Unfortunately to accept a lot of the arguments you make you have to believe what is being said by Hedgspeth and Trump. These are the same people that claimed the war was over, we have already won, the Iranian military is “obliterated” and that the strait is open expect for the shooting.

If all of that what they had claimed is true then why are the straits closed and Iran shooting and hitting high value targets daily.

I don’t believe we have won. Don’t believe anything that is said from the administration at the point as the lies to truth ratio has been exceeded on a “scale never seen before” to borrow a favorite phrase.

At the end of the day our economy, our retirement accounts and our jobs hang in the balance from the decisions of the past three weeks. I personally have very little optimism based on the facts.

 

Absolutely nothing I said was based on anything those two said. I rarely bother to listen to them (or their counterparts on the other side) because I already know what they're going to say anyhow.

Example, Trump just announced "No Boots on Ground".

I fully expected that because a significant % of his base does not care for foreign entanglements. Also possible that he's actually gearing up for raids and might be hoping to lull IR into complacency on that threat vector. He's done that kind of thing.

I'm not optimistic about profit sharing for 2026. But there's a decent chance this whole thing will be a net positive long-term, I'm intimately familiar with the strategic and tactical capabilities of IR, and our plan to delete most of them. The region will probably be more stable, with less proxy-induced disruption after the dust settles. There's just no way that doesn't math out... capabilities gone, economic prospects severely impaired. They simply cannot reconstitute to their previous position on anything short of a very long-term timeline.

 

It doesn’t really matter if a significant percentage of his base is against foreign engagements. They will change their mindset based on what the administration said/did last. It doesn’t matter what is said or steps actually taken. An example is your “boots on the ground” comment. He said that straight up but you are already willing to look past it. Not trying to pick on you, just making the point because you’re smart enough to know that this will lead to ground troops in the theater.

Integrity is a virtue for both the speaker AND listener.

This is well on track to put the world into a recession but the war was won in the first hour.

It’s a very interesting case study with regards to sociology but also sad as well.

 

I'm not looking past anything because I'm not (and never have been) a fan boy. So I don't need to rationalize. I also do not have TDS, so I can analyze the administration's behavior based on the merits.

I'm extremely opposed to any OIF/OEF style BoG. As is any rational person with an understanding of the nature of this problem set.

SOF and raids is somewhere between likely and inevitable due to again the nature of the problem set. I'll be surprised if none of that happens

 

Dont worry everyone! The self appointed chairman of the Board of Peace will bring stability back to the region through strategic..erm... excursions

 

The Pentagon is asking for an additional $200 billion for the war. I thought it was announced that we already won this thing after the first few days? Also where is this money coming from? The first year of this administration was all about cutting spending and cutting programs, departments and increasing efficiency. Now we're okay just spending more on foreign wars?

(This is not a partisan statement, this is a direct question from an upset American who is again seeing his tax dollars burned on a Middle East conflict while so much is needed here at home). We were promised no new conflicts, what gives?

 

Well the left overly uses the swap already. So there is no need to defend Joe. If Joe were putting his name on it I’d have more respect but they always hide, and Trump isn’t hiding.

ATF trying to take guns, OSHA enforcing COVID mask, EPA trying to govern carbon.

They love for the swamp to have all the authority then they run the swamp as they see fit. Then claim it’s authentic and not politics.

Joe gets no defense for always hiding behind some alphabet.

 

Ah, so.you only hide behind unquestioning allegiance to elected officials only when you personally have voted for them. Got it.

 

There’s got to exist mitigating factors but any lag won’t last long. Markets rise & fall on earnings. Regardless, transport is unlikely to avoid a turbulent shaking. No way to stay optimistic on supply forecasts.

Otoh, sub torping a frigate. Can you imagine the look on their faces as the shoot order was received. A thing like that, wow.

 

And when they land on Kharg Island, and tell you that that's not "the ground," will you believe them?