How do you figure Iran could shut down the Red Sea that is nearly 1,000 miles away from them?

 

Possibly Houthi proxies in Yemen? Seems like it would be a lot harder for them than the SoH though.

 

The Houthis are scattered and disorganized at best. They have not shown any signs of significant resistance other than small, uncoordinated attacks. The Saudis have put them in their place numerous times when they attack Saudi interests. Any attacks on commerce in the Red Sea would likely be met with swift, severe retorts from Saudi, Egypt, and possibly Israel and the US as well.

Egypt will respond to any major threats in the Red Sea as it would severely impact their income from the Suez Canal.

 

I still do not see any reasonable exit strategy here. The options are still:

1) Declare "victory" and end the bombing. However, a) Bibi wont' stop until he's set all of Iran ablaze, because if anyone benefits from continued chaos and war in the Middle East, it's him and his cronies. Also b) while we may have chiseled away at Iran's conventional military capabilities, all we have done is replace a wizened radical cleric with a younger, more radical, version of that cleric. (We also killed his wife, son, mother, and probably other family members, so I'm sure he's just chomping at the bit to negotiate with us.)

And we have done nothing to eliminate their asymmetric warfare capabilities, because that is logistically impossible. All they need are a few committed agents in the US, of whom I'm sure there are many. Nothing to stop a dirty bomb from being smuggled into Times Square. Not to mention cyber attacks -- but oops, Elon DOGE'd a significant portion of our cyber defense capability out of a job.

2) Continue the aerial campaign until we run out of military targets. Then what? Wipe out Iran's oil production facilities? The economic shock that would cause is too massive to contemplate.

3) Put boots on the ground. Now not only will we be involved in a quagmire with precisely zero chance of "winning" (I do not believe any rational person assumes that the United States can successfully invade and occupy the entire nation of Iran.) Iran also happens to border many of the former USSR's territories, so what happens when we send in ground forces near those borders? This is how World War III could easily start.

I always thought that guy Kent was a crazy conspiracy theorist, but his letter of resignation made perfect sense and I agreed with every word.

 

Agreed 100%.

The Iranian regime, like pretty much every other regime in history, has always been about one thing: maintaining its own power. To do so, the regime has ensured not only that 90 million people must live in fear, but that at least a few million of those people have a very vested interest in the regime's continued existence. Not just the generals and high-ranking bureaurats, but the low-level goons in the Basenji (militia force) who have helped turn a once-proud nation into a totalitarian theocracy.

As you say, that regime is now fighting for its very existence; they have no reason to exercise any restraint whatsoever. So when people say "this'll be over in a few weeks" -- I wish I had some of what they were smoking.

(Also, I give it two more weeks before Trumpstein threatens to nuke Tehran.)

 

Two weeks eh? Says it or does it? Heading off a Nagasaki Tehran is the whole point. Personally, I hope Gabbard’s right. But she’s admin toast either way.

 

No one thought this except Israel. Look at the guy who resigned and his letter - it speaks volumes.



Our allies are basing their actions on what they’ve seen from our leadership. Can’t say I blame them. They made the right call to refuse.


Better than ours. Literally no one thought that, certainly not our U.S. intelligence services.

 

https://youtu.be/sJmlybB4I3I?si=sBuMHfpnAxFgQL9f

"No policy response can stop crude's (oil) ascent"

Insanity. Our economy will become martyrs for the Zionist entity.

 

[QUOTE=ShyGuy;4014307]No one thought this except Israel. Look at the guy who resigned and his letter - it speaks volumes.





Our allies are basing their actions on what they’ve seen from our leadership. Can’t say I blame them. They made the right call to refuse.

More like the Euros are terrified of their failed immigration policy’s and their abysmal green energy initiatives.
I’m not surprised by their lack of helping, sadly they are not the Euros of Winston Churchill.

 

You spelled "over reliance on Russian oil, coal and natural gas" wrong.