04-25-2026 | 10:12 PM
#1314
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,193
Likes: 254
yup too many people staring at WTI/Brent futures and thinking that’s all there is to the oil market.
Big picture this crisis will become a reality to Americans when critical shortages and ration starts for jet fuel and diesel in the May to June timeframe. Jet fuel and Diesel are middle distillates. Medium to heavy sour crude is the type of input needed into a refinery that yields higher output of these types of fuel. And this is the exact type of fuel stuck in the Hormuz.
The world has adequate amounts of gasoline with jet fuel and diesel critically short. Here in the states the critical shortages of jet fuel will start in May on the West Coast with rationing spreading to local outages. On the East Coast record exports to Europe will drain inventories and also result in rationing and localized outages. Mass flight cancellations and parking of jets likely. The Trump administration, sensing the urgency of the situation, is currently considering export ban of refined products.
Then in June comes critical diesel shortages affecting the transport of food and product. Get ready to pay 40-100% higher at the grocery store.
Even more dire, it’ll likely take 18+ months to resolve this crisis
Big picture this crisis will become a reality to Americans when critical shortages and ration starts for jet fuel and diesel in the May to June timeframe. Jet fuel and Diesel are middle distillates. Medium to heavy sour crude is the type of input needed into a refinery that yields higher output of these types of fuel. And this is the exact type of fuel stuck in the Hormuz.
The world has adequate amounts of gasoline with jet fuel and diesel critically short. Here in the states the critical shortages of jet fuel will start in May on the West Coast with rationing spreading to local outages. On the East Coast record exports to Europe will drain inventories and also result in rationing and localized outages. Mass flight cancellations and parking of jets likely. The Trump administration, sensing the urgency of the situation, is currently considering export ban of refined products.
Then in June comes critical diesel shortages affecting the transport of food and product. Get ready to pay 40-100% higher at the grocery store.
Even more dire, it’ll likely take 18+ months to resolve this crisis
04-25-2026 | 10:38 PM
#1315
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 9,460
Likes: 473
yup too many people staring at WTI/Brent futures and thinking that’s all there is to the oil market.
Big picture this crisis will become a reality to Americans when critical shortages and ration starts for jet fuel and diesel in the May to June timeframe. Jet fuel and Diesel are middle distillates. Medium to heavy sour crude is the type of input needed into a refinery that yields higher output of these types of fuel. And this is the exact type of fuel stuck in the Hormuz.
The world has adequate amounts of gasoline with jet fuel and diesel critically short. Here in the states the critical shortages of jet fuel will start in May on the West Coast with rationing spreading to local outages. On the East Coast record exports to Europe will drain inventories and also result in rationing and localized outages. Mass flight cancellations and parking of jets likely. The Trump administration, sensing the urgency of the situation, is currently considering export ban of refined products.
Then in June comes critical diesel shortages affecting the transport of food and product. Get ready to pay 40-100% higher at the grocery store.
Even more dire, it’ll likely take 18+ months to resolve this crisis
Big picture this crisis will become a reality to Americans when critical shortages and ration starts for jet fuel and diesel in the May to June timeframe. Jet fuel and Diesel are middle distillates. Medium to heavy sour crude is the type of input needed into a refinery that yields higher output of these types of fuel. And this is the exact type of fuel stuck in the Hormuz.
The world has adequate amounts of gasoline with jet fuel and diesel critically short. Here in the states the critical shortages of jet fuel will start in May on the West Coast with rationing spreading to local outages. On the East Coast record exports to Europe will drain inventories and also result in rationing and localized outages. Mass flight cancellations and parking of jets likely. The Trump administration, sensing the urgency of the situation, is currently considering export ban of refined products.
Then in June comes critical diesel shortages affecting the transport of food and product. Get ready to pay 40-100% higher at the grocery store.
Even more dire, it’ll likely take 18+ months to resolve this crisis
Yup. This is what the Robinhood crowd doesn’t understand. They do their daily check of WTI Brent futures and think all is well. The typical arrogant answer is “is it $150 yet?”
04-26-2026 | 05:03 AM
#1318
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,488
Likes: 137
04-26-2026 | 05:34 AM
#1319
Line Holder
Joined: Oct 2023
Posts: 491
Likes: 289
yup too many people staring at WTI/Brent futures and thinking that’s all there is to the oil market.
Big picture this crisis will become a reality to Americans when critical shortages and ration starts for jet fuel and diesel in the May to June timeframe. Jet fuel and Diesel are middle distillates. Medium to heavy sour crude is the type of input needed into a refinery that yields higher output of these types of fuel. And this is the exact type of fuel stuck in the Hormuz.
The world has adequate amounts of gasoline with jet fuel and diesel critically short. Here in the states the critical shortages of jet fuel will start in May on the West Coast with rationing spreading to local outages. On the East Coast record exports to Europe will drain inventories and also result in rationing and localized outages. Mass flight cancellations and parking of jets likely. The Trump administration, sensing the urgency of the situation, is currently considering export ban of refined products.
Then in June comes critical diesel shortages affecting the transport of food and product. Get ready to pay 40-100% higher at the grocery store.
Even more dire, it’ll likely take 18+ months to resolve this crisis
Big picture this crisis will become a reality to Americans when critical shortages and ration starts for jet fuel and diesel in the May to June timeframe. Jet fuel and Diesel are middle distillates. Medium to heavy sour crude is the type of input needed into a refinery that yields higher output of these types of fuel. And this is the exact type of fuel stuck in the Hormuz.
The world has adequate amounts of gasoline with jet fuel and diesel critically short. Here in the states the critical shortages of jet fuel will start in May on the West Coast with rationing spreading to local outages. On the East Coast record exports to Europe will drain inventories and also result in rationing and localized outages. Mass flight cancellations and parking of jets likely. The Trump administration, sensing the urgency of the situation, is currently considering export ban of refined products.
Then in June comes critical diesel shortages affecting the transport of food and product. Get ready to pay 40-100% higher at the grocery store.
Even more dire, it’ll likely take 18+ months to resolve this crisis
04-26-2026 | 07:29 AM
#1320
Line Holder
Joined: Aug 2022
Posts: 865
Likes: 156
Sucks that California (annd Hawaii) import a ton of their oil from foreign Countries. Also sucks they have roughly 20 less refineries than they did in decades past. Also sad they tax the sh!t out of their gas.
like I said earlier, you take CA out of the West Coast average price, it drops $0.40. I noticed we started carrying extra fuel to CA long before Iran started.
$40-100% more? So worse than [mod edit] years… sure pal. Gas at the pump isn’t at Joes record highs, yet you predict 2-5x the price increases his administration created trying to Build Back Better?
like I said earlier, you take CA out of the West Coast average price, it drops $0.40. I noticed we started carrying extra fuel to CA long before Iran started.
$40-100% more? So worse than [mod edit] years… sure pal. Gas at the pump isn’t at Joes record highs, yet you predict 2-5x the price increases his administration created trying to Build Back Better?
Last edited by FangsF15; 04-26-2026 at 10:58 AM. Reason: Remove partisan slight
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